War, lack of gas, inflation - was there something?
If everything is not deceptive, Germany is surprisingly well able to withstand the economic crisis cocktail, which has never existed before.
There are more employees than ever, companies are reporting billions in profits, gross domestic product (GDP) is growing faster than expected, and the economic indicators have picked up.
Bernd Freytag
Business correspondent Rhein-Neckar-Saar based in Mainz.
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Johannes Pennekamp
Responsible editor for business reporting.
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In the coming year, GDP will shrink, economists warn.
But what they calculate is a decimal recession.
Economic output will fall by 0.2 percent in the coming year before it recovers again, the Economic Experts of the German Council of Economic Experts predict.
And the Düsseldorf economist Jens Südekum summarizes: “We may not get the hoped-for corona recovery for the time being, but the current forecasts are not worrying.”
That's almost too good to be true, especially when you step back nine months.
After the Russian attack on Ukraine, it quickly became clear that the aggressor in the Kremlin would use gas as an economic weapon.
Germany, which got more than half of its natural gas imports from Russia, seemed extremely vulnerable from one day to the next.
In order not to provide additional financing for the Russian war machine, a gas embargo was also discussed in this country – to the dismay of the industry.
At the beginning of April, BASF CEO Martin Brudermüller went on the barricades: “Do we want to destroy our entire economy with our eyes wide open?” he asked in the FAS. He received support from both union and company-related economists.
They saw the worst crisis since World War II looming if Germany abruptly gave up Russian natural gas.
However, numerous other economists considered this to be grossly exaggerated and forecast noticeable but manageable losses in the event of an emergency, smaller than those during the corona pandemic.
The chancellor didn't want to hear about an embargo, Putin created facts.
He dried up the flow of gas through the most important pipeline, Nord Stream 1, in the summer, putting the German economy to the acid test.
Pleasing interim report
The interim balance is pleasing.
The gas storage facilities are filled to the brim and even in the unrealistic case that no more gas is supplied at all, Germany would be supplied for nine to ten weeks.
So far there has been no sign of mass layoffs or a wave of bankruptcies.
Even in the chemical industry, which requires by far the most imported gas, the situation is not dramatic.
On the contrary: Turnover seems to be increasing steadily, by almost 15 percent since the beginning of the year.
But it's too early to give the all-clear: the growth is due solely to higher prices, which is an expression of inflation, not increased competitiveness.
The chemical industry has increased its prices by almost a quarter in the current year, but production has fallen by more than 10 percent - as in many other energy-intensive companies.
For a long time, industrial customers have accepted higher prices, willy-nilly, because they cannot do without important primary products such as chemicals, plastics or foams.
And because they simply couldn't find another supplier: The chemical industry in Germany is currently benefiting from the fact that the value chains are disrupted internationally.
But that will change.
The industry association VCI recently reported that companies are finding it increasingly difficult to pass on the increased energy prices to their customers.
Managing Director Wolfgang Große Entrup warned: "We have a lot