According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, on November 25, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 33.23 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.7% from the previous day.
Compared with 34 yuan/kg last Friday (November 18), it was down 2.3%.
This week's average price was 33.42 yuan/kg, down 0.4% compared with last week's average price of 33.55 yuan/kg.
Domestic hog prices continued to drop this week, and the drop was relatively large.
According to the China Pig Network, on November 25, the price of live pigs (external three yuan) was 23.36 yuan/kg, a decrease of 7.9% compared with 25.35 yuan/kg last Friday (November 18).
From the perspective of the week, the average price of live pigs this week was 24.3 yuan/kg, a decrease of 4.3% compared with the average price of 25.4 yuan/kg last week.
According to the monitoring of Zhuo Chuang Information, in terms of supply, the price of live pigs in large-scale farms has been reduced during the week, which has stimulated secondary fattening households and retail investors to actively sell. The average trading weight of live pigs across the country was 127.19 kg, a slight increase of 0.13% from the previous month.
On the demand side, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises rose slightly this week from the previous month.
The second fattening pigs replenished in the previous period have been released one after another, and the plans for slaughtering pigs in farms have increased towards the end of the month. The supply of live pigs is abundant, and the acquisition of slaughtering enterprises is smooth.
As the price of pork fell and the temperature dropped, terminal consumption gradually increased, supporting a slight increase in the operating rate.
The average weekly operating rate of key slaughtering enterprises was 24.13%, an increase of 0.69 percentage points from the previous month.
On November 24, the National Bureau of Statistics released the market price changes of important means of production in the circulation field in mid-November 2022.
In mid-November, the national price of live pigs (external three yuan) was 24.3 yuan/kg, compared with the first ten days of November, a decrease of 1.3 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 5.1%.
Regarding the market outlook for pig prices, the listed pig company Wen's (300498.SZ) stated that in the past two years, the new crown pneumonia epidemic has occurred from time to time, resulting in increased control in medium and high-risk cities and blocked sales channels.
In the high-risk areas of the epidemic, dine-in meals are mostly suspended. The catering industry and tourism industry have led to weak consumer demand in the meat market, which is significantly suppressed compared with normal years.
If the new crown pneumonia epidemic is effectively controlled and consumers regain their confidence in consumption, social demand for meat consumption will increase significantly, and retaliatory consumption may even occur.
If the marginal improvement in consumer demand is expected to boost pig prices in the market outlook.
Founder Mid-term Futures believes that the spot price of live pigs has fallen rapidly recently, and farmers in some areas are eager to cash in profits, which has led to a further drop in spot prices. Previously, the peak season of cured bacon in November, which the market expected, has been different; the time window left for farmers to cash in profits is gradually shortening, which may further form a negative feedback on pig prices.
Fundamentally, there is a high probability that the fattening at the end of the year will go through centralized slaughtering, especially after the blockade is lifted, slaughtering companies will resume work and production one after another, and the phased supply may increase significantly compared to October. In addition, feed prices will increase with soybean imports. There may be loosening in Hong Kong, and the cost of fattening is expected to fall from a high level. On the consumer side, the consumption loss caused by the epidemic in the past period of time has been irreparable. The current pig price is at a relatively high level in history, and marginal consumption is gradually suppressed. There is a lack of firm confidence in the overall consumption outlook.
Ruida Futures believes that from the perspective of the supply side, the pace of slaughter in large-scale farms has accelerated, and the sentiment of retail investors has also become stronger, and the second fattening pigs are gradually coming to the market. The supply of live pigs is expected to increase in the short term.
From the perspective of the demand side, the demand for pickled meat in the south started slowly, and the consumption demand was still weak. The epidemic also has a restraining effect on consumption. The increase in the supply of live pigs has not brought about a corresponding increase in the slaughtering volume. Whether it can keep up with the increase in supply is a key factor affecting the price of pigs.