The world economic outlook in 2023 is red?

(Finance and Economics) Is the world economic outlook turning red in 2023?

　　China News Agency, Beijing, October 8th (Reporter Li Xiaoyu) The global economic outlook is becoming more and more bleak due to the escalation of the Ukraine crisis.

A number of international organizations and institutions have recently shown a "red light" for the growth rate of the world economy next year.

　　International Monetary Fund (IMF) President Georgieva said a few days ago that the global economy is undergoing a "fundamental shift": from a "relatively predictable" world to a "more fragile" world.

She bluntly stated that there is still high uncertainty in the world economy after the Ukraine crisis and the epidemic, and warned that "there may be more economic shocks".

　　According to the IMF, the risk of a global recession is increasing, with countries accounting for about one-third of the global economy experiencing two consecutive quarters of economic downturns this year or next.

Even in countries with positive economic growth, people can "feel like a recession" due to higher prices and lower real incomes.

　　Currently, the IMF's forecast for global economic growth this year is 3.2%, and 2.9% next year.

Georgieva revealed that next week the IMF will again cut its economic growth forecast for next year.

　　The World Bank recently pointed out in a report that central banks have successively raised interest rates this year in response to high inflation, a degree of synchronization not seen in the past 50 years, and this trend is likely to continue into next year.

In this scenario, the world could head toward a global recession in 2023, with a series of financial crises in emerging market and developing economies that could cause lasting damage.

　　Global trade will also come under more pressure from the economic downturn.

Global trade may lose momentum in the second half of 2022 and growth will drop sharply in 2023 due to multiple shocks to the world economy, according to a new forecast from the World Trade Organization (WTO).

　　According to the forecast, the world economy will grow by 2.8% this year, and the volume of global trade in goods will increase by 3.5%.

In 2023, the growth rate of the world economy will drop to 2.3%, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous forecast. During the same period, the total global import and export volume of goods may only increase by 1%, which is much lower than the previous forecast of 3.4%.

　　The WTO believes that import demand will decrease as growth in the world's major economies slows.

High energy prices due to the Ukraine crisis will squeeze household spending in Europe and push up business production costs; tightening monetary policy in the United States will hit interest-rate-sensitive spending areas such as housing, cars and fixed investment.

At the same time, rising fuel, food and fertilizer import prices could pose food security risks and debt problems for developing countries.

　　In this global predicament, different countries in different regions are warm and cold.

　　Affected by the energy crisis, the European and American economies seem to suffer severe cold.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) forecasts that the EU will grow 3.1% this year and may slow sharply to 0.3% next year; the US economy will grow 1.5% this year and 0.5% next year.

　　In contrast, the economic situation in East Asia and the Pacific region is warmer.

Overall economic growth in the region will slow to 3.2 percent this year from 7.2 percent last year, but will accelerate to 4.6 percent next year, according to the World Bank report.

　　In the face of the economic chill, there are constant voices calling for countries to adopt responsible policies.

　　World Bank President Malpass said that in order to achieve the goals of low inflation, stable currency and fast growth, policymakers can shift the policy focus from reducing consumption to boosting production.

Policies should be introduced to increase investment, improve productivity, and optimize capital allocation, all three of which are critical for growth and poverty reduction.

　　The World Bank also called on advanced economy central banks to consider the cross-border spillover effects of monetary tightening, and policymakers to cooperate to ease global supply bottlenecks and support a rules-based international economic order to counteract protectionism and fragmentation that could further undermine trade networks. threat.

　　Georgieva also proposed that countries should formulate "responsible fiscal policies".

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