On the 15th, the Cabinet Office will announce GDP = gross domestic product from July to September this year.

Based on the view that personal consumption will be sluggish due to the spread of the new coronavirus infection, private sector forecasts predict that the average real growth rate will slow down to the low 1% range on an annualized basis.

The average forecast of 35 private economists compiled by the Japan Center for Economic Research shows that the real growth rate compared to the previous three months is an annualized increase of 1.21%.



Even if it actually turns positive, there is a growing view that the growth rate will slow down.



Of these,


the average forecast for ``Personal consumption'' increased by 0.23% compared to the previous three months.


Although eating out and lodging have recovered due to the absence of restrictions on movement due to the new coronavirus, overall consumption is expected to be sluggish due to the spread of infection and rising prices.



In addition,


▽ "Corporate capital investment" is expected to increase by 1.68% on average, assuming that investment in software and machinery equipment, which has been postponed until now, will increase as economic activity recovers from the corona disaster. increase.



Furthermore,


▽ “Exports” are expected to recover, centering on automobiles, as the supply shortage of parts has eased, and is expected to increase by 1.68% on average.



As prices rise and the yen depreciates, household finances become increasingly difficult, and the focus of attention in this preliminary GDP report is how strong personal consumption can be seen.

The United States, China, and the Eurozone both have positive growth rates.

The growth rate of GDP = Gross Domestic Product from July to September in the United States, China, and the Eurozone, which have already been announced, are all positive.

[United States]


The GDP of the United States from July to September, which was announced on the 27th of last month, was a yearly increase of 2.6% in real terms compared to the previous three months.

The economy grew for the first time in three quarters, supported by growth in exports and government spending, but personal consumption, which accounts for a large portion of GDP, slowed as record inflation continued.



[China]


China's GDP during the same period was an annual increase of 16.5% compared to the previous three months, according to a Cabinet Office estimate.

Due to the impact of severe restrictions on going out in Shanghai, GDP fell in the previous three months, from April to June. Lacking strength.



[Eurozone]


The real GDP growth rate from July to September in 19 eurozone countries, including Germany and France, increased by 0.7% compared to the previous three months.

Although it has been positive for the sixth consecutive quarter, the pace of growth has slowed as record inflation, including soaring energy prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, has put pressure on consumer spending and business activity.