Winter is coming… And Europe is worried about its gas reserves as Russian supply dries up considerably.

The old continent's gas saving measures will be "crucial" this winter to maintain stocks at sufficient levels, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned on Monday in its quarterly report.

The drying up of Russian gas, in response to the sanctions imposed on Moscow since the invasion of Ukraine, has caused prices to explode on world markets and led Europeans to obtain supplies from other sources, importing natural gas on a massive scale. liquefied gas (LNG), in particular American, and Norwegian gas.

Thanks to this diversification strategy, "gas stocks were almost 90% full at the end of September", indicated the IEA, based in Paris, while warning Europe of the consequences, starting this winter and next year, of a possible total cut off of Russian gas.

Stocks at “5% in the event of low supply”

In its report, the agency thus established winter projections for these stocks "in the event of a complete shutdown of Russian supplies from November 1" and depending on the supply of LNG, a resource which is now the object of a "global competition".

"Without a reduction in gas demand and if the Russian supply is completely cut off, the storages would be filled to less than 20% in February, assuming a high level of LNG supply" and "nearly 5% in the event low LNG supply," warns the IEA.

A melting of stocks at such levels “would increase the risk of supply disruption in the event of a late cold snap”, insists the OECD energy agency in its press release.

Demand must drop by 13%

To ward off this scenario, the IEA therefore believes that Europe will have to observe “crucial” savings measures to “maintain stocks at adequate levels until the end of the heating season”.

According to its projections, a reduction during the winter of European gas demand of the order of 9% compared to the average of the last five years, "would be necessary to maintain these stock levels above 25%" in cases of lower LNG inflows.

And this demand would have to drop by 13% compared to this five-year average “to maintain storage levels above 33%”, in the event of low LNG supplies.

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