Chinanews.com, November 16th (Chinanews Finance and Economics reporter Zuo Yukun) On the 16th, the National Bureau of Statistics released statistical data on changes in the sales prices of commercial housing in October 2022.
Sheng Guoqing, chief statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted that in October 2022, the number of cities in which the sales price of commercial housing in the 70 large and medium-sized cities has decreased will increase. The year-on-year decline in third-tier cities expanded slightly.
Data map: Sales staff introduce real estate to customers.
Housing prices in various cities fell month-on-month
"Quantity comes before price. Affected by the decline in overall sales data, the overall downward trend in housing prices in October is still continuing. The trend of housing prices also shows that the current market is at a stage bottom." Zhang Bo, director of 58 Anju Guest House Industry Research Institute Branch pointed out.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in October 2022, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, there were 58 and 62 cities where the sales prices of new commercial housing and second-hand housing fell month-on-month, respectively, an increase of 4 and 1 respectively from the previous month.
Specifically, the sales price of new commercial housing in first-tier cities fell by 0.1% month-on-month, which was the same as last month; the sales price of second-hand housing fell by 0.3% from the previous month’s flat.
The sales prices of new commercial housing and second-hand housing in second-tier cities decreased by 0.3% and 0.5% month-on-month respectively, and the rate of decline increased by 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points respectively from the previous month.
The sales prices of new commercial housing and second-hand housing in third-tier cities decreased by 0.4% and 0.5% month-on-month, respectively, the same as the previous month.
In October 2022, the sales price index of new commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities.
Screenshot from the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics
"In terms of new housing data, housing prices in Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou and Chengdu are relatively stable, while other cities are generally under pressure to cool down; new housing prices are weak, and second-hand housing will also be significantly affected. Only Chengdu, Nanchong, Yantai, Beijing and Xuzhou Second-hand housing prices are still rising." Yan Yuejin, Research Director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, pointed out.
Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Guangdong Provincial Housing Policy Research Center, analyzed that in October, corporate financing and residential mortgages were tightened; developers' capital chains continued to be tight, and new housing projects were discounted and promoted during the National Day; The expected impact on the future has collectively led to a wider decline in new home prices.
In terms of second-hand housing, Zhang Bo pointed out that the policy of refunding the replacement tax has led to a significant increase in the number of second-hand housing listings, which is also reflected in the month-on-month price changes in first- and second-tier cities.
"However, the effect of the policy released at the end of September in the market is not yet obvious, especially the marginal effect of the housing loan interest rate on the market is diminishing, and the gradual relaxation of the lower limit of the first-home commercial loan interest rate will not have an immediate effect on raising the market heat." Zhang Bo said that the demand for first-time home purchases is still relatively hesitant to enter the market, which has led to an inability to increase the market transaction volume simultaneously. The second-hand housing market in some cities is oversupplied, which will also form a certain downward pressure on housing prices.
In October 2022, the sales price index of second-hand housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities.
Screenshot from the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics
Policies at both ends of supply and demand
"The current housing prices have generally entered a stage of cooling and adjustment, which is related to the weakness of the national real estate transaction market and the lack of release of demand for housing purchases." Yan Yuejin said that in view of historical trends, similar adjustments will take a certain amount of time. The housing price index will rebound or turn positive.
Liu Lijie, a market analyst at the Shell Research Institute, believes that the improvement of future price trends requires the implementation of various supporting policies, and the real improvement in expectations and volume can slow down the downward pressure on housing prices.
Specifically, various policies such as financing support on the supply side and revitalization of pre-sale funds will help improve market expectations and prevent the further spread of downside risks; the bottoming of transaction volume in the short term still needs to be further implemented and refined by demand-side support policies .
Zhang Bo also said that judging from the policies in October and November, the intensity has been significantly improved, and the 16 financial regulations jointly issued by the two departments will have a very direct impact on the market outlook.
Coupled with the "second arrow" (continuing to promote and expand private enterprise bond financing support tools) simultaneously, with the help of real estate development loans, trust loans, and various financing channels for bond financing, the subsequent project delivery and financial pressure of real estate companies will be effectively relieved.
"If the funding side improves, the market's expectations for developers will improve, and the expectations of developers' price cuts and discounts will slow down, and the decline in housing price index will improve." Li Yujia said that the demand side will reduce mortgage interest rates, and hot cities will start "recognition". The identification standard of the first set of housing without subscribing to the loan will also benefit developers from internal sources of financing, improve hematopoietic function, and benefit price stability.
"In short, both supply and demand sides fully exert their strength and support each other, and finally the price can be stabilized." Li Yujia said.
(Finish)