Under the influence of cold weather, the rapid drop in temperature in the north has led to a phased improvement in coal demand, and coal prices are expected to be bullish.
According to public data, quotations from coal traders have stopped falling and rebounded recently.
Last week (as of December 2), the market price of Qingang 5,500 kcal thermal coal was 1,350 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 5.47%.
The Guosheng Securities Research Report believes that the economy continues to be stable and positive in the fourth quarter. In addition to the frequent occurrence of extreme weather this year, the "La Nina" event may continue to lead to low temperatures this winter.
It is expected that the fourth quarter of this year will be the peak season for coal consumption.
Ji Shaoqing, deputy director of the Operations Department of the China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association, said in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily: "Recently, after the price reduction of large groups, the prices of most coal mines in the pits of the production areas have been adjusted accordingly, and other factors have been superimposed. The downstream demand is not sustainable. At present, domestic coal mines still mainly guarantee supply. At the same time, it is now approaching the end of 2022. The holiday of factories near the Spring Festival and the arrival of low-priced imported coal, and the downstream inventory is higher than in previous years are all factors for the downward price. Recently, with the sharp cooling of the weather and The previous price continued to be adjusted, and some coal mines with a large decline in shipments have improved, and the price has also seen a slight correction, but from the current point of view, this adjustment is somewhat lacking in stamina."
Cold wave drives up demand for coal
Policies to increase supply guarantees
Looking back at November, in the first half of the year, due to the year-on-year increase in global temperatures, the demand was lower than expected, and coal prices were under pressure.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on November 24, compared with the first ten days of November, the prices of all kinds of coal in the country fell in mid-November, and the decline in thermal coal prices expanded significantly.
The price of Shanxi large mix (calorific value 5,000 kcal) was 1,282.9 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%; the price of Shanxi excellent mix (calorific value 5,500 kcal) was 1,482.9 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7%.
According to the data monitoring of the coal search network, as of November 28, the 5,500k coal in the production area has fallen by 230 yuan/ton in a week, and the 5,000k coal in the port has fallen by 100 yuan/ton in a week.
The research report released by Meierya Futures mentioned that since late October, due to the weak downstream demand, the prices of ports and production areas have experienced a sharp decline. Ton directly dropped to below 1300 yuan/ton.
Recently, as the cold wave hits and the demand for coal increases as the north enters the heating season, coal port prices rebounded slightly after November 29.
On November 30, the main force of thermal coal in the domestic futures market rose by 9.99% to close at 988.8 yuan/ton.
On December 2, the closing price of thermal coal futures was 988.6 yuan/ton.
Kaiyuan Securities analyzed in the research report that the overseas energy crisis is still severe. In October, the import of thermal coal in Western Europe rose by 20.6% year-on-year and 34% month-on-month. The amount of coal poses a big challenge; on the demand side, the whole country will enter the heating season in November, the daily consumption of electric coal is expected to jump sharply, and the replenishment will continue.
Coal is the "ballast stone" to ensure my country's energy security. In the context of increasing demand, in order to ensure a stable supply of coal during the peak winter, my country has stepped up policies to ensure supply.
On November 30, the website of the National Development and Reform Commission stated that it has set up a special team for increasing production capacity in conjunction with relevant member units of the inter-ministerial coordination mechanism for coal, electricity, oil and gas transportation guarantee work, and urged all coal-producing provinces and central enterprises to fully tap their potential to expand capacity and increase production. Strengthen the element guarantee service, coordinate and solve the difficulties and problems existing in the process of coal expansion and production increase.
The National Development and Reform Commission pointed out that the current coal supply situation is generally good.
Since the full heating period, the supply of thermal coal in nationally-adjusted power plants has remained high, exceeding the consumption of thermal coal for several consecutive days, and the coal stock has remained at a historically high level of around 175 million tons.
Wang Shuai, an analyst at Huatai Securities, believes that "unless there is a cold winter with an intensity and duration that exceeds expectations or a serious production disturbance in the production area, the coal inventory of the whole society will not decline rapidly and sharply during the winter peak this year."
Coal price rebound limited
The overall level is expected to remain high
Although it is about to enter the peak demand season to meet the winter peak, experts and institutions believe that the thermal coal price in the market outlook does not have the conditions for a sharp rise.
Wu Wanying, a senior researcher at Tianyi Digital Economy Think Tank, told the "Securities Daily" reporter: "The cold wave is coming, and the demand for heating coal has increased, which has increased the enthusiasm for shipments, which will help the price of thermal coal to rise. However, the current demand recovery is unstable. There is no significant expansion expectation in the next step, and the supply and demand pattern is still loose. Overlaying the restraining effect of winter supply and price stability, the price rebound is expected to be limited. In addition, the coastal coal market is still dominated by medium and long-term contracts, and the proportion of market supply is low. Considering that the price agreed in the medium and long-term contract is relatively stable, the thermal coal market price is less likely to fluctuate violently.”
In the view of the person in charge of Jizhong Energy, a listed coal company, "In the fourth quarter, with the coming of the heating season, the coal market will present a state of high demand, high supply and high inventory. The overall coal market is expected to maintain a high level. Heating in winter will continue to run at a high level. In terms of demand, the coal market is still rigidly supported. Whether the macro economy can recover remains to be seen, and the growth rate of demand will likely shrink. Under the policy of increasing production and ensuring supply, thermal coal supply will continue to increase significantly. The price will be closer to the guaranteed supply price when the supply capacity is strengthened, and the gap between the market price and the guaranteed supply price is expected to narrow."