Unanimity among experts on unemployment data: "They are distorted"
Unemployment fell by 33,512 people
in
November
to the
lowest level
for this month since
2007
, figures that point to the good performance of the labor market compared to economic growth -which is still below the levels prior to the pandemic-, but which are
involved in doubts
due to the controversy about how permanent-intermittent workers without activity are classified.
This is the
second largest drop in unemployment
in the entire historical series for this month, which leaves the number of
unemployed
in the country at
2,881,380
, according to data released this Friday by the Public State Employment Service (
SEPE
).
The problem is that
this statistic does not include
among the registered unemployed those who have this type of contract promoted by the
labor reform
and who are in a
period of inactivity
and receiving -in some cases-
the unemployment benefit
.
And, although they do not appear among the registered unemployed because they are not exactly so, the problem is that they do not appear broken down anywhere else either.
The statistics do point out that there has been an
increase
in the month of November
of 110,697 people
who
demand a new job being employed
and there are both fixed-discontinuous without activity, as well as those employed with a job who want to change jobs, such as those affected by a Temporary Employment Regulation File (ERTE).
Until the Job Seekers Statistics is published, it will be unknown how many of them are permanent-intermittently inactive.
Given the doubts about the reliability of the unemployment data first planted by the Fundación de Estudios de Economía Aplicada (
Fedea
, the largest independent
think tank
) and later supported by different study services in the country, it is preferable to analyze the data from
affiliation to Social Security
, which in November
fell by 155 people.
This means that, in terms of registrations and withdrawals of workers from Social Security, last month was -with the exception of the pandemic years, 2020 and 2021-
the best November since 2015,
as the Minister of Security had already announced. Social, José Luis Escrivá, in the middle of the month.
With this decrease in the number of workers, the total number of
affiliates
in the country stands at
20,283,630,
according to data also released today.
2,800 less self-employed workers and loss of 101,700 affiliates in the hospitality industry
The good performance of the affiliation is a sign that employment is resisting despite the economic environment of uncertainty, the slowdown in economic growth and high inflation.
"
The affiliation continues to pull
, and therefore
it cannot be said that the labor market is falling.
The registered unemployment data is always more difficult to interpret as a barometer of the situation. And it is true that this
has become
more complicated with the
increase in fixed -discontinuous, a group that, due to the lack of work, is classified as inactive,"
Raymond Torres
, director of the
Funcas
Economic Situation , pointed out to this outlet this morning
.
Although in average terms the number of affiliates fell slightly, in some sectors important fluctuations are detected, such as in the hotel and
catering industry
, where
101,751 jobs
were lost (in this drop in affiliation all the fixed-discontinuous ones that have passed from the activity to inactivity).
On the contrary, the sector with the highest number of workers has been
education
, with the incorporation of
27,670 people.
By regimes,
2,801 self-employed workers have been lost
in the month, while in the General Regime there has been a
loss of 5,166 jobs
that has been offset by the
gain of 6,674 jobs in agriculture
and
2,360 new household employees.
According to the criteria of The Trust Project
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Social Security
Jose Luis Escriva
Unemployment
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ERTE
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Articles Alejandra Olcese