The inflation rate in Germany fell in November.

As the Federal Statistical Office announced on Tuesday based on an initial estimate, it was 10.0 percent.

In October, the inflation rate was still 10.4 percent.

Christian Siedenbiedel

Editor in Business.

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This was the first time after several price jumps that inflation had fallen again.

Although consumer prices in Germany also fell temporarily in June, this was a special situation related to the introduction of the fuel discount and 9-euro ticket.

Inflation in Germany has tended to increase since the turn of the year 2020/2021.

"A silver lining on the horizon", commented the economist Holger Schmieding: "With luck we have the inflation peak behind us."

Inflation trend reversal debate

A discussion had already begun among economists last week as to whether inflation might have already peaked.

The main reason for this was lower energy prices.

The price of oil has fallen significantly again compared to the summer months and recently petrol and diesel at the filling station had become at least a little cheaper again.

The gas market has also developed less dramatically than previously assumed, at least up until now.

The so-called producer prices, which reflect the development of prices at company level, surprisingly fell in October compared to the previous month, for the first time in two and a half years.

However, according to a survey, economists from the Ifo Institute warned that many companies have not yet fully passed on their own higher prices to customers;

from this side there is a threat of further price pressure for consumers.

Bread price increases by more than 20 percent

More detailed information on which goods and services have become cheaper or more expensive can be found in the published figures from North Rhine-Westphalia, which often come relatively close to the national figures.

The development of energy prices is particularly striking there.

A high increase of 43.5 percent was recorded here compared to the same month last year.

However, compared to the previous month of October, prices in November were lower, with a drop of 2.7 percent.

Accordingly, the price increase compared to the same month last year was no longer as strong as in October.

This development of somewhat cheaper energy was particularly noticeable in the case of heating oil.

Here, prices in November fell by 9.8 percent compared to October.

Compared to the previous month, diesel prices fell by 7.8 percent, petrol by 4.4 percent - for fuel a total of 5.3 percent.

A remarkable change;

nonetheless, all of these prices are still significantly higher than a year ago.

Food prices, on the other hand, continued to rise on average.

Compared to the previous month, the price increase was 0.9 percent, compared to the same month last year it was 21 percent.

Fruit and vegetables were slightly cheaper in November than in October, while dairy products and eggs were even more expensive.

Compared to the same month last year, there were particularly drastic price increases for edible oils and fats at plus 41.9 percent, for dairy products and eggs at plus 34.8 percent and for bread and cereal products at plus 22.4 percent.

The prices for services in NRW fell by 1.2 percent compared to the previous month over the year.

That's remarkable, even if it still represented an increase (albeit declining) compared to the same month last year.

Compared to the previous month, there was a sharp seasonal decline in the prices for package tours, where there was a minus of 25.3 percent.

Lagarde sees inflation not peaking

The European Central Bank is discussing how much the central bank should raise interest rates in December.

ECB President Christine Lagarde had so far left no doubt that there should be another interest rate hike.

However, she had always emphasized that further action would be decided from meeting to meeting based on the data situation.

The next meeting of the Governing Council is on December 15th.

In a recent survey, the majority of economists expected interest rates to rise by 0.5 percentage points.

Commerzbank, which had long expected interest rates to rise by 0.75 percentage points, revised its interest rate forecast downwards this week.

Addressing the European Parliament's Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee on Monday, the ECB President stressed that she would not yet say that inflation in the euro area had already peaked.

She also warned that markets should be cautious about the fall in gas prices.

The European statistical office Eurostat intends to publish the first estimate of inflation in the euro area for November on Wednesday.

In October, euro inflation was 10.6 percent.