China's economy continues to recover and develop in September, PMI rises to expansion range

　　China News Service, September 30. On the 30th, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Purchasing Managers Index.

In this regard, Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, made an interpretation.

　　In September, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index was 50.1%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and rose above the threshold; the non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index were 50.6% and 50.9% respectively, both for 4 consecutive years. month above the critical point.

The three major indexes are all in the expansion range this month, and my country's economy continues to recover and develop.

Manufacturing PMI rises to expansionary territory

　　In September, as a package of policies to stabilize the economy continued to work, and the impact of high-temperature weather subsided, the manufacturing sector recovered somewhat, and the PMI returned to the expansion range.

　　(1) Production has expanded.

In September, the manufacturing industry entered the traditional peak season, and the production index rose to 51.5%, 1.7 percentage points higher than the previous month, and returned to above the critical point, and the production activities of manufacturing enterprises accelerated.

From the perspective of the industry, the production indexes of food and beverage refined tea, medicine, non-metallic mineral products, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, general equipment manufacturing and other industries all rose to 54.0% or above, and the production capacity of enterprises was released rapidly.

At the same time, in order to meet production needs, enterprises have increased the procurement of raw materials, the purchase volume index has risen to 50.2%, and the manufacturing market activity has increased.

　　(2) The prosperity level of large, medium and small enterprises has rebounded.

The PMI of large enterprises was 51.1%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, and was in the expansion range for two consecutive months. Among them, the production index and the new order index were 53.7% and 51.0% respectively, and the production and demand increased simultaneously.

The PMI of medium-sized enterprises was 49.7%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the prosperity level continued to improve; the PMI of small enterprises was 48.3%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and the prosperity level turned from decline to increase.

　　(3) Business expectations have improved.

The production and operation activity expectation index was 53.4%, 1.1 percentage points higher than the previous month, and the confidence of manufacturing enterprises has rebounded.

From the perspective of the industry, the production and operation activity expectations index of agricultural and sideline food processing, food and beverage refined tea, medicine, automobile, railway, ship, aerospace equipment manufacturing and other industries is in a relatively high boom range of more than 58.0%. The outlook is more optimistic.

　　Although the prosperity level of the manufacturing industry has rebounded this month, from the perspective of market demand, the new orders index is 49.8%, which continues to be in the contraction range, indicating that the manufacturing market demand is still sluggish.

Non-manufacturing business activity index keeps expanding

　　In September, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.6 percent, a decrease of 2.0 percentage points from the previous month, still higher than the threshold, and the overall expansion of the non-manufacturing industry slowed down.

　　(1) The prosperity level of the service industry declined.

In September, affected by the epidemic and other factors, the business activity index of the service industry dropped to 48.9%, a decrease of 3.0 percentage points from the previous month and below the threshold, and the market activity of the service industry has weakened.

From the perspective of the industry, the business activity index of producer services continues to be in the expansion range. Among them, the business activity index of postal service, telecommunications, radio and television, satellite transmission services, monetary and financial services and other industries are all higher than 60.0%, and the total business volume has grown rapidly; life The business activity index of the sex service industry fell to the contraction range, which is the main factor behind the decline of the service industry's prosperity this month. Among them, the business activity index of contact-type and agglomerated service industries such as retail, air transportation, accommodation, catering, and residential services were all lower than 45.0%. The fall is larger.

From the perspective of market expectations, the business activity expectation index was 56.1%, which was 1.5 percentage points lower than the previous month, and was still in a relatively high economic range. All are located in the high prosperity range of more than 60.0%, and enterprises maintain confidence in the recovery and development of the industry.

　　(2) The construction industry rose to a high level of prosperity.

The business activity index of the construction industry was 60.2%, 3.7 percentage points higher than the previous month, and rose to a high level of prosperity.

Among them, the business activity index of civil engineering and construction industry was 61.0%, the highest in the past four months, indicating that the recent policy measures such as revitalizing special bonds and policy financial instruments have further promoted the implementation of infrastructure construction projects, and the expansion of production activities in the construction industry has accelerated. .

Composite PMI output index continues to expand

　　In September, the composite PMI output index was 50.9%, 0.8 percentage points lower than the previous month, indicating that the production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises continued to expand in general, but the pace of expansion slowed down.

The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index, which make up the composite PMI output index, were 51.5% and 50.6%, respectively.

(Zhongxin Finance)