Our reporter Wang Lixin
Judging from the sales data of "Golden Nine and Silver Ten", the current real estate market still needs to recover, and accordingly, the land market is also in a low temperature state.
At present, the investment willingness of real estate developers, the focus on cities and the spending plans for land acquisition have already changed their rhythm, and the players on the field have also changed quietly. two.
On November 2, Vanke issued a briefing report saying that since the sales briefing in September was disclosed, the company has added 5 new development projects and needs to pay 7.789 billion yuan in equity land prices.
The day before, according to the monitoring data of the China Index Research Institute, from January to October this year, the top 100 real estate companies acquired a total of 1,122.9 billion yuan in land, a year-on-year decrease of 50.2%, and the decline continued to narrow for five consecutive months.
"The land market as a whole is in a sluggish state, and there is no obvious recovery." Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of the Guangdong Provincial Urban Planning Institute, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that the overall capital chain of housing companies is tight, and debt default events occur from time to time. , financial institutions have weakened the financing support for some housing enterprises, and developers rely more on sales receipts to supplement cash flow, and these funds are mostly used for debt repayment or daily operations.
Under such a situation, housing companies that have short-term liquidity difficulties and will face pressure to repay debts due in the near future should reduce their investment or even suspend land acquisition as their primary strategy.
Top 10 real estate companies
The new value of goods accounts for 50% of the total value of goods
In October of this year, 7 cities gathered together for centralized land supply, and residential land in many cities was mainly sold at the reserve price, and the strategies of real estate companies to acquire land were further differentiated.
According to monitoring data from the third-party agency CRERUI, more than 90% of the top 50 real estate companies did not invest in October, and more than 30 companies have suspended investment since 2022.
Since the third quarter, China Merchants Shekou, China Resources Land, C&D Real Estate and other real estate companies with relatively strong land acquisitions also slowed down their investment pace in October. Only large-scale real estate companies such as Poly Development and Longfor Group have increased their investment, such as Longfor Group. The amount of newly acquired land in a single month was nearly 9 billion yuan, a new high for the year.
Another set of data shows that as of the end of October, the newly added value of the TOP10 housing companies accounted for 50% of the total newly added value of the top 100 housing companies.
At the same time, among the top 10 real estate companies in the sales list in the first ten months of this year, 6 are also in the top 10 in the newly added value list.
In addition, from the perspective of the top 10 real estate companies with new value, China Resources Land, Poly Development, China Overseas Properties, Binjiang Group, China Merchants Shekou, Vanke and Greentown China have all added more than 100 billion yuan in value.
Overall, the new value of goods has been concentrated in the top 20 real estate companies in sales for a long time, and the remaining 80 real estate companies accounted for only 25% of the new value of goods.
In Li Yujia's view, the current housing companies with the ability to acquire land mainly fall into the following categories: one is the stable housing companies such as central state-owned enterprises; It is part of high-quality private housing enterprises.
"Currently, the enterprises with the willingness and ability to acquire land are mainly state-owned enterprises, regional deep-cultivation enterprises, and some local small and medium-sized real estate enterprises." Liu Shui, research director of the Enterprise Division of the China Index Research Institute, told the "Securities Daily" reporter, Central SOEs and state-owned enterprises have the advantage of financing, and paying close attention to the bottom of the land market to appropriately supplement resources will help to seize the opportunity after the market picks up; regional deep-cultivation enterprises accurately acquire land in advantageous cities to expand their regional market competitiveness; some local small and medium-sized real estate enterprises seize the land During the window period, reserve land resources.
"These real estate companies against the market have certain characteristics in common, that is, they are mostly stable housing companies." Li Yujia said that from the perspective of financial performance, first, the leverage ratio is low and cash flow is relatively abundant; second, financial institutions and capital The market is more recognized for its credit status and solvency, and there is financing cash flow into the account; third, in the market pattern of many "hundred billions of housing companies" defaulting on debt, stable housing companies are more creditworthy for home buyers. Therefore, it has the right to speak in the sales market, and the return of sales cash flow is larger and faster.
The subway company takes a lot of land
Land auction market "new force"
In this year's soil auction market, subway companies have begun to emerge, which is a new phenomenon worthy of attention.
On September 28, Shenyang conducted the second centralized land supply. Among the 10 land parcels that were transacted this time, 8 were acquired by wholly-owned subsidiaries of Shenyang Metro Operation Co., Ltd., with a transaction value of about 4.3 billion yuan, accounting for the total The turnover ratio is close to 90%.
According to the monitoring of the Middle Finger Research Institute, from January to October 2022, Guangzhou Metro Group, Xiamen Rail Transit, Shenzhen Metro Group, Suzhou Rail Transit Group, Hangzhou Railway Group, Shenyang Metro Group, and Hefei Rail Transit Group ranked first in the amount of land acquisition. 100 enterprises, the total amount of land acquisition is about 57.2 billion yuan.
Among them, the Guangzhou Metro Group and Xiamen Rail Transit Group each exceeded 10 billion yuan in land acquisitions, and the Shenzhen Metro Group, Suzhou Rail Transit Group, and Hangzhou Railway Group each exceeded 5 billion yuan.
"Most of these cities belong to economically developed and densely populated areas, and have a high demand for urban internal transportation. Rail transit is in a period of rapid development, and the subway company has a large amount of tasks for development and construction." Liu Shui said that at the same time, subway development and construction capital needs The large amount of public transportation and the inclusive public transportation make the company rely on government subsidies. The main goal of its land acquisition is to feed back subway construction and operation through real estate development profits.
Of course, the subway company has certain financial advantages, and has rich experience in TOD (station-city integrated development) model development.
"Subway companies with independent development capabilities may choose to complete project development independently; while some subway companies with weak development capabilities may choose to cooperate with real estate companies. For example, Vanke's acquisition of Shanghai Shentong Metro Asset Management Co., Ltd. project company Shanghai Guangxin Invested 50% of the equity and developed the Shanghai Vanke Sky City project." Liu Shui said that in general, the current development model of the subway company is still asset-heavy development, and the essence of its business model has not changed significantly.
"In addition to the conventional business model, the construction of subway stations has a direct impact on the appreciation of the lot." Bi Ran, a senior investment consultant of East Hi-Tech, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that the subway company has a natural advantage in the construction progress of subway stations. The accuracy of the construction period in the bidding process is stronger than that of other real estate companies, which is conducive to attracting investment in the later stage.
Coupled with the operational advantages in the later period, the subway company is willing to make a layout at the current point in time.
In fact, it is not new for the subway company to deploy real estate business, but it is not unusual to become a frequent visitor to the land auction market, which is not unrelated to the current low land prices.
"In the past, companies also paid attention to land auctions, but they usually did not end up buying land because the price of land was too high. They were always afraid that the development cycle would be long, and the cyclical fluctuations in the property market would affect the return on investment during the period. However, this year, the company is more interested in land acquisition." A relevant person from a subway company revealed to the "Securities Daily" reporter that it is currently paying attention to some cities with more subway line planning, such as Chengdu.
So, what is the logic behind the subway company becoming one of the "new forces" in the land market?
Li Yujia said that, on the one hand, regional comprehensive development has gradually become the focus of land transfer; on the other hand, subways in hot cities have entered the stage of large-scale development, and subway construction and operation need to accumulate a lot of funds. Real estate business can provide blood transfusion for subway construction and operation, becoming a support The main source of funds for subway development.
Furthermore, the strength of the subway company is relatively strong. If the land around the subway is won at a low price, and the house is sold after the subway is opened, the premium rate will be relatively high.
(Securities Daily)