The central bank's end-of-month reverse repurchase has increased——

　　send positive signals to the market

　　Our reporter Yao Jin

　　Recently, the People's Bank of China has gradually increased its reverse repurchase operations, changing from last week's net withdrawal to this week's net release.

On November 30, the People's Bank of China launched a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 170 billion yuan through interest rate bidding.

On the 29th, the People's Bank of China carried out a reverse repurchase operation of 80 billion yuan, and the open market realized a net investment of 78 billion yuan. Adding the net investment of 52 billion yuan on the 28th, a net investment of 130 billion yuan has been realized in two days.

　　Statistics show that from November 21st to November 25th, the scale of reverse repurchase by the People’s Bank of China in a single day was all within 10 billion yuan, and the cumulative investment was 23 billion yuan. billion.

Industry insiders believe that the open market in the past few weeks has been dominated by net withdrawals, because the central bank increased the amount of open market at the end of October, and the medium-term lending facility (MLF) in November continued to shrink.

Since the beginning of this week, the People's Bank of China has increased its open market operations because before the RRR cut funds are in place, there is limited room for further decline in short-term interest rates near the end of the month. scale.

　　On November 25, the central bank announced a comprehensive RRR cut, which will reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points on December 5 (excluding financial institutions that have implemented a 5% deposit reserve ratio), releasing a total of about 500 billion long-term funds Yuan.

After this reduction, the weighted average deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions is about 7.8%.

According to industry insiders, this reverse repurchase is a liquidity management for possible capital fluctuations at the end of the month before the RRR cut releases funds in place. It is intended to stabilize the supply and demand of short-term funds and interest rates, and continue to send positive signals to the market. .

　　Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Market Department of Everbright Bank, believes that the central bank’s moderate increase in short-term net investment is mainly due to the recent fluctuations in market interest rates, and the moderate increase in open market operations near the end of the month is conducive to stabilizing funds across months and stabilizing market expectations .

As usual, the central bank will moderately adjust the intensity of open market operations in early December.

　　"Although the central bank withdrew reverse repurchase funds last week, the RRR cut announced on November 25 reflects that the purpose of the current monetary policy is to maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity, promote a steady decline in comprehensive financing costs, implement a package of policy measures to stabilize the economy, and consolidate The economy is on a stable upward basis.” CITIC Securities Chief Economist Ming Ming said that the trend of market interest rates returning to policy interest rates will not change, and capital fabrics will remain relatively stable under the control of the central bank.

　　Looking forward to December, I clearly believe that there will be no liquidity gap in December (without considering the maturity of MLF and reverse repurchase), but considering that fiscal expenditures are often concentrated at the end of the month, and there is pressure on banks to assess at the end of the year, some timing points cannot be ruled out. The possibility of tighter funding.

　　"It is expected that the fund will be stable within the month. The reason is that the market liquidity has generally remained reasonable and abundant in the near future, and the domestic relief and economic stabilization policies have continued to exert force." Zhou Maohua said that the demand for liquidity generally increased at the end of the year.

However, with the implementation of RRR cuts, fiscal funds, and structural monetary policy tools, it is expected that liquidity will remain reasonably sufficient in December. The central bank will flexibly adjust open market operations to smooth out short-term capital fluctuations.

　　Based on the previous actions of the central bank in open market operations, since this year, the central bank has become more flexible in the scale of reverse repurchase operations. The 7-day and 14-day reverse repurchase are used together. At important time points such as the end of the month and before the holiday Release a strong signal of stability to smooth market liquidity.

When announcing the RRR cut on November 25, the central bank also emphasized that it should increase the implementation of prudent monetary policy, focus on supporting the real economy, refrain from flooding, take into account internal and external balance, and better utilize the dual functions of monetary policy tools in aggregate and structure. Maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, keep the growth rate of money supply and social financing scale basically matching the nominal economic growth rate, support financing in key areas and weak links, and promote the effective improvement of quality and reasonable growth of the economy.

　　"The central bank's RRR cut is mainly to supplement the liquidity level, stabilize bond market expectations, and hedge against the pressure of the epidemic. The follow-up aggregate wide monetary space will be narrowed, and the short-term interest rate will mainly fluctuate." Mingming believes that the current monetary policy goal is still stable. Growth, loose credit, and RRR cuts are coordinated with a series of recent policies. However, judging from the magnitude of this RRR cut and the central bank’s concerns about inflation and other issues, it is still necessary to continue to avoid excessive currency issuance in the future.

In addition, considering the previous shrinkage of MLF and the limited room for further easing of monetary policy, from a medium-term perspective, short-term interest rates may continue to be adjusted.

(Economic Daily)