[I think carbon reaches peak carbon neutrality]
The solemn commitment to the "dual carbon" goal is a concrete manifestation of China's practical actions to promote the building of a community with a shared future for mankind. Since the "dual carbon" goal was put forward, governments at all levels, enterprises, and industries have responded positively, and relevant policies, roadmaps, and development plans have been successively introduced and implemented.
As the world's largest developing country, energy consumer and carbon emitter, the "dual carbon" goal puts forward higher requirements for my country's high-quality energy development, especially in the current tight energy supply and demand, uncertainty in alternative energy, Russia and Ukraine Under the influence of many factors such as conflicts and geopolitical games, how to seek more resilient, inclusive and sustainable energy production and consumption methods on the premise of effectively guaranteeing national energy security is the key to achieving the "dual carbon" goal. .
1. The changing law of the proportion of coal production needs to be analyzed
To accurately recognize my country's energy strategic situation, we must objectively and comprehensively analyze the evolution law of the proportion of primary energy in consumption and production, and we must not neglect it.
Over the years, the proportion of coal in my country's primary energy consumption and production structure has not kept pace. The huge increase in renewable energy sources such as wind and photovoltaics is the result of large imports of oil and natural gas.
However, due to the complex and changeable international situation and geopolitics, as well as the increasing uncertainty in the international energy market, this energy supply model has brought certain hidden dangers and challenges to the national energy security - that is, coal consumption accounts for The lower ratio may threaten the national energy security.
Therefore, if we only emphasize the trend and law that the proportion of coal in the primary energy consumption structure is decreasing year by year, without analyzing the changing law of its proportion in production, it will be difficult to comprehensively and scientifically grasp the situation of my country's energy strategy.
2. "Cold" thinking is needed behind the "hot" of renewable energy
The power generation structure dominated by fossil energy is not unique to my country. Although most developed countries in the world have already achieved carbon peaks, their electricity production is still dominated by fossil energy.
The experience of various countries shows that the differences in energy resource endowments and technological advantages determine the differences in the paths of clean and low-carbon energy transformation in countries around the world.
In the process of building a wind-solar-based renewable energy power system, it is not only necessary to emphasize the scale of installed capacity, but also to verify and verify its actual power generation, reveal the mechanism of serious mismatch, and solve the problem of serious mismatch.
From the perspective of the whole life cycle, the renewable energy project itself is not absolutely clean, green and low-carbon friendly, and the economic, social and ecological environmental benefits generated by the renewable energy project should be comprehensively and comprehensively evaluated from the whole life cycle process.
3. Accurate and flexible allocation of energy consumption and production
Precise allocation of energy consumption and production in quality, time and space is an important measure to save energy and improve the efficiency of resource allocation.
Shallow geothermal energy and building (group) "heating-cooling-domestic hot water" triple supply configuration, as well as photovoltaic and building (group) lighting and other power supply configuration, are typical models of precise configuration of energy consumption and production in terms of quality.
In the spatial domain, Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia and other places have abundant wind and solar energy resources, which can be flexibly deployed in local coal-fired power generating units to adjust peaks and fill valleys to achieve continuous and stable wind and solar power generation. output.
The wind-solar hybrid power generation system, the “rich and dry” hydropower and the abundant natural gas resource allocation in the Sichuan-Chongqing region are the representatives of the flexible allocation of energy in the time domain.
4. Scientific positioning of the coal industry
Although the coal industry is no longer a "sunrise industry", it is by no means a "sunset industry" - this is the current scientific orientation for the development status and future of the coal industry.
Under the vision of the "dual carbon" goal, the key to how the coal industry can transform and upgrade and achieve high-quality development lies in whether the coal industry can carry out "self-revolution", that is, creating an upgraded version of the coal industry, promoting green, high-efficiency exploration and development of coal, and clean and low-cost coal. carbon use.
Before renewable energy becomes the main energy source in our country, the strategic position of coal as the main source of energy in our country should reach a certain consensus in the whole society in order to ensure the safety and stable supply of energy in our country. Chaos such as power outages may reappear, slowing down economic and social development and affecting the implementation of carbon reduction goals.
5. Build a "three-pronged" energy development strategy
In the future, my country should build a three-pronged energy development strategy of renewable energy-fossil energy-efficiency improvement and energy conservation, and realize the large-scale utilization of renewable energy, the low-carbon use of fossil energy, and the systematic implementation of efficiency improvement and energy conservation.
Taking energy efficiency improvement as an example, if my country's energy consumption per unit of GDP in 2020 is equal to the world average, energy consumption can be reduced by about 1.76 billion tons of standard coal, and CO2 emissions can be reduced by about 4.26 billion tons.
Therefore, if we can eliminate outdated production capacity, continuously adjust and optimize the industrial structure, improve energy utilization methods, and improve energy utilization efficiency, etc., my country can completely use the existing energy supply without increasing or slightly increasing the total energy supply. It can meet the energy demand for high-quality economic and social development in the future.
6. Establish a "dual-mode-driven" energy production and consumption system
According to the characteristics of my country's energy resource endowment and the forecast of future scientific and technological development level, the two basic models of "advanced coal power + CCUS (CCS)" and "wind and solar + regulation (energy storage, peak regulation, distributed flexible power grid)" will be the key to realizing the future of the country. The most important energy supply mode in the process of economic and social development and the "dual carbon" goal.
Specifically, before the carbon peak in 2030, taking "advanced coal power + CCUS (CCS)" as the main energy source and "wind-solar + regulation (energy storage, peak regulation, distributed flexible power grid)" as the auxiliary energy source should be my country's The main energy supply mode of China; between 2030 and 2050, energy supply will gradually transition to the coexistence and synergy mode of "wind and solar + regulation (energy storage, peak regulation, distributed flexible grid)" and "advanced coal power + CCUS (CCS)"; 2050 In the future, "wind and wind + regulation (energy storage, peak regulation, flexible grid distribution)" will become the main energy supply model in my country.
Under the vision of the "dual carbon" goal, in order to achieve my country's grand goal of building a modern socialist country in an all-round way by the middle of this century, we must accurately grasp and handle the relationship between carbon emission reduction and national energy security and economic and social development.
As an inevitable choice to curb global climate change and realize the transformation of my country's economic structure and industrial upgrading, the "dual-carbon" goal is in line with the fundamental interests of my country's development, but the "dual-carbon" goal is not achieved simply by reducing or adding a certain energy source.
If you throw away the energy rice bowl that you have held in your hands, and blindly talk about the path to achieve the "dual carbon" goal, it will bring hidden dangers to the national energy security.
Therefore, based on my country's current economic and social development reality, resource endowment characteristics, energy technology level, external environment, etc., scientifically judge and formulate a flexible "dual-carbon" path in line with national conditions, and continuously optimize the "large-scale utilization of renewable energy, fossil energy, etc." The three-legged relationship between low-carbon use and systematic implementation of efficiency improvement and energy saving, and rationally constructing two energy supply models of "advanced coal power + CCUS (CCS)" and "wind and solar + regulation (energy storage, peak regulation, distributed flexible grid)", Only by establishing a "three-pronged, dual-mode-driven" energy production and consumption system with my country's energy characteristics can ensure that my country's stable and orderly realization of safe carbon reduction and sustainable economic and social development go hand in hand.
(Author: Wu Qiang, academician of Chinese Academy of Engineering, professor and doctoral supervisor of China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing))