A-shares enter the last trading week before the 11th long holiday, how will the market situation be interpreted?
The Paper has collected the opinions of 10 securities companies. Most of the securities companies believe that the current market continues to have limited downside risks, and the valuation of A-shares has regained its attractiveness. The left signal has initially appeared, and they can actively seize the layout opportunities.
CICC said that at present, the overall market valuation has regained its attractiveness.
The superimposed transaction volume continues to shrink, and the strong sectors and strong stocks have recently compensated for the decline. At present, A-shares are gradually indicating that the market is at a historically low position in terms of valuation, capital, and behavior.
CITIC Securities pointed out that with low valuations enhancing market resilience, left-hand signals such as market transactions, private placement positions, and stock and bond valuations have initially appeared.
CITIC Construction Investment Securities further pointed out that after comprehensively considering the current market adjustment cycle, magnitude and current valuation, subsequent investors should actively seize the layout opportunities.
The bad factors currently plaguing the market are weaker than those at the end of April, so the risk of bottoming out this time is expected to be less than that at the end of April.
However, Guotai Junan Securities reminded investors that although most stock valuations have entered a historically low range, the current market does not adequately price risks in a complex environment.
Therefore, when the path of policy, demand and geo-risk is still in a state of uncertainty, there is no rush to buy dips.
In terms of configuration, the growth sector is still favored by many institutions.
Haitong Securities believes that the path to market stabilization may be value building and growth.
Therefore, the industry level continues to be optimistic about the growth of high prosperity, such as new energy and digital economy.
CITIC Construction Investment Securities also pointed out that high-quality companies in the new energy field that are still expected to boom in the peak season in the fourth quarter are worthy of increasing positions on dips.
CITIC Securities: Initial signs on the left
Looking forward to the market outlook, macro factors suppress market sentiment, position adjustment and crowding amplify market volatility, and low valuations enhance market resilience. The left-hand signals such as market transactions, private placements, and stock and bond valuations have initially appeared.
But at the same time, the haze of rapid interest rate hikes and economic recession in Europe and the United States is hard to dissipate, domestic policies are still in the observation period, the economic recovery is slow, and the right time still needs to be waited. The safest time to enter the market is expected to be in October.
Specifically, on the one hand, the market's confidence has been weak recently, gaming transactions have begun to ebb, and market transactions have dropped to a higher level.
Institutions focused on adjusting and reducing positions, and crowded defensive transactions magnified market volatility.
The current dynamic PE of CSI 300 has been comparable to the level in February 2016, December 2018 and March 2020, and the long-term allocation value is prominent.
The signal on the left side of the market has initially appeared.
On the other hand, the end point of the Fed's interest rate hike has been raised, the actual recession in Europe and the United States is gradually approaching, and the disturbance of overseas factors is still relatively large.
The passively depreciated RMB has deviated from the actual supply and demand. The relative trend of the Sino-US economy is the core variable that determines the RMB exchange rate. Compared with the US economy, which is gradually entering recession, it is expected that the domestic economic advantage of slowly recovering will become increasingly obvious.
The domestic policy is in the effect observation period, and high-frequency data shows that the economic recovery is still relatively slow, and the opportunity to enter the market on the right side still needs to wait.
In terms of allocation, because the recent market adjustment is neither the result of forced selling caused by leveraged stop-loss and product redemption, nor the directional changes in fundamentals and policy factors, but the lack of funds and consensus in the market environment, Defensive trades crowded by investors amplified market volatility amid sluggish turnover.
Therefore, it is currently recommended that investors keep their positions and wait patiently for the right moment.
CICC: A-share valuation has regained attractiveness
Looking forward to the market outlook, although the current Chinese economy is greatly affected by the internal and external environment, which leads to investors' low risk appetite for the time being, the fundamental characteristics of China's large market space, sufficient resilience and large room for policy manoeuvre remain unchanged.
