The blackout ugly word is going around.
A winter in which the power supply is not guaranteed?
Police authorities are updating their emergency plans, villa owners are asking about emergency power generators, the Green Robert Habeck accepts nuclear power plants that will continue to operate, and Berlin's mayor calls it "justifiable" if you have to go without electricity in certain places for two or three hours after announcing it.
Patrick Bernau
Responsible editor for economy and "value" of the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sunday newspaper.
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Alexander Wulfers
Editor in the economy of the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sunday newspaper.
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The scenario is clear: in winter the sun doesn't shine as often, it gets dark early - solar power is no longer as plentiful as in summer.
Maybe the wind will stop too.
At the same time, electricity consumption is increasing because everyone who can is switching from gas to electricity - some even heat with a fan heater instead of a gas boiler.
And then France is also causing problems: In recent winters, Germany has often imported electricity from France because it was cheaper to replace the failed solar power with French nuclear power than with more expensive German power plants.
But many French power plants are out of action, and the neighboring country now needs a lot of electricity from us, even in winter.
It could happen that it is not enough.
And now there is also the fear of sabotage.
Small probability of failure
Are the prospects for the winter really that bad?
“The probability of a power outage is small.
But it's not entirely out of the question either," says Christoph Maurer.
He advises companies that are active in the electricity market.
And if that's the case, then it's about temporary phases in limited places.
Much depends on how things will continue in France.
France is not just about the fate of nuclear power plants.
The weather also plays a role, because France traditionally heats a lot with electricity.
The official vote comes from the four major power grid operators: Tennet, TransnetBW, Amprion and 50Hertz.
In September you published the results of a stress test that Economics Minister Habeck wanted to use as a basis for his nuclear decision.
They also emphasize that it is about how many of the hard coal and lignite power plants can be reactivated quickly.
Not enough electricity for everyone
Natural conditions also play a role: if there is prolonged low water in the Rhine and Neckar, this – in combination with bottlenecks in the rail network – restricts the availability of hard coal in the coal-fired power plants.
Power generation would continue to fall.
Even less coal would be available if, as is expected, Poland were to fail as an important supplying country.
The capacity of gas-fired power plants in southern Germany and Austria could also fall further due to the gas shortage.
In the scenarios in which all of these factors come together, "in a few hours load shortages will also occur in Germany," according to the network operator's report.
That means there is not enough electricity for everyone.
In the worst case, "controlled load shedding" can then occur, as grid operator Amprion explains.
This means that electricity would be cut off for some consumers in order to reduce demand.
This is done non-discriminatory, regionally and for a limited time.
However, Amprion also makes it clear that "even on the basis of the worst scenario we have examined, a blackout", i.e. an uncontrolled, widespread collapse of the network, is not to be expected.
What exactly “regional and limited in time” means in this case, the network operators remain vague.
The duration is “difficult to estimate in advance and depends on the specific situation,” says a Tennet spokeswoman.
However, experience in other European countries shows “that these measures are usually only necessary for a few hours”.
Where a shutdown occurs depends on the current situation in the power grid and is decided on site by the responsible grid operator.
According to the network operators, an important step towards avoiding such extreme situations would be the extended operation of the nuclear power plants, which has just been decided.
Blackout as a result of an act of sabotage
Worse would be a real "blackout", i.e. an uncontrolled power failure.
This is often not remedied after a few hours, because the power grid can then only be rebuilt slowly.
This danger does not loom if Germany simply lacks electricity.
In this case, the shutdowns can be controlled.
The blackout could only happen in the event of a successful act of sabotage.
The network operator TransnetBW points out, however, that those employees who work in highly sensitive areas always go through an official security check, in which the Ministry of Economics and the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution are also involved.
In addition, experts say that the German power grid is built to be quite stable and can also cope with some failures.
If there were longer power cuts, the Federal Agency for Technical Relief (THW) would be ready to support the affected regions with emergency generators.
They see themselves as well prepared there, but do not want this to be taken as a signal that power outages are likely.
"As a civil defense and disaster protection organization, our planning also takes into account scenarios that will very rarely - ideally never - occur," explains spokesman Michael Kretz.
Being prepared for power failures is part of the THW's range of activities anyway.
“There is always a risk of power failures, as the past few years have shown.
The THW is also prepared for possible failures this winter," says Kretz.