Europe 1 with AFP 11:34 a.m., September 26, 2022

The French economy should grow by 0.6% next year, forecasts the OECD, a level well below the 1% anticipation on which the government is counting, which presents its 2023 budget on Monday. will suffer a greater economic slowdown due to the consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the energy market.

The war will continue to cost the States of the world dearly: the OECD has markedly downgraded its forecast for world growth next year in the face of the more lasting effects than anticipated of the war in Ukraine, with Europe paying the biggest bill.

"Global growth prospects have darkened," the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development wrote in a report released Monday titled "Paying the Price of War."

The lack of calm on the ground in the eighth month of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, symbolized by the recent mobilization of reservists by Moscow, encourages the international organization to be pessimistic about the near future of the economy.

After a trying year 2022 for households and businesses, especially due to the resulting surge in inflation, "global growth should continue to weaken in 2023", underlines the Paris-based institution.

The latter expects global GDP to grow by 2.2% against 2.8% anticipated in previous forecasts in June, although it has maintained its forecast for this year at 3% after having reduced it significantly in recent years. month.

"Inflationary pressures are increasingly widespread, with rising energy, transport and other costs impacting prices," said the OECD, which has revised down its 2023 forecast for the near future. all G20 member countries except Turkey,

2.800 billion

To show the magnitude of the shock of the war on the world economy, the OECD has assessed the financial losses to be expected next year at 2.8 trillion dollars compared to forecasts prior to the arrival of tanks in Ukraine.

It is logically the neighboring countries of kyiv and Moscow that will suffer the most significant costs according to the OECD: growth in the euro zone is undergoing the most significant revision of all the regions of the world with growth expected at 0.3 % against 1.6% expected in June.

The main reason is soaring energy prices, with inflation expected this year at 8.1% and 6.2% next year.

Hailed for months as a major risk by the main world forecasters, the recession is the scenario anticipated by the OECD for Germany: the first European economy would see, according to the OECD, its GDP fall by 0.7% next year. , a dip of 2.4 points compared to the previous forecast.

Its main neighbors escape it: growth of 0.4% is expected in Italy, 1.5% in Spain, and 0.6% in France, where the government is still counting on 1%. 

For its part, the International Monetary Fund forecast in its latest forecasts dating back to July 0.8% growth in Germany, 1% in France and 1.2% in the euro zone, but it could revise its forecasts downwards in October.

Among the other major regions, US growth is expected by the OECD at 0.5% against 1.2% expected in June, and Chinese growth at 4.7% against 4.9%.

"Significant uncertainty"

"A significant uncertainty surrounds these economic projections", concedes the OECD, in particular in front of the risk of shortages of energy during the winter.

The vertiginous rise in prices is already threatening the activity of a growing number of companies, some of which are forced to reduce their activity.

According to the organization, greater gas shortages than expected could have a cascading effect of reducing the GDP of the euro zone by an additional 1.25 points next year, which would then push many States into recession.

This scenario is all the more worrying as the central banks of developed and emerging countries are firmly committed to raising their interest rates to contain inflation, with the risk of undermining growth there too.

Rate hikes are "a key factor" in the current slowdown, notes the OECD, which calls on central bankers to continue, however, to avoid raising them more sharply if inflation continues to soar.

Targeted and temporary fiscal measures to households and businesses are part of the solution to the emergency, the institution points out, saying that so far the measures taken against rising energy prices have been "poorly targeted "because often benefiting too many households and businesses.