At the same time, the overall valuation of the current market has become attractive again, and the transaction volume has continued to shrink. The strong sectors and strong stocks have recently compensated for the decline. At present, A-shares are gradually indicating that the market is in a historical bias in terms of valuation, capital, and behavior. low position.
However, when changing from "defense" to "offensive", we need to focus on policy signals and fundamental signals.
On the whole, although the current weak market volatility may continue for a period of time, it is not appropriate to be pessimistic about the medium-term prospects. The overall situation should be stabilized first, and then progress. Pay attention to maintaining flexibility, grasping the rhythm of the market, and focusing on structure.
In terms of allocation, it is recommended that investors focus on areas with low valuations, low macro-correlation, acceptable prosperity and policy support.
The growth style may still fluctuate in the follow-up, and the strategic style is an opportunity to switch to growth, and it is still necessary to pay attention to the progress of overseas inflation and other aspects.
CITIC Construction Investment Securities: Seize the Layout Opportunity
Looking forward to the market outlook, considering the current market adjustment cycle, magnitude and current valuation, subsequent investors should actively seize the layout opportunities.
Specifically, first of all, the market adjustment cycle and take-back ratio have been sufficient since the end of April, and the bad news currently plaguing the market is weaker than that at the end of April.
At the end of April, the market was simultaneously impacted by major overseas inflation and major tightening, and the risk of bottoming out this time is expected to be less than at the end of April.
Secondly, from the current market valuation level and implied risk premium, it is more cost-effective to allocate equity assets now.
At present, the TTM of the Shanghai Composite Index is only 12.06, which is 6.88% in the past three years.
Wind's all-A price-earnings ratio TTM is only 16.59, at a position of 7.15% in the past three years.
Finally, policy remains closely watching economic recovery for now.
In addition, the Fed continued its hawkish attitude after the annual meeting, but there is no need to be overly pessimistic about subsequent US inflation.
At the same time, the rise in US bond interest rates and the adjustment of the RMB exchange rate are not equal to the outflow of foreign capital.
From a historical review, unless there are systemic risks, the allocation-based funds, which account for about 80% of the northbound funds, will not really flow out.
In terms of allocation, investors are advised to pay attention to two main lines: one is the domestic demand that is building a bottom, and the other is "big security".
At the same time, there are still high-quality companies in the new energy field that are expected to be booming in the peak season in the fourth quarter, which are worthy of bargain-hunting, such as military industry, semiconductor equipment and materials, agriculture, food and beverage, real estate, energy storage, wind power, photovoltaics, lithium batteries, etc.
Guotai Junan Securities: No rush to buy the bottom
Since September, the prices of many domestic assets such as A shares have fluctuated violently and fell below key positions.
The event shock is only the appearance of stock price fluctuations. Behind the weak market is the trend of anti-globalization, and the demand for "safety" has been promoted to a more important position, which means that the elasticity of aggregate policy supply is weakened, and the game Economic policies and economic recovery are becoming increasingly difficult.
Therefore, even though most stock valuations have entered historically low ranges, the current market has not adequately priced risk in a complex environment.
In the uncertain state of policy, demand and the path of geopolitical risks, the stock strategy is not eager to buy the bottom.
In terms of allocation, the downward revision of economic expectations and the decline in risk appetite have become the core reasons for the current stock market adjustment. It becomes difficult to play with the total policy supply and the elasticity of economic recovery. Before there are factors that can reverse the current economic expectations and risk appetite, stock investment Investors are advised to control risk positions with absolute returns, while relative returns emphasize the certainty of stock assets.
Among them, three clues can be paid attention to: First, the military, semiconductor, communications, high-end equipment, etc. with certain policy supply.
The second is coal, petrochemical, power grids, etc., which guarantee energy supply and inflation of physical assets.
The third is the infrastructure that supports the base.
