The European Union (EU) will take the next steps in the economic dispute against Russia on Monday.
With a price cap for the transport of Russian oil and a European embargo for Russian crude oil transported by ship, the governments are trying to fill Russia's war chest less, without allowing the price of oil to rise sharply.
Jan Hauser
Editor in Business.
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However, according to energy economist Andreas Loechel, expectations should not be too high.
"The way the oil price cap is now knitted, it will have manageable effects," he told the FAZ. "Europe should have tackled this much earlier and preferably with an import duty."
The Bochum professor sees the height of the price cap as a compromise between the different countries, which sometimes wanted more and sometimes less severe interventions.
The intention to keep Russian oil on the global market is currently predominant.
The lid is relatively weak.
Ukraine criticizes the height of the cap
The EU, together with America, Canada, Japan, Australia and Great Britain, is banking on a price cap for Russian oil of $60 per barrel (159 litres) below the most recent market price of $69: Only if the selling price through Russia does not exceed $60 are they allowed Shipping companies from the said countries will continue to transport oil from Russia with their ships from Monday.
Both the EU countries and the G-7 countries decided that at the weekend.
In addition to transport, the EU is also leveraging services such as insurance to keep the Russian oil price below the threshold.
European shipping companies operate more than half of all tankers in the world, according to Brussels officials.
Ukraine supports an oil price cap but criticizes the $60 figure as too high.
At the same time as the oil price cap, the long-decided oil embargo against Russia in the EU will gradually begin on Monday, as a result of which no more oil from Russia will arrive by sea in the countries of the Union.
Germany also intends to forgo Russian oil supplies via the Druzhba pipeline by the end of the year.
According to Loechel, the prices for many oil shipments from Russia are likely to be such that they are often below the cap of $60 per barrel.
"Many deliveries already have to be sold at significantly lower prices because the transport costs for Russian oil are so high," he said.
"In many cases, not much will happen." Therefore, the repercussions on the oil market should not be particularly large.
However, that depends on how the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies (OPEC+) act.
Loeschel expects these countries to adopt a tightening strategy, also because oil prices are relatively moderate compared to coal and gas.
Russia is one of the countries involved and could exert pressure to tighten volumes and raise prices.
For gas station prices in Germany, Loeschel is currently not expecting a sharp increase.
After all, these are still comparatively high compared to oil prices.
OPEC maintains the production volumes
The OPEC countries led by Saudi Arabia and ten other partner countries agreed two months ago to reduce production by two million barrels a day from November.
That was the sharpest drop since 2020 at the beginning of the Corona crisis.
On Sunday, the countries agreed to maintain the current production levels.
China, India and Egypt are currently buying a large part of Russian oil.
Oil is a far more important source of income for Russia than natural gas.
For Loezel, the most important thing about the oil price cap is that this instrument now exists against Russia, thereby expanding the strategic room for manoeuvre.
"That gives the opportunity to quickly limit the financial options if desired," he said.
The price cap can be adjusted relatively quickly.
It's late now, but the limitation of financial possibilities is important.
"We sent a lot of money to Russia this year," he said.
"This could have been avoided with a quick price cap or an import tax on gas."
Russia would hardly have been able to avoid it in the short term, and a large part of the proceeds from the price increases would have stayed in Europe.
There are now increasing opportunities to circumvent the oil sanctions.
Russia is said to have bought around 100 used oil tankers in order to stay in business, reports the Financial Times, citing data from a ship broker.
However, Russia does not have enough transport vessels to sustain current exports.
According to Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, every dollar less per barrel could reduce Russian oil revenues by two billion dollars or the equivalent of 1.9 billion euros a year.
Economist Jacob Nell had predicted that the oil embargo and price cap would halve Russia's revenues to under $150 billion in the coming year.
He sees this as a crucial threshold.
"It is the level from which the ruble collapsed in 2008, 2014 and 2020, the banks got into trouble and the general vulnerability of the Russian financial system became clear," he told "Capital".