"From late November to now, the store has been closed for almost two weeks." A few days ago, an employee of a 4S store of a joint venture brand in Beijing told the "Securities Daily" reporter that he was asked to wait at home at the end of last month, and there has been no further notice of resumption of work.

　　In an auto trade park located in Chaoyang District, Beijing, most of the stores are in a state of "closed stores".

The reporter learned from the on-duty staff stationed outside a self-owned brand store that the park was closed the day before yesterday afternoon (December 2), and normal operations still need to wait for notice.

　　The reporter of "Securities Daily" found in the interview and investigation that at present, due to the significant decline in customer flow in the store and the sales volume is lower than expected, the plan of the dealers in many places to hit the annual sales target at the end of the year has been disrupted again. Business survival pressure surged.

　　The terminal chill is also reflected in the stats.

According to the latest "China Auto Dealer Inventory Early Warning Index Survey" VIA released by the China Automobile Dealers Association (hereinafter referred to as the "Distribution Association"), in November, 41.2% of dealership stores were closed, and most of them were closed. The time is more than two weeks; more than 73% of the dealers cannot complete the sales task, and 61.1% of the dealers have a task completion rate of less than 80%.

Sales fell short of expectations in November

Multiple factors increase pressure on dealers

　　For a long time, the dealer inventory warning index has been regarded as a "barometer" of domestic auto market demand, and its level reflects the circulation status of China's auto market.

According to the latest survey on the inventory warning index of Chinese auto dealers, in November 2022, the inventory warning index of Chinese auto dealers was 65.3%, a year-on-year increase of 9.9 percentage points, significantly higher than the line of prosperity and decline.

　　According to the "Securities Daily" reporter, the inventory warning index adopts the expansion index compilation method, with 50% as the rise and fall line, and below 50% is within a reasonable range.

This means that the current dealer inventory index significantly exceeds the inventory safety line, and the domestic automobile production and sales environment is very severe.

　　The Circulation Association stated that from a national perspective, the auto market was relatively silent in November, passenger flow inevitably declined sharply, and the release of consumer demand for cars was hindered. big impact.

Due to factors such as increased inventory and shortage of working capital, some dealers have begun to implement layoffs and salary reduction measures, and the operating pressure is huge.

　　In fact, in October, the traditional peak sales season of "Silver Ten" this year, the sales performance of most car dealers was lower than expected.

On the one hand, due to the impact of new epidemics in various places in October, dealers in many places were unable to carry out promotional activities, the auto market was relatively quiet, and the weakening of market demand made October show the characteristics of "not busy in peak season".

　　On the other hand, due to the purchase tax reduction policy, the consumer demand for automobiles has been released from June to September, and the effective demand in the market has been relatively low after being overdrawn.

To sum up, the sales performance of automobile terminals in October was not satisfactory, only around 1.85 million vehicles.

　　It was November, and the plight of terminal sales had not been significantly improved.

According to the survey, in November, my country's auto market demand and the average daily sales volume of dealership stores and other indexes all declined.

Among them, the market demand index fell by 7.8% month-on-month, the dealer operation index fell by 8.1% month-on-month, the average daily sales of stores fell by 8.5 percentage points, and the employee index fell by 6.5%.

Due to the blocked operation of dealerships and the weakening demand of consumers for car purchases, it is expected that the sales volume of automobile terminals in November will be around 1.7 million.

　　In this regard, Lang Xuehong, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Dealers Association, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that most dealers hope that the policy of halving the purchase tax by the end of this year can be continued, and the scope of benefits will be expanded to cover all passenger cars.

The Circulation Association hopes that local governments will continue to introduce promotional policies such as cash subsidies, rent reduction, and issuance of car purchase coupons, and calls on OEMs to overcome difficulties with dealers based on the actual situation of the epidemic, appropriately adjust sales task targets, and reduce dealer inventory and financial constraints. pressure.

Car dealers are actively preparing for the battle

Looking forward to the end of the year hikes

　　It is worth mentioning that, unlike previous years, the national new energy vehicle subsidy policy that has lasted for 13 years will be officially withdrawn at the end of this year.

At the end of 2021, four departments including the Ministry of Finance issued the "Notice on the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in 2022".

　　At the same time, the policy of halving the vehicle purchase tax for fuel vehicles that lasts for half a year will also expire at the end of this year.

On May 31, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced that between June 1 and December 31, 2022, the vehicle purchase tax will be halved for passenger cars with a displacement of 2.0 liters and below of no more than 300,000 yuan.

　　Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, believes that if the policy of halving the purchase tax is not continued next year, the domestic auto market will experience tail growth in the fourth quarter of this year.

"Consumers will seize the tail end of this policy dividend to speed up car purchases, and companies will also speed up supply." At the same time, Chen Shihua is also worried about the early consumption driven by the policy-it is not ruled out that the sales of the domestic auto market will decline significantly in the beginning of next year. There may even be a cliff-like decline.

　　In this regard, Lang Xuehong holds a different attitude.

"At this stage, many dealers are still pessimistic about the market in December, thinking that it is difficult for the auto market to reproduce the enthusiasm at the end of previous years, so the possibility of a tail-swing market is not high."