When do share prices rise permanently?

That's a question investors and investors would give a kingdom for.

The problem: You can never answer them seriously.

This is also the case this time: Prices have been rising since the end of September, from less than 12,000 points it was already 13,300 points on Friday afternoon.

This is a small but fine rally.

But is the recovery permanent?

Analysts disagree on that.

Many also assume a bear market rally: that's what it's called when there's an upward move during a broader downtrend.

Franz Nestler

Editor in Business.

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In the technical analysis, Wieland Staud spoke of a good signal for the Dax: it was now 1,500 points away from its bear market low of 11,863.

Several signals give an indication of the resilience of the market: Accordingly, recoveries could now last longer and take on greater proportions.

The Dax could therefore be stable into the coming year and even gain a few points - albeit during a bear market rally, as Staud admits.

Other technical analysts are worried about the resistance zone at 13,400 or 13,500 points, which recently could not be exceeded permanently, so that price losses could soon threaten again.

Fundamentally, the prospects for equities have also clouded over.

Producer prices rose again by more than 40 percent in September, so inflation will remain at a high level for the time being.

Interest rates are also likely to rise further: in the middle of the week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had destroyed hopes of a turnaround in interest rate policy - it was "very premature" to think about pausing interest rate hikes.

An interest rate of 5 percent is now being priced in for the coming year.

The labor market report for October in the United States did not give a clear answer to the question of how realistic this is: 261,000 jobs were created, more than economists had expected, but the unemployment rate also rose to 3.7 percent, 3, 6 percent.

Ironically, economists are not happy about a low unemployment rate: because there are many vacancies, the pressure on wages remains high, leading to a wage-price spiral - and thus increasing inflation - the Fed would then have to take countermeasures even more aggressively .