The role of a price cap is generally to ensure lower prices: the oil price cap, which went into effect on Monday along with an EU embargo on Russian oil transported by ship, appears to be having the opposite effect.
In any case, oil prices initially rose sharply on Monday under the new regulations, at times to $87.97 per barrel (159 liter barrel) for the North Sea variety Brent and to $82.20 for the American variety West Texas Intermediate, before there was a countermovement gave.
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How does that fit together?
The aim of the political regulations is to limit Russia's oil revenues.
Therefore, the European Union has decided on an embargo for imports into its territory, but initially with various exceptions, especially for oil that comes by pipeline.
In addition, the price cap of $60 per barrel for Russian Urals oil also applies to companies from the EU, the United States, Canada, Japan, Australia and Great Britain that transport oil on their ships or insure the cargo.
Oil Price Rise to More Than $100?
The first analysts now consider a rise in the price of oil to more than 100 dollars possible in the next few months.
While the EU embargo and G-7 price cap could limit Russia's business income, the regulations for the world market are likely to have a price-driving effect, it is argued: Russia has announced that it no longer wants to supply countries that participate in the price cap .
Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Nowak reiterated this on Russian state television.
The world supply of oil could be temporarily declining if Russia does not manage to switch to other sales countries quickly.
"In fact, the relatively low price cap could result in a higher oil price level on the world market," said Frank Schallenberger, oil specialist at Bank LBBW.
After long talks about 65 to 70 dollars per barrel for the cap, the limit is now 60 dollars and thus below what was previously paid for Russian oil of the Urals variety.
"This relatively low price cap could well result in Russian oil production being throttled and the global oil supply falling as a result - because the relatively low price reduces the incentive for Russia to keep oil production at a relatively high level," says Schallenberger.
In his estimation, the European Union's import ban is likely to lead to logistical difficulties.
In October, the EU still had around 1,
4 million barrels of oil per day imported from Russia, up from 2.5 million barrels per day around January.
Since the diversion of oil to India and China is not likely to succeed 100 percent any time soon, the Russian oil supply will probably initially fall quite significantly.
"I expect a minus of 0.5 to 1 million barrels per day," said Schallenberger: "So it's quite possible that shortages on the oil market will soon be played out again."