The Paper reporter Chen Yueshi
With the central bank's full-scale RRR cut coming soon (December 5), how the capital will go at the end of the year, how to view the loose room for monetary policy tools, and how the capital interest rate will return to the policy interest rate have become hot spots in the market.
CICC pointed out that the RRR cut will help the funds to return to stability. Following the repurchase rate, the interest rate on deposit certificates may return to a low level, and the restoration of the funds will eventually drive the interest rate to fall. "After the central bank increased the amount of OMO reverse repurchase , the margin of the repurchase interest rate has fallen back, combined with the release of funds from the RRR cut, as well as the potential financial release in December and the support of the net foreign exchange settlement of enterprises, it is estimated that the inter-bank liquidity will remain loose before the end of the year, and the price of repurchase funds may resume fell to the lowest level in the year."
Kaiyuan Securities pointed out that there was no obvious gap in liquidity in December.
Among them, in terms of government bonds, it is estimated that the net financing scale of government bonds in December will be about 350 billion yuan, which is slightly lower than the 606.8 billion yuan in November; the total net financing scale of government bonds is about 500 billion yuan, and the supply pressure is slightly higher than that in November; In terms of fiscal expenditure, it is expected that the scale of generalized fiscal net expenditure in December will exceed 2 trillion, which will provide strong support for the funds in December.
In December, 500 billion medium-term lending facilities (MLF) will expire. On the basis of the RRR cut and the release of 500 billion, Tianfeng Securities believes that referring to the central bank’s operation in December last year, it is very likely to shrink and continue.
CITIC Securities believes that judging from the recent attitude of the central bank’s monetary policy operations, it is unlikely that the central bank will quickly tighten liquidity, and its attitude towards maintaining financial stability is still clear.
RRR cuts do not mean that the monetary policy has shifted to further easing. At present, concerns about inflation still exist, and the focus of the central bank's work is still to ease credit and stabilize growth. Therefore, the room for subsequent monetary expansion may have narrowed.
Regarding the funding rate, CICC believes that overall, with the RRR cut plus seasonal liquidity support, it is expected that the overnight repurchase rate in December may remain at 1.1%-1.4%, and the 7-day repurchase rate may remain at 1.5%-1.8% %, the one-year certificate of deposit interest rate is expected to gradually fall back to the level of 2.0%-2.2%, and the 10-year treasury bond yield will also fall back to around 2.7%-2.8%.
"Although the central bank emphasizes on providing a suitable liquidity environment for the economic work at the end of the year, in general, we believe that there is such a possibility that as long as the policy of stabilizing growth will be further strengthened in the future, the funding rate will converge to the policy rate. That is to say, in the process of subsequent stable growth, the combination of wide currency and wide credit is reflected on the fund side, which may be different from the situation in April-August this year. It is recommended that the fund rate in December be 1.75% Estimate." Tianfeng Securities believes.