Our reporter Jia Li
Recently, the mobile phone giants have successively reported the news of cutting orders.
According to media reports, Apple plans to reduce the production of new iPhones by at least 3 million units, and the annual mobile phone production target is lowered to 87 million units; Samsung Electronics plans to produce about 290 million smartphones in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 13%.
On November 10, a number of heads of domestic mobile phone manufacturers who were interviewed by reporters from "Securities Daily" said that under the sluggish market demand, high inventory levels are a common problem faced by the industry. This year, companies have been adjusting shipments according to market conditions. The target and budget are dynamically adjusted. It is expected that the shipment volume will increase month-on-month due to the promotion season in November this year, but the order reduction in the fourth quarter will continue, with a year-on-year decrease or more than 10%, and the overall shrinkage for the whole year is about 20%. Be relatively cautious next year.
"In the past month, the inventory of mobile phone manufacturers has decreased, but this is a short-term phenomenon. At present, the impact of mobile phone manufacturers' cutting orders continues to pass through the supply chain, and some mobile phone module factories have stopped work." A mobile phone supply chain person tell reporters.
Mobile phone manufacturers continue to reduce orders
Tianfeng International analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said that Foxconn, an Apple supply chain company, has reduced production capacity two months ahead of schedule, which is expected to account for 10% of the total production capacity for the year.
Given that the current sales are far below expectations, Apple is now asking Pegatron and Luxshare Precision once again to reduce the production capacity of the iPhone 14/Plus and produce the Pro series instead.
According to media reports, Samsung Electronics also plans to produce about 290 million smartphones in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 13%.
In this regard, Apple China insiders told the "Securities Daily" reporter that the market is complex and changeable this year, and there has been an adjustment plan for shipments.
The relevant person in charge of Samsung China said, "The company did adjust its orders in the first three quarters of this year, and the effect of reducing inventory has gradually emerged since the fourth quarter."
Although the demand in the mid-to-high-end mobile phone market has been on the rise in recent years, in the context of the global decline in consumer electronics demand, mobile phone giants such as Apple and Samsung, which originally dominated this market, have not been spared. It continued to work, and the overall profit and market sales were unable to maintain a high level.
Since the beginning of this year, domestic mobile phone manufacturers have also continued to reduce orders.
According to people familiar with the matter, both vivo and OPPO reduced their orders in the second and third quarters by about 20%, and Xiaomi also lowered its full-year target from 200 million units to 160 million-180 million units.
"Due to the continuous reduction in demand, the price of mobile phones dropped significantly in the second and third quarters of this year. In the fourth quarter, the stocking volume and order volume of mobile phone manufacturers decreased by more than 10% year-on-year, and the annual contraction rate was about 20%." A domestic The person in charge of the mobile phone manufacturer said.
"This year, the mobile phone market has shown a trend of slow peak season. The inventory of mobile phone manufacturers is at a high level, and the phenomenon of order cutting and destocking will continue throughout the year. It is expected that the overall order volume will decrease by about 20%. However, the market is also brewing new phones. At present, domestic mobile phone manufacturers are extending to the smart hardware industry chain, and are actively striving to expand overseas in 2023." Li Huaibin, an analyst at consulting firm Navus, told the "Securities Daily" reporter.
Supply chain companies are busy crossing borders
At present, high inventory makes it difficult to achieve rapid "cooling down", which is the biggest problem for mobile phone manufacturers.
Judging from the financial reports of listed mobile phone companies, as of the first half of 2022, Transsion Holdings’ inventory reached 9.598 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.64%; Xiaomi Group’s inventory was 60.1 billion yuan, of which the finished product inventory was 32.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.7% %; Coolpad Group's inventory increased from HK$71.226 million in the same period last year to HK$97.32 million.
Xiang Ligang, a high-level consultant on high-quality development of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said in an interview with a reporter from Securities Daily, "High inventory is an important problem faced by mobile phone companies. Most manufacturers blame it on supply chain problems, but in essence it is the ebb of market demand. Under the premise that the scale of operating income is flat or reduced year-on-year, if the enterprise cannot effectively implement inventory management, it will lead to a backlog of raw materials, a sharp drop in commodity prices, and a sharp rise in inventory indicators, which will lead to a risk of inventory depreciation."
"The inventory of mobile phone manufacturers is still high, which is also related to the overall innovation of new phones is not as good as expected. In the fourth quarter, manufacturers continue to destock under the new round of promotions such as 'Double 11', and start new phone stocking early next year. We expect that the high inventory in the mobile phone market will initially ease in the first quarter of 2023, the market demand will rebound slightly in the second quarter, and the domestic channel inventory will be close to the normal level." Li Xuan, a senior analyst in the technology industry of Haitong Securities, told reporters.
It is worth noting that with the wave of mobile phone manufacturers cutting orders, the industry chain segments such as mobile phone display drivers, panels, chips and other electronic components are facing high inventory and falling prices. The performance of related companies are affected.
According to a report from Sigmaintell, in the fourth quarter of 2022, the price of display driver chips will fall to the level in early 2021.
Chip giant MediaTek cut orders by 20%; TSMC closed some EUV lithography machines to reduce production; SK Hynix and Micron are saving capital expenditures in response to inventory problems.
However, in the mobile phone industry chain, the layout of listed companies and the actions of cross-border emerging fields are gradually emerging.
Sunny Optical Technology recently announced that the shipment of mobile phone lens modules in October this year was 100.314 million, a year-on-year decrease of 12.8%, but vehicle lens shipments increased by 50.5% year-on-year, mainly due to changes in market demand; Jingyan Technology According to the outside world, the current folding screen mobile phone hinge project has obtained mass production orders; Visionox's shipments in the field of mobile phone OLED panels in the third quarter of this year were 10 million, with a market share of 7.3%. A number of brand customers maintain close supply relationships.
Liang Zhenpeng, a senior industrial economic observer and chief consultant of Zhifan Coast marketing planning agency, said, "At present, the whole machine, chip, and panel companies are reducing production capacity, which is one of the ways to survive the crisis in the cold winter of the industry. At the same time, strengthen inventory management. , improve the market's ability to resist risks, and seize the emerging industries such as folding screens and automotive intelligence to achieve differentiated product layout, cross-border is becoming a new trend in the mobile phone industry." (Securities Daily)