Exports grow 24.2% and pull growth, although the lower car sales are worrying

• Why foreign trade will weigh down Spain's growth this year and next

In the first seven months of the year,

an increase due to the fact that we have sold 6.1% more in volume, at a price 17.1% more expensive ), but despite the general improvement, the country has experienced

such as

, according to the latest

published this week by the Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Tourism.

The good behavior of

has been largely responsible for the

1.5

compared to the previous quarter and

in year-on-year terms, as updated this Friday by the National Institute of Statistics (INE).

In fact, exports contributed 7.9 points to the interannual rate of growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which was cushioned because imports subtracted 