Haitong Securities: The market bottom is relatively solid in April this year
Looking back at the history of A-shares, it can be seen that after the Shanghai Composite Index rebounded from the bottom area, it experienced an obvious rise (more than 15%), and then fell sharply after that. 2012-2013 and 2019-2020.
Summarizing the second dip in A-shares, it can be found that this process often occurred at the turning point when the bear market just ended and the bull market was still brewing, so the market trend at this stage was also tangled.
However, historical experience shows that in the process of the second dip of the A-share index, whether from the point of view of the stock index, valuation or risk premium, the bottom area formed in the early stage is actually relatively solid, and the second dip does not It will clearly break through the previous low.
Looking at the moment, this year A-shares started to rise after reaching a low point at the end of April, but they began to bottom out a second time in early July.
In recent months, 4 of the 5 leading indicators of fundamentals (monetary policy, fiscal policy, manufacturing sentiment and auto sales) have moved to the right, and real estate sales data have also begun to stabilize at the bottom. Looking at the bottom area formed by A shares at the end of April is still relatively solid.
Looking forward to the market outlook, there will be an opportunity for the market to stop falling and stabilize in the future, or measures to stabilize growth will be implemented.
Structurally, the path to market stabilization may be value building and growth.
At the industry level, continue to be optimistic about the growth of high prosperity, such as new energy and digital economy.
GF Securities: Limited downside risk
Recently, white horse stocks have slumped in some strong industries and driven the strong industries to make up for the decline, which is an important signal for the release of market pessimism and the establishment of a bottom.
From the review history, the compensatory decline of strong stocks usually occurs in the weak stage of the broader market. It is generally due to the problem of capital allocation congestion or concerns about performance decline. It is often not far from the staged bottom of the market, which is an important manifestation of the concentrated release of market pessimism. It is generally 20-30pct, and the time is maintained for 1-4 months.
Based on the current round, the recent compensatory decline of strong stocks is similar to historical experience. The compensatory decline has reached 20pct, which has been over a month. The market has entered the second half of the pessimism.
"One trade off and one trade off" has encountered twists and turns. Compared with the low point on April 26, the current market has an overall advantage in terms of winning rate and odds. The recent "strong stocks make up for the fall" proves that the market has entered the second half of the pessimism. , the current situation is similar to but different from the "prudent thinking and action" in January-April, so we maintain the judgment that there is no significant downside risk for A shares.
Looking forward to the market outlook, it is recommended to continue to use fluctuations to balance value and growth: First of all, it is recommended to focus on values with better odds and an improving winning rate, such as real estate leaders and coal.
Secondly, it is recommended to pay attention to household appliances, food and beverages that benefit from the stabilization of the interim report and PPI-CPI transmission.
Finally, it is recommended to pay attention to the subdivisions in which the current stock price of the industry has digested the degree of overdraft in future performance with the framework of “earnings-duration contraction”, such as leading photovoltaic modules, wind power, and media.
Industrial Securities: It is now the bottom area
The recent continuous fluctuations and adjustments in the market are behind the interweaving and resonance of uncertainties at home and abroad, resulting in a sharp contraction of risk appetite in the short term.
From a number of indicators, the market's pessimistic expectations have been largely reflected in the stock price.
Looking back, despite the disturbance of internal and external uncertainties, the short-term market is still weak as a whole due to risk appetite, but the spatial adjustment has been relatively sufficient, and the market is already in the bottom area.
"Price is more important than time" in the bottom area. It is recommended to take advantage of the adjustment of the layout of the third quarterly report and the direction in which the prosperity is expected to continue next year: First, the "new semi-military" (new energy, semiconductor, military industry) is expected to start a new round of upward movement in late October. The second is consumption that is expected to recover.
Specific to the "new semi-military", on the one hand, the current valuation and congestion of several sub-sectors of the "new semi-military" have dropped to historically low levels.
On the other hand, the second half of October is also a node when uncertainties at home and abroad gradually subside.
In addition, the leading indicator also points to the "new half army" starting a new round of upward movement in late October.
It is recommended to focus on the military (aero-engine), semiconductor (materials, design), intelligent driving, energy storage and other subdivisions.
In addition, August consumption data has been repaired.
At the same time, with the slowdown of export growth and the "low peak season" of the real estate chain, "promoting consumption" is also expected to become an important starting point for the follow-up "steady growth".
It is recommended to focus on liquor, aviation, hotels, duty-free and other directions.
Essence Securities: Defend first and then counterattack
Last week, due to the hawkish expectation of the Fed raising interest rates, major equity markets around the world fell, especially the US and Hong Kong stocks were hit hard. The Maginot line of defense was disputed, and the average daily trading volume was further reduced to about 650 billion yuan.
Reviewing the market performance before and after the National Day in the past 20 years, it can be found that there is a clear calendar effect of A shares before and after the National Day. In the past 5 years/nearly 3 years, the trading winning rate in the week before the festival was 40%/40%/40%/0%, and the trading winning rate in the week after the festival was 75%/90%/80%/100%.
At the style level, financial, consumer and market styles dominate.
At present, the Fed's interest rate hike will suppress sentiment and risk appetite, and it is not friendly to high-valued varieties.
There is still risk aversion before the holiday. Currently, it is a defensive counterattack. The first defense is followed by the counterattack. Before mid-October, the value of the large market may remain relatively dominant, but it will not change to the high growth medium and small caps.
Looking forward to the market outlook, it is recommended to over-distribute automobiles (auto parts), green power industry chain represented by energy storage, real estate, photovoltaic, food and beverage, military industry, banking, oil transportation, agrochemical and other industries.
Ping An Securities: The adjustment of the market has entered the middle and late stage
At present, uncertainties at home and abroad are increasing.
Domestically, the epidemic has repeatedly and continued to restrict consumption scenarios, the export boom has declined, the real estate has not seen significant improvement, economic recovery is facing ups and downs, and the policy direction remains to be clarified.
Overseas, the impact of the shrinking liquidity environment and risk events continued, and the market risk appetite was restrained.
The trading activity of the A-share market is not high, and the market funds are mainly wait-and-see.
At present, the market’s expectations for a weakening of economic fundamentals are relatively sufficient, and the fundamental environment in the future will likely not be weaker than in April. The domestic economic recovery will have twists and turns, but the recovery cycle is expected to come, and the policy response direction will gradually become clear.
Of course, overseas uncertainty is rising, and follow-up attention should be paid to the interpretation and impact of risk events.
The adjustment of the market has entered the mid-to-late stage, and vague expectations will gradually usher in revisions. High-end manufacturing, digital economy and new energy-related sectors are still the general direction.
In terms of structure, my country's manufacturing industry still has global competitive advantages. High-end manufacturing, digital economy and green transformation are still the general trend of medium and long-term economic transformation. Short-term impact will not change the long-term prosperity of related industries.
Huaxi Securities: No need to be too pessimistic
Recently, the disturbance of external factors is still disturbing the global risk appetite, and the National Day holiday is approaching. Due to concerns about overseas risk factors during the long holiday, the risk aversion of funds has increased in stages.
Looking forward to the market outlook, after short-term adjustment, A-shares have a sufficient margin of safety, and the valuations of major indexes are relatively close to the lows of the year.
There is no need to be too pessimistic at the moment. The domestic economic fundamentals and monetary policy environment form a favorable support for A shares. If there is no real negative situation overseas during the long holiday, the market risk appetite may be repaired after the holiday.
On the whole, A-shares will continue to show the characteristics of "the index has a ceiling upwards and a support level downwards".
In terms of allocation, it is recommended that investors should be balanced and focus on three main lines: first, real estate.
Second, the new energy sector is subdivided into high-prosperity areas, such as energy storage, wind, and light.
The third is the sector where the valuation has been repaired, such as liquor.