For the first time since October 2014: the euro exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange fell to 51 rubles

On Friday, September 30, trading on the Moscow Exchange is accompanied by a noticeable strengthening of the Russian currency.

At the beginning of the day, the dollar exchange rate fell by 6.8% and for the first time since July 1 reached 53.3 rubles.

At the same time, the euro exchange rate fell immediately by 8%, to 51 rubles, the lowest level since October 2014.

Significant support for the ruble is still provided by the imbalance of supply and demand in the Russian foreign exchange market, Alexander Potavin, an analyst at FG Finam, explained in an interview with RT.

“Now the exchange rate of the ruble against major currencies is mainly determined by the parameters of foreign trade - the ratio of exports and imports.

So far, this ratio is quite favorable for the national currency.

Sales of foreign exchange earnings from exporters remain, while purchases of cash by individuals have decreased over the past month, ”the specialist explained.

Along with this, Russian banks and companies continue to actively sell their existing dollars and euros, Potavin added.

According to him, business is afraid of the introduction of new sanctions by the West against the Russian financial market.

Against this background, the business seeks to get rid of "toxic assets" and transfers money into rubles, as well as the currencies of friendly countries.

• Gettyimages.ru

• © Bloomberg Creative Photos

In addition, the record appreciation of the ruble against the euro over the past eight years may be due to the general weakening of the European currency on the world market due to the deterioration in the economic prospects of the eurozone countries.

Sergey Suverov, an investment strategist at Arikapital Management Company, shared this opinion in a conversation with RT.

“In general, the euro is under pressure from the difficult economic situation in Europe.

Now the energy crisis is aggravating in the region.

The threat of a recession in the eurozone is growing very much, and shutdowns of entire industries due to a shortage of gas and other energy sources are quite real, ”Suverov explained.

Note that for several weeks now, the European currency has been cheaper than the American one in international trading.

The last time a similar situation could be observed back in 2002.

On Friday, the euro exchange rate against the dollar fell by 0.5% to $0.9753 per €1, according to data from the TradingView platform.

According to analysts, the market reacted negatively to the inflation data published on September 30 in the euro area.

According to preliminary estimates by Eurostat, in September 2022, the growth rate of consumer prices for goods and services on average in the euro area reached 10% in annual terms - the highest level in the entire history of observations.

Moreover, in a number of European countries, annual inflation has already exceeded 11-12%, in the Netherlands it has reached 17.1%, and in the Baltic countries it has exceeded 22%.

One of the main reasons for the record acceleration of inflation in Europe was the rush of energy prices.

Thus, over the past year, the cost of energy in the countries of the region has increased by an average of almost 41%.

With prices skyrocketing in September, business activity in the euro area's manufacturing and services sectors fell to levels of early 2021, when the region was experiencing the effects of the coronavirus pandemic.

This is evidenced by the materials of the analytical agency S&P Global.

Meanwhile, specialists from the consulting company Oxford Economics believe that the eurozone has already entered a recession phase.

At the same time, according to experts, the deepest recession awaits Germany - the largest economy in the region.

“The numbers indicate that the eurozone is already in recession, and high inflation and a reduction in industrial production could lead to an even sharper economic downturn in winter ... Of the major European economies, Germany will suffer the most serious blow to its (economic. -

) activity due to the scale of its industrial sector and the intensity of gas consumption in its work,” the authors of the report note.

Flow Voltage

According to Sergey Suverov, the situation around the Nord Stream gas pipeline system is now exerting additional pressure on the euro.

At the beginning of the week, a large gas leak was discovered on the highways, which, as expected, could have occurred as a result of several underwater explosions.

A number of European politicians and experts call the incident a deliberate sabotage.

In Russia, meanwhile, they consider the incident an international terrorist attack, in which the countries of the West themselves may be involved.

“We already have some materials that point to the Western footprint in the organization and implementation of this terrorist act... The West is doing everything to hide the true perpetrators and organizers of this international terrorist act... The Prosecutor General’s Office has already opened a criminal case, an investigation is underway” Sergei Naryshkin, director of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, said on Friday.

• Pipes at the onshore section of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in Lubmin, Germany

• Legion Media

• © Fotoagentur Nordlicht

Although the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline was never put into operation, and Nord Stream 1 did not work in recent weeks, many experts expected that with a critical aggravation of the energy crisis in the EU, both pipelines could still be opened.

The lack of such an opportunity now carries even more serious risks for Europe, Artyom Deev, head of the analytical department at AMarkets, said in a conversation with RT.

“Despite political statements from the European Commission or Berlin, the Europeans still had these gas pipelines.

It was only necessary to agree with Russia on how to start pumping gas in the required volumes.

But now it is technically impossible, and the situation for Europe, especially Germany as the locomotive of the entire EU economy, is becoming threatening,” Deev said.

Under these conditions, experts do not exclude that in the foreseeable future the European currency will continue to fall in price on the world market.

As BitRiver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov suggested in a RT commentary, in October the euro exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange will tend to the level of 50 rubles.

At the same time, the dollar exchange rate can remain relatively stable and will remain close to current values ​​for now, but by the end of the year it can rise to 65-70 rubles, Alexander Potavin is sure.