Treasury squeezes the middle class to collect 113,000 million in personal income tax after leaving it out of its tax reduction

María Jesús Montero wants to reach another record collection, a new historical figure of tax revenue in 2023 after which, with all certainty, it will be achieved this year.

And she wants to achieve it

, which is the social sphere that bears the Personal Income Tax (IRPF) to a greater extent, and after leaving a good part of these average incomes out of her tax reduction.

According to the data presented after yesterday's Council of Ministers, the Finance Minister expects to reach a total of 244,072 million in tax revenue, which represents an increase of 7%.

That percentage figure translates into 18,710 million euros more, and just under half will come only from personal income tax.

They will be, specifically, an additional 8,000 million for this figure, with which the income tax collection will slightly exceed

.

This remarkable figure will also be achieved in the midst of an economic downturn.

The Government itself estimates that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will advance by 2.1% next year, a figure that the OECD, however, lowers to 1.5%.

And, although the First Vice President and Minister of Economy, Nadia Calviño, defended the opposite, the Bank of Spain has also warned that the rate of job creation is also slowing down.

What will continue to hit hard, on the other hand, will be

, which has a very relevant weight in the increase that will be registered in personal income tax given the Treasury's repeated refusals to deflate the tax.

That, as the doctor in Economic Sciences from the Complutense University of Madrid and Professor of Applied Economics at the same university,

, explains , has a "very strong" impact in terms of collection.

He is already having it, in fact, in this year's withholdings, and he will have it next year for those same withholdings but also for the annual settlements.

«There is a section jump part, although it is the least, and there is another fundamental part of fiscal hindrance.

Overload, withholding in personal income tax above what should be.

As a taxpayer, you earn more than you should as

», He explains.

It is cold progressivity, widely discussed in the economic literature, and on which there is a very widespread position: stopping it does not mean lowering taxes, but

.

This is how it is defended, in addition to Sanz himself, by economists such as Carlos Monasterio and Ignacio Zubiri, who were chosen by Montero herself for the committee of experts that devised the white paper on which the minister wanted to support her tax reform.

But the Treasury's response has always been the same: no type of adjustment was going to take place, no matter how much the PP asked for it (or precisely because of it), and only the pressure of the communities governed by the PSOE itself forced the Government to announce the reduction in personal income tax for the lowest incomes that EL MUNDO advanced.

But, and Montero clearly underlined it, at no time was it a deflation.

In its argument, the Treasury always pointed out that adjusting the rate, even if it was in its lowest sections, also benefited the highest incomes.

And along the way,

.

Strong increase in VAT

,

which represents an increase of more than 4,700 million compared to the closing data expected for this year.

As in personal income tax, the good performance of this figure is also directly related to inflation.

The Tax Agency itself recognizes this, pointing it out clearly in its monthly collection reports.

“Revenue growth continued to be strong in August”, he points out in his latest document, “both due to the improvement in consumption and the continued increase in prices”.

Next year, with this economic moderation, inflation seems fundamental in the projected figures.

Companies, meanwhile, will reach 28,500 million, which represents a significant increase of 7% although still at levels far from the maximum reached during the real estate bubble.

Special Taxes will contribute 22,000 million (8% more than in the current year), and the rest of the tax revenues will be responsible for the final 12,700 million.

Conforms to The Trust Project criteria

Know more