(Economic Observer) The RMB exchange rate has risen sharply, what is the future trend?

  China News Agency, Beijing, December 4 (Reporter Xia Bin) On the latest trading day, the spot exchange rate of offshore RMB against the US dollar hit the highest value of 7.0026, which is only one step away from breaking the integer mark of "7".

The picture shows that on November 1st, a staff member of a bank in Taiyuan, Shanxi is counting currency.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Yun

  This week (November 28 to December 4), the RMB exchange rate has risen significantly.

On December 2, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was quoted at 7.0542, an increase of 1447 basis points for three consecutive trading days.

The onshore and offshore renminbi against the US dollar spot exchange rate also rose strongly, closing at 7.0195 and 7.0163 respectively on the last trading day of this week.

  After the sharp rise approaching 7, what is the future trend of the RMB exchange rate?

At the ongoing International Finance Forum (IFF) 2022 Global Annual Conference, a number of chief economists analyzed and expected the trend of the RMB exchange rate.

  Xia Le, Chief Economist for Asia at BBVA, said that the United States continued to raise interest rates this year, which brought great depreciation pressure on the RMB exchange rate. Coupled with the epidemic and other "headwind factors", the RMB exchange rate fell below 7 in the second half of the year.

However, some positive changes have been seen recently. As some uncertainties subside, the RMB exchange rate has recently rebounded.

  In the view of Gao Shanwen, chief economist of Essence Securities, the reasons for the depreciation of the RMB this year include the strengthening of the US dollar and the slowdown of domestic economic growth, and these factors have weakened significantly or are improving.

  Gao Shanwen believes that the RMB exchange rate is currently overshooting, and it is expected that there will be little suspense about "reversely breaking expectations" in the future. It just depends on "what kind of path is used to realize it and what level it will rise to."

  Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist of Ping An Securities, said that if the epidemic situation next year is better than expected, compensatory consumption is higher than expected, and the policy of stabilizing growth remains consistent and consistent, then China's economic performance will achieve a stable recovery and get better and better. The strongest support for the RMB exchange rate.

  Recently, the RMB exchange rate fluctuated up and down.

In this regard, Nomura Securities China chief economist Lu Ting believes that such a "stalemate" state may remain for a period of time.

The possibility of another sharp depreciation of the RMB is very small, and the RMB exchange rate next year will most likely fluctuate within a relatively small range.

  "Looking at it now, the future trend of the renminbi still has certain uncertainties. Its trend depends on the pace of the Fed's interest rate hike and the market's judgment on other major currencies." UBS Securities China chief economist Wang Tao believes that with the epidemic situation With the improvement and external confidence in China's economy rebounding, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar should appreciate in the second half of next year.

  Ding Shuang, Chief Economist for China and North Asia at Standard Chartered Bank, also said that the policy of the People's Bank of China will remain loose in the short term. Appreciated.