Author: Feng Difan ▪ Elegant

  In the autumn at the end of September, it was a little cold in North Germany. The weather was around 14 degrees Celsius at noon and the rain was overcast. It was already necessary to add clothes when going out.

  In order to keep out the cold, Europeans dug up all kinds of quaint magic weapons.

The Yicai reporter randomly interviewed some Germans in their 40s, and found that they are no strangers to hot water bottles and even electric blankets. This is a kind of "childhood memory". Albert, a German lawyer born in the 1980s, told reporters, He still remembers that in order to save money when he was a child, some families in Germany did not install heating in every house. At night, many people sleep with warm water bags and, of course, electric blankets.

  Another Ms. Zhang, who lives in Hamburg, said in an interview with reporters that the hamburgers are now unbearable, and "you must put on a down jacket before going out."

Because Hamburg is cloudy and rainy at the moment, it is particularly cold in September.

  An arctic cold wave is set to hit Western Europe next week, according to forecasts by several business bodies and national meteorological agencies. This will be the first test for Western Europeans: Should household budgets be reduced and the heating delayed?

  Deutsche Bank warned in its latest report that the natural gas crunch would mean a deeper recession in Europe, with severe winters exacerbating the pain, while soaring energy bills would hit European incomes and lead to lower consumer spending.

Cold winter may come after sweltering heat

  Europe, which has just experienced the scorching heat, may be most afraid of a cold winter.

But what you don't want happens.

Cold snaps from the Arctic will "visit" the UK this week from the 26th and people may be forced to turn on the heat as temperatures plummet to -2C.

  According to forecaster Maxar Technologies Inc, next week, the temperature in London will be nearly 5 degrees Celsius below the average of previous years, such as on September 27, the temperature in London will drop to 6.5 degrees Celsius overnight.

On the 25th, the current temperature in London is between 12 and 16 degrees Celsius.

Temperatures in Frankfurt, Germany, will be 3.5 degrees Celsius below normal on September 28, while parts of France and Spain will also face temperatures of 3 to 4 degrees Celsius below seasonal normal.

  The UK Met Office has also forecast the cold snap in detail.

  Burkeel, senior operational meteorologist at the Met Office, said: "The cold front advancing from the north will bring rain and strong winds late tomorrow (25th) and Monday (26th) night, and with it, There will be cold northerly air coming in."

  "Monday night to Tuesday looks likely to be the coldest, with some rural areas expected to be slightly below freezing at around -2C, which could be the coldest night of the season so far," he predicted.

  "Temperatures will gradually increase thereafter, but it will still be more autumn-like than it has been recently due to strong winds and showers." Birkiel said higher parts of northern Scotland could see snowfall early next week. will drop; while northern England and parts of Scotland are expected to experience heavy rainfall."

  Meanwhile, according to the forecast of the Royal Belgian Meteorological Institute (RMI), a very active cold front will approach Belgium from the coast at noon on Monday (26th), and will pass through Belgium within a day, moving to the southeast.

Influenced by unstable oceanic polar air, this could lead to heavy rain or torrential showers.

  The French weather forecaster LCM said Monday, September 26, marked the beginning of a fundamental change in French weather.

A deep depression slammed into Germany from Iceland and Scotland, and the associated disturbance was very active, passing through much of France by early evening, causing persistent rain.

Chinese electric blankets are selling well in Europe

  Usually in Western Europe, the heating season doesn't officially start until October, but in theory, you can turn on the heat in your home anytime.

What will the residents do in the early cold snap?

  French consultancy EngieEnergyScan said in a report: "Some signs of reduced household demand due to surging retail prices are emerging, but this has yet to be confirmed in the coming weeks."

  In the future, the bills faced by European residents are likely to continue to rise.

Taking Germany as an example, German Economy Minister Habeck announced at the end of July that from October this year, a natural gas surcharge will be levied, with a tax amount of between 0.015 and 0.05 euros per kilowatt-hour, and the lower limit is the annual increase calculated above. 500 euros.

However, if calculated at the highest rate of 0.05 euros, the annual extra gas bill for a family of four may increase by nearly 1,000 euros (about 6,910 yuan).

German statistics show that the average annual consumption of natural gas by a German household is around 20,000 kWh.

  Ms. Zhang told the First Financial Reporter that when she was sorting out some financial bills a few months ago, she had re-registered electricity and gas, and suddenly found that it had increased by two or three times.

She saw that some people in Germany can't pay for heating, and some old Germans who have a memory of history are very worried that there is no heating in winter, "maybe more people will buy hot water bags."

  Since August, according to data from the European Power Exchange, the average price of the European power system on August 30 was 462.1 euros/MWh, an increase of 6 times compared with the beginning of the year; on August 26, the Dutch TTF benchmark natural gas futures closed at 339.195 euros. /MWh, an increase of up to 5 times compared with the beginning of the year.

  The latest data released by the China Household Electrical Appliances Association shows that since 2022, the export value of most home appliance products to Europe has declined. The categories that have increased mainly include air conditioners, electric water heaters, electric heaters, electric blankets, and hair dryers. The cumulative exports from January to July The amounts were US$1.99 billion, US$130 million, US$490 million, US$33.4 million, and US$160 million.

The export volume of electric heaters and electric blankets expanded rapidly, among which electric blankets led other categories with a growth rate of 97%.

In addition, the growth of air source heat pumps is also very eye-catching, and the overall trend of high growth in 2021 has continued.

Judging from the characteristics of these high-growth categories, they all have the effect of temperature regulation, indicating that European consumers are obviously expanding the purchase of heating products to prepare for the upcoming winter.

  From the perspective of the three main growth categories of electric heating, electric blankets and air source heat pumps, in terms of electric heating, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands, Spain, and Germany have strong import demand, while the United Kingdom, France and Poland are relatively sluggish.

In terms of electric blankets, the import demand of various countries has grown rapidly, and Greece, Italy, Poland, Germany, and the Netherlands have all doubled.

Cold winter will exacerbate energy pain

  European residents face higher energy bills, and businesses are no exception.

Especially in Germany and other places, according to regulations, between the needs of enterprises and the needs of residents, if there is a shortage, the needs of residents must be guaranteed first.

  Deutsche Bank recently warned that under the current energy crisis, Europe will suffer a deeper and more prolonged recession than previously predicted, which means European households and businesses should prepare for a cold winter of rationing and organized blackouts, Because countries are trying to replenish the missing Russian gas imports.

  Although the EU has asked its member states to store more gas, Deutsche Bank expects EU member states to suffer a recession this winter's heating season due to higher gas consumption levels.

  Currently, with Russia phasing out or even cutting off gas supplies to the EU entirely in early September, "this has exacerbated the energy supply shock, further increasing the potential upside for inflation and downside for economic growth," Deutsche Bank explained in the report. , Europe needs to cut gas consumption, which will lead to a major loss of industrial output, which will also drive up economic uncertainty and have a knock-on effect through trade.

  All told, this could lead to a 3% drop in gross domestic product (GDP) in the euro zone from July this year to the same month next year.

  Deutsche Bank also warned that if a severe cold snap occurs, Europe could face further pain this winter.

Some countries may be forced to implement energy rationing, while some households struggle to pay their heating bills.

"The near-term impact this winter will be most affected by the extent of rationing, whether through forced cuts or price-based mechanisms."

  Deutsche Bank also believes that while conditions may improve in the medium term, natural gas supplies will remain tight and prices remain high, which will continue to affect the competitiveness of European companies and institutions. Colder than usual, widening supply chain shortages caused by cuts in industrial gas, and structural competitiveness concerns are key downside factors.”

  It is worth noting that at present, many European leaders have embarked on a global "search for gas" journey, but it has little effect.

Li Xiang, an associate researcher at the Energy Research Institute of Peking University, said in a recent interview with a reporter from China Business News that during the soaring natural gas prices in continental Europe in 2021, a large number of liquefied natural gas (LNG) ships around the world will turn to Western Europe, including even LNG from Australia. ferry.

  "However, the amount of LNG shipped at sea is limited, and it is impossible to rely on LNG alone. If it is simply imported from the United States, the cost of long-distance transportation is too high, and there is no way to guarantee safety." Li Xiang said.