China News Service, November 9th (Xie Yiguan, China-News Financial Reporter) On November 9th, the National Bureau of Statistics will announce the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October. , the year-on-year increase in CPI in October may have declined.
Year-on-year CPI growth in October may fall
Under the influence of rising food prices such as pork, vegetables and fresh fruits, in September, the CPI rose by 2.8% year-on-year, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month.
CPI rise and fall chart.
Figure from the National Bureau of Statistics
How will the CPI increase in October?
According to the statistics of Flush iFinD, the average forecast of 17 institutions for the year-on-year increase of CPI in October is 2.38%.
If the above-mentioned average forecasts are fulfilled, the year-on-year increase in CPI in October will decline somewhat.
Chi Guangsheng, an analyst at Essence Securities, believes that in the CPI calculation, pork prices increased in October, while oil prices and egg prices rebounded slightly month-on-month, which constituted a positive pull on the CPI month-on-month; vegetable and fresh fruit prices both weakened, which contributed to the CPI month-on-month. constitutes a negative pull.
On the whole, the year-on-year increase in CPI in October may fall to around 2.4% from the previous value of 2.8%.
"Since October, the prices of vegetables and fruits have fallen, and the price of pork has risen from the previous month. Considering the slightly higher base in the same period last year, we expect the CPI in October to fall to 2.2% year-on-year or down." Zhongtai Securities analyst Chen Chen Xing said.
Data map: Haikou citizens shopping at the farmers market.
Photo by Zhang Yuehe
What is the trend of CPI in the later period?
Pork prices are an important factor affecting CPI fluctuations. According to the monitoring of 500 counties nationwide by the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the national average price of live pigs was 26.87 yuan/kg in the first week of November, down from the previous week. 2.9%, up 67.1% year-on-year; the national average price of pork was 41.60 yuan/kg, the same as the previous week, up 60.5% year-on-year.
Meng Weixiao, an analyst at Zheshang Securities, believes that in November, the industry will usher in the first climax of the second fattening sell-off, and the spot price of live pigs may drop significantly.
After December, the consumption demand for traditional pork such as cured meat and sausage has become increasingly strong. Historical data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs shows that the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises will increase significantly in December, and pig prices are expected to start rising again.
"Although food prices have risen at a relatively high rate due to the rising price of the pig cycle, non-food prices, especially the core CPI, have remained low year-on-year, which shows that the current domestic price level is generally stable." Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Dongfang Jincheng express.
Wang Qing believes that September is likely to be the highest point of year-on-year CPI growth this year, and the price level in the fourth quarter will remain below the control target of around 3.0%.
(Finish)