Large-denomination certificates of deposit have always been the "storage weapon" of commercial banks. Although many banks have lowered the interest rates of large-denomination certificates of deposit or tightened the quota this year, the sales of large-denomination certificates of deposit are still hot.
Recently, Rong 360 Digital Technology Research Institute released the "Report on Bank Large-denomination Certificates of Deposit in November 2022". The report shows that the number of large-denomination certificates of deposit issued in November and the average interest rate of large-denomination certificates of deposit for certain periods have declined.
Judging from the issuance of large-denomination certificates of deposit in each quarter of this year, according to the data released by the People's Bank of China, the issuance of large-denomination certificates of deposit in the first, second, and third quarters of this year was 450 million yuan, 300 million yuan, and 270 million yuan respectively.
Regarding the issuance of large-denomination certificates of deposit in the fourth quarter, Liu Yinping, an analyst at Rong 360 Digital Technology Research Institute, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that the fourth quarter will not change much compared with the third quarter.
Around New Year's Day and Spring Festival is the peak period for banks to collect deposits, so the issuance of large-denomination certificates of deposit in the first quarter is relatively large.
In the fourth quarter, some banks have tight issuance quotas for large-denomination certificates of deposit, and the issuance volume may decrease. However, some banks are facing financial pressure at the end of the year, and their efforts to attract deposits have increased, and the issuance of large-denomination certificates of deposit may increase.
Interest rate reduction for large certificates of deposit
still in short supply
Since the beginning of this year, due to the continuous reduction of bank deposit and loan interest rates, the interest rates of bank large-denomination certificates of deposit have also continued to decrease. At present, most large-denomination certificates of deposit remain between 2% and 3.5%.
Taking the three-year large-denomination certificate of deposit product as an example, the current large-denomination certificate of deposit interest rate of large state-owned banks is generally around 3.1%; the interest rate of large-denomination certificate of deposit of joint-stock banks is slightly higher, mostly between 3.25% and 3.5%; The product interest rate is higher, which can reach about 3.5%.
According to the data monitored by Rong360 Digital Technology Research Institute, the average interest rate of some large-denomination certificates of deposit in November fell month-on-month.
Specifically, the 3-month average interest rate of large-denomination certificates of deposit issued in November 2022 is 1.795%, the 6-month average interest rate is 2%, the 1-year average interest rate is 2.196%, and the 2-year average interest rate is 2.736% , the 3-year average interest rate is 3.296%, and the 5-year average interest rate is 3.441%.
Compared with October, the 5-year certificates of deposit issued in November saw the largest decline, with a month-on-month decline of 11.2BP; followed by the 1-year large-denomination certificates of deposit, whose average interest rate fell by 2.9BP month-on-month, and the 3-year certificates of deposit fell by 0.2BP month-on-month.
Although interest rates on large-denomination certificates of deposit are falling, investors' enthusiasm for buying large-denomination certificates of deposit has not decreased but has risen, especially for long-term large-denomination certificates of deposit. Some banks are tight.
A financial manager of a certain bank told reporters that recently, prudent investors still favor large-denomination certificates of deposit. Due to the limited amount released in each issue, large-denomination certificates of deposit with certain maturities are even sold out, requiring investors to rush to buy them.
"In the past two years, my country's economic growth has been under great pressure, and the investment style of ordinary people tends to be conservative. Although the interest rate of large-denomination certificates of deposit has continued to decline, investors are still favored by capital preservation and high security. During the period of falling interest rates, buying long-term large-denomination certificates of deposit , You can also lock in the current relatively high interest rates in advance." Liu Yinping told reporters.
Du Yang, a postdoctoral fellow of the Bank of China Research Institute, said in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily that although the interest rate on large-denomination certificates of deposit has been lowered, it is still one of the important choices for investors to maintain and increase the value of their assets.
On the one hand, the implementation of the new regulations on asset management has brought the asset management business back to its origin of “being entrusted by others to manage money on behalf of clients” and entering a stage of high-quality development.
Wealth management business is to break the rigid redemption and realize net value transformation.
On the other hand, since the beginning of this year, the international political and economic situation has been turbulent, domestic epidemics have been repeated locally, the economic recovery process has been affected to a certain extent, and capital market volatility has intensified, which has increased investors' risk aversion.
In this context, large-denomination certificates of deposit, as long-term stable deposit products with relatively high returns, are more in line with the investment needs of current residents.
Future issuance scale
or keep growing
According to the data released by the People's Bank of China, judging from the issuance of large-denomination certificates of deposit in the past few years, the issuance of large-denomination certificates of deposit in and before 2017 was relatively low, and the total issuance in 2017 was only 6.2 trillion yuan.
The total issuance in 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021 will be 9.23 trillion yuan, 12 trillion yuan, 9.7 trillion yuan and 11.3 trillion yuan respectively.
In the first half of 2022, the total amount of large-denomination certificates of deposit issued was 7.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.3 trillion yuan year-on-year. Among them, the issuance of large-denomination certificates of deposit in the first quarter, the second quarter, and the third quarter were 450 million yuan, 300 million yuan, and 270 million yuan. .
The total amount of large-denomination certificates of deposit issued in the first three quarters was 10.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.6%.
Du Yang told the "Securities Daily" reporter that the issuance of large-denomination certificates of deposit in the first three quarters of this year has increased compared with the same period last year, mainly because banks have greatly increased credit extension this year, so liquidity supplementation is needed on the liability side to support The sustainable development of the loan business and the moderate increase in the issuance of large-denomination certificates of deposit reflect that banks have a stronger demand for active liability management and more flexible active liability management capabilities.
Ming Ming, Chief Economist of CITIC Securities believes: “On the one hand, it is because the demand side has a high willingness to allocate, and investors need low-risk assets with definite returns in the context of market volatility; on the other hand, the bank’s liability side is also under pressure. , so take the initiative to increase the supply. For banks, although the reduction of deposit interest rates can control costs, it is also easy to cause the problem of 'moving deposits', especially in the context of wealth management funds and other financial products becoming more and more abundant. Banks hope that By issuing large-denomination certificates of deposit, we will supplement the funds on the liability side and improve the stability of liabilities.”
Regarding the future issuance of large-denomination certificates of deposit, Mingming said that in the context of the reform of deposit interest rates and the reduction of superimposed credit interest rates, banks will not "purchase deposits at high interest rates" in order to ensure the net interest margin space, so the interest rate of large-denomination certificates of deposit is easy to drop. Lift.
However, considering that compared with ordinary deposits, large-denomination certificates of deposit are more attractive to depositors and are also a more efficient channel for banks to replenish their liabilities, so the issuance scale of large-denomination certificates of deposit is expected to remain relatively high. speed up.