Roll to new heights? "Brother of the brokerage" finished dismantling the car and dismantling the radar

　　Original title: Roll out to new heights?

"Brother of the brokerage" finished dismantling the car and dismantling the radar. The 50-page report looked at the prospects of intelligent driving and opened five investment opportunities.

　　Now analysts have written research reports to a new height. Some time ago, CITIC Securities just dismantled a Tesla, and recently dismantled 5 lidars, and concluded that the long-term global market space for the lidar market can reach About 100 billion US dollars, so the market has given high valuations to industry-related companies.

　　In the field of consumer electronics, dismantling mobile phones and computers to study product performance is what some hard-core digital bloggers often do.

　　However, the upgrading of consumer electronics is getting faster and faster, and it seems that it is difficult for the dismantling to meet the needs of the audience. A-share investors have always been interested in in-depth research reports, and the dismantled research reports can generally allow investors to understand the product structure and product structure more clearly. performance, and popularize some technology-related knowledge for investors.

Dismantling has also become one of the means for major brokerages to attract investors.

CITIC Securities

　　Recently, the research report "Intelligent Driving Investment Opportunities from the Dismantling of Five LiDARs" released by CITIC Securities has aroused heated discussions in the market. This 50-page research report describes in detail the prospects of the LiDAR industry.

　　The research report pointed out that the industry has a long-term market space of hundreds of billions of dollars, so the market has given high valuations to industry-related companies.

2022 is the first year for the scale of LiDAR to be launched. In 2022, there are currently 26 new designated locations, exceeding the total from 2018 to 2021, and the industry investment window period has arrived.

　　After the detailed dismantling, CITIC Securities believes that the most valuable investment in the lidar industry chain is the complete machine, which will have a higher concentration and a better gross profit margin.

In the supply chain, it is recommended to focus on the transmitter chip, the receiver chip and the collimation device.

　　In terms of LiDAR machines, although there are currently many manufacturers entering the market, we believe that the industry has a high threshold and will eventually have a higher concentration and gross profit margin. The CR5 concentration is expected to exceed 85%, and the gross profit margin is expected to exceed 35%.

The threshold is reflected in three aspects:

　　1) Barriers to vehicle regulations: LiDAR is a "mechanical + optical + electronic" product, with high difficulty in vehicle regulations and a long boarding cycle.

　　2) Algorithm barriers: Due to the non-standard design of lidar optical paths, the algorithm and the whole machine must be decoupled, rather than software and hardware decoupling like the camera module, so that there is a higher gross profit margin.

　　3) Chip barriers: In order to reduce costs and improve performance, head lidar companies are integrating TIA, ADC, FPGA, and DSP into one SOC to further improve the industry threshold through chipization.

　　In terms of the lidar industry chain, CITIC Securities believes that investment opportunities are mainly reflected in five aspects:

　　1) Transmitter chip: 905nm EEL chip Osram's dominance is difficult to change, but after VCSEL fills the power short board through the multi-junction process, due to its low cost and low temperature drift characteristics, it will gradually realize the replacement of EEL, domestic chips Changguang Huaxin, Zonghui Xinguang ushered in development opportunities.

　　2) Receiver: As the 905nm route needs to increase the detection distance, it is expected that SiPM and SPAD will become a major trend. 1550nm will continue to use APD, and the threshold for related products is relatively high. Currently, it is mainly monopolized by Sony, Hamamatsu and ON Semiconductor. The 1550nm core Citrix and 905nm Nanjing Core Vision and Lingming Photonics are expected to take the lead in breaking through.

　　3) Calibration end: The semiconductor laser has a small resonator cavity and poor spot quality. In order to meet the lidar standard, the fast and slow axes need to be aligned for optical calibration, and the line light source solution needs to be homogenized. The value of a single lidar is hundreds of yuan.

　　4) TEC: Since Osram has solved the temperature drift of EEL, VCSEL naturally has low temperature drift characteristics, so lidar no longer needs TEC.

　　5) Scanning end: The main barrier of the rotating mirror is timing control, and the MEMS process is relatively difficult. Xijing Technology is the first to achieve mass production.

　　Finally, CITIC Securities concluded that there is a large long-term market space for lidar, and related companies have broad prospects. In 2022, we will usher in large-scale vehicles, and the investment time window has come.

The whole machine has the most investment value.

In the lidar supply chain, the trend of replacing EEL by VCSEL at the transmitter is obvious.

The top brokerage once dismantled the car and wrote a research report

　　The cost of dismantling the five lidars is not much, and the cost of dismantling a car and writing a research report is high. It is precisely because of this that the leading brokerages such as CITIC Securities and Haitong Securities dismantled a car and wrote a research report once caused a heated discussion in the market.

　　In July of this year, CITIC Securities dismantled a Tesla Model 3 and released a research report titled "Viewing the Development Trend of Smart Electric Vehicles from the Dismantling of Model 3".

　　CITIC Securities stated in the report that it hoped that through the analysis of the Tesla Model 3, an intelligent electric benchmark model, it would show Tesla's thinking on the intelligent electrification of automobiles as a global leading automobile company, in order to clarify the possible direction of subsequent industrial development. , to better support relevant decision-making.

　　Specifically, the report conducts a comprehensive analysis on domain controller architecture, wiring harnesses and connectors, batteries, three-electricity and thermal management, and bodywork.

　　At the end of the report, analysts emphasized that the domain control of smart cars has become a trend.

It is recommended to focus on companies related to domain controllers, and it is recommended to pay attention to the supply chains of high-quality vehicle and battery companies such as Tesla, CATL, and LG Chem.

　　Before that, Haitong Securities dismantled a BYD and wrote a research report titled "Haitong Automotive Laboratory - BYD "Yuan" Refinement and Disassembly".

This research report shows and analyzes the details of BYD Yuan EV360 parts one by one, with pictures and texts, which was called the product manual at that time.

Do research reports really need to be dismantled?

　　It is commendable for securities companies to "dismantle" and write research reports. After all, products are constantly being updated. By dismantling related equipment, securities companies can sometimes reflect the latest changes in the industry, allowing investors to have a more comprehensive understanding of certain sub-sectors.

　　However, the cost of dismantling is not low. A new energy vehicle costs hundreds of thousands, plus the time cost of several months, which is not a small pressure for any securities company.

In the field of aerospace research, it is almost impossible to write a research report if you have to dismantle the C919 or rocket.

　　In fact, the method of manually dismantling new energy vehicles and writing research reports is not the first of the domestic top securities firms. Some foreign research teams have already started in-depth research by dismantling new energy vehicles several years ago.

　　As early as 2017, the UBS research team began to dismantle electric vehicles, and in recent years, it has maintained the frequency of dismantling one vehicle for one or two years.

And its "the way of combining big data and research" and the ability to "do it yourself" have gradually developed into one of the characteristics of the research team.

　　It is reported that in 2017, the UBS automotive research team dismantled Chevrolet's Bolt electric car, Tesla's Model 3 in 2018, and in 2021, dismantled the ID3 electric car built on the Volkswagen MEB pure electric platform.

According to UBS Securities, for many years, in different periods, the selection of different models, and the release of the final research and analysis report, all permeate UBS's deep insight and thinking on the electric vehicle industry.

UBS also sent key components of the dismantled ID3 to various important markets including China for demonstration and explanation.

　　In addition to hands-on disassembly of electric vehicles, the team also disassembled consumer electronics such as mobile phones.

At the end of last year, the UBS technology industry research team also dismantled the iPhone 13, and conducted a detailed analysis in terms of material costs by comparing the iPhone 12 dismantling series.