China News Service, Beijing, October 19 (Reporter Chen Su) According to the monitoring of the National Development and Reform Commission of China, the weekly average retail price of lean meat in 36 large and medium-sized cities in the week of October 10-14 rose by more than 40%, entering the first-level warning range for excessive increases determined by the "Improving the Government's Pork Reserve Adjustment Mechanism and Doing a Good Job in the Work Plan for Sustaining Supply and Stable Prices in the Pork Market".

　　According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China, as of 14:00 on October 18, the average price of pork in the national agricultural wholesale market was 34.97 yuan per kilogram (RMB, the same below), which was higher than that after the National Day (32.81 yuan per kilogram on October 8). It rose by nearly 7% and more than 20% from two months ago (28.73 yuan per kilogram on August 18).

The national ex-factory price of lean-type white strip pork rose from about 27 yuan per kilogram on August 15 this year to 37 yuan per kilogram on October 14.

　　A salesperson from a supermarket in Haidian District, Beijing told a reporter from China News Agency that the price of fresh pork knuckle on the 19th was 25 yuan per catty, which was less than 20 yuan a week ago. During the National Day holiday, the price was relatively stable, and the price rose significantly in the past week.

　　According to the monitoring of the Henan Provincial Development and Reform Commission, the average retail price of lean meat in the province has risen by more than 40% for two consecutive weeks.

In the past week, the price of pork in a supermarket in Yantai, Shandong has risen by more than three yuan per catty, and the price has reached a new high this year.

　　From the perspective of production, since late September, the price of live pigs has risen significantly.

According to the pig data center of China Pig Network, on October 19, the price of live pigs (external three yuan) was 28.17 yuan per kilogram, an increase of nearly 20% from September 15 (23.57 yuan per kilogram).

　　According to the breeding cost and sales price, the price of live pigs in China is relatively reasonable at around 20 yuan per kilogram, but the current price is close to 30 yuan, which is at a historically high level.

　　Since the beginning of this year, the price of pork in China has fluctuated significantly. After the Spring Festival, there is a low consumption season. The production capacity of live pigs is relatively high, and the price of pork continues to be low. In June and July, as the price of live pigs rebounded, the price of pork also rebounded. Since late September, Especially in the past week, pork prices have risen rapidly, hitting a new high for the year.

　　The Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday have passed, and without the holiday factor, why has the price of pork soared further recently?

　　An analysis by the Information Center of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs pointed out that before the National Day holiday, large-scale farms accelerated the progress of slaughtering pigs, resulting in a decrease in the source of pigs that could be slaughtered this week, resulting in a tightening of the effective supply of live pigs, supporting the price of live pigs and pork to rise to high levels.

After the National Day, most large-scale farms have recovered live pigs, and a few have gained weight. There is generally a strong bullish sentiment on the breeding side, and back-to-back farmers are generally bullish on the slaughter, and the second weight gain of live pigs is too high. , resulting in an overall tight supply of live pigs.

In addition, the production of sausages and cured sausages in some areas such as Sichuan has led to a slight increase in the demand for pork.

Supply and demand together support the continued rise in pork prices.

　　Market analysis believes that the price of live pigs has risen significantly recently. The main reason is that some farmers have irrational behaviors such as excessive pressure on the fence and reluctance to sell and secondary fattening, which reduces the market supply.

　　At present, the price of pigs and pork is already at a high level. How will the price of pork go in the later stage?

　　Li Guoxiang, a researcher at the Institute of Rural Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told a reporter from China News Agency that the current Chinese live pig market is in a state of sufficient supply and is in a state of balance between supply and demand, but under the influence of market behavior, there are some fluctuation risks.

Breeding subjects, especially large-scale breeding enterprises, should speed up their slaughtering efforts and increase production and supply. This is the fundamental strategy to stabilize pork prices.

At the same time, the competent government departments should further improve regulation and further regulate the sales behavior of large-scale aquaculture enterprises while guiding the production of breeding enterprises.

"If large companies take the lead in increasing their slaughtering efforts, retail farmers will follow suit. With a substantial increase in supply and government regulation, the market is expected to stabilize in the later stage, and even prices will drop and remain at a reasonable level."

　　The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs stated that the current situation of live pig production and supply in China continues to improve, and the number of reproductive sows is at a normal level. At the level of the same period last year, there are sufficient fat pigs to be listed in the later period, and the market supply is guaranteed.

The next step will be to strengthen situation analysis, research and judgment and information early warning, focus on key indicators such as breeding sows and live pigs, increase the frequency of information release, and effectively guide production.

　　The National Development and Reform Commission said that in order to ensure stable supply and stable prices in the live pig market, the country will release the sixth batch of central pork reserves this year, and instruct all localities to increase efforts to simultaneously release local government pork reserves.

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