Wen Xi, a reporter from China Fund Daily
The founders increased their holdings on the front foot, and the capital left the market on the back foot.
On October 3, according to data disclosed by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Citigroup, a well-known investment institution, reduced its holdings of Xiaopeng Motors (0868.HK) by 563,700 shares on September 27, and its shareholding ratio dropped to below 5%. There is no need for announcement.
This is not the first time that investment institutions have publicly reduced their holdings this year.
And just a week ago, Xiaopeng Motors just received 210 million yuan from its founder He Xiaopeng.
The sales volume of this new car-making force in September fell out of the first echelon. Since the beginning of this year, its market value has shrunk by more than 260 billion Hong Kong dollars, or 76%.
Among the new car-making forces "Wei Xiaoli", the share price of Xiaopeng Motors fell the most sharply.
Some people in the industry believe that with the development of traditional car companies, the competition in the industry is becoming more and more fierce, and the new car-making forces are currently in a more "painful" stage of squeezing the bubble.
Founder's increase in holdings is difficult to prevent the stock price from falling
According to data from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Citigroup reduced its holdings of Xiaopeng Motors by 563,700 shares on September 27, and its shareholding ratio was reduced from 5.01% to 4.97%. After that, it will not need to release data if it continues to reduce its holdings.
This is not the first time that investment institutions have publicly reduced their holdings this year.
As early as June 22, Xiaopeng Motors was reduced by JPMorgan Chase to 3,020,800 shares at an average price of HK$120.7484 per share, involving about HK$365 million.
After the reduction, the number of shares held by JPMorgan Chase was 64.7489 million shares, and the proportion decreased from 5.19% to 4.96%.
Since the beginning of this year, the stock prices of listed car companies have collectively declined, and the market value of new car manufacturers has also shrunk. Among them, Xiaopeng Motors has shrunk the most in market value.
As of October 3, the market value of Xiaopeng was HK$79.1 billion, down 76.97% from the peak value of HK$343.4 billion at the beginning of this year, and the market value had shrunk by more than HK$260 billion. On October 3, it was HK$108.2 billion).
In contrast, the market value of the other two new car-making forces has not changed so drastically.
Li Auto (2015.HK) has shrunk by only 26.47% in market value this year, while NIO (NIO.N) US stocks have fallen 50.19% this year (its Hong Kong stock market was listed on March 10 this year, so it is compared with US stocks).
This also makes Xiaopeng Motors founder and CEO He Xiaopeng unable to turn a blind eye.
On September 23, Xiaopeng Motors was notified by its controlling shareholder Simplicity Holding Limited that it had purchased a total of 2.2 million American depositary shares of the company in the open market at an average price of US$13.58 per share.
Simplicity Holding is wholly owned by the company's chairman, He Xiaopeng.
Based on this calculation, He Xiaopeng's increased holdings cost about 29.88 million US dollars (about 210 million yuan).
Boosted by this, Xiaopeng Motors Hong Kong stock market opened rapidly on the 26th, rising by more than 11% at one point.
However, the downward trend of Xiaopeng Motors did not stop. In the following 5 consecutive trading days, the stock price continued to fall.
Xiaopeng Motors' market-to-sales ratio is obviously too high
"Compared to traditional car companies, there is actually a certain bubble in the valuation of new car manufacturers. This year, the market has seen a full correction, and there is also a demand for cash from investment institutions," a senior analyst in the auto industry of a securities firm told reporters.
At the end of 2021, the market value of new car-making forces has reached its peak, but in contrast, operating income has not kept pace with the market value.
The reporter checked the data and found that by the end of 2021, Xiaopeng Motors' market-to-sales ratio (the ratio of market value to operating income) was 13.37, which is much higher than the industry average.
In comparison, Geely Auto was 1.7 and Great Wall Motor (2333.HK) was 1.56.
The ratio of ideal cars, which are also new carmakers, is 7.74, and Weilai is 9.45.
It is not difficult to see that even if the three new car manufacturers are compared horizontally, Xiaopeng Motors is the one that is obviously overvalued by the market.
And from the perspective of profitability, the change in net profit loss of Xiaopeng Motors in the first half of the year was also the largest among the three new forces, an increase of 122.21%.
In terms of operating costs, Xiaopeng Motors rose by 122%, almost in line with the loss of net profit.
It is not difficult to see that the sharp increase in raw material costs has significantly eroded Xiaopeng's profits.
"In the long run, the valuation of new car-making forces will return to the industry average, and the current stock price fall is also a process of squeezing the bubble after the market has become rational," said the above-mentioned brokerage analyst.
In addition, in his view, with the development of traditional car companies such as BYD, GAC, and Geely Automobile this year, the market space of new car manufacturers has been greatly squeezed, and the overall sales situation is also facing a test.
Industry obvious stage bottleneck
In the past September, the smell of gunpowder became stronger among the new car-making forces.
Wenjie M5EV, Ideal L8/L7, Xiaopeng G9, Leapmotor C01 and many other new models were released on the market, and Leapmotor became the fourth new power company to be listed.
In addition, Weilai ES7, Ideal L9, and Wenjie M7 all ushered in the first full delivery month in September.
In this month, Xiaopeng Motors became the worst hit.
Xiaopeng delivered 8,468 vehicles in September, down 18.7% and 11.6% from the previous month.
Xpeng Motors is not only at the bottom of the "Weixiaoli", but also the only brand that fell year-on-year.
In fact, not only the sales decline in September, but also Xiaopeng Motors has shown fatigue in August. It delivered 9,578 new cars in August, down 17% from the previous month. In the sales list of new domestic car companies, it was the No. 1 in the same period last year. 2 slipped to 5th.
Zheshang Securities also believes that Xpeng Motors also has the risk of mismatching with mainstream demand in terms of strategy.
The agency said that in the short term, Xiaopeng emphasized too much intelligence, but the current electrification change has not been completed, and the experience inflection point before L3 landed, users have low confidence and willingness to pay for autonomous driving, and intelligence may not be sufficient. Conditions affect user decisions, and there is a risk of mismatch with mainstream demand in the short term.
In the face of the increasingly competitive new energy vehicle track, Guosen Securities also believes that the recent changes in the sales rankings of new car manufacturers are mainly due to the fierce competition in the high-end new energy vehicle market, along with the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in first- and second-tier cities. It has been relatively high, and the industry is gradually showing staged bottlenecks.
"Under the constraints of limited resources, the competition in the new energy vehicle market is becoming increasingly fierce, and the operational efficiency and strategic decision-making of enterprises are becoming more and more important. The development of the industry has entered a new stage."
The agency believes that the current landing method and profit model of automobile intelligence (smart driving, intelligent cockpit) are not yet mature, and the technical principles of automobile electrification (battery, motor, electronic control) tend to be homogenous, and they want to make differentiated highlights. It requires high R&D efficiency, strong cost control and deep technology accumulation.
At the same time, the building of automobile brand power requires large marketing investment and efficient terminal channel laying.
(China Fund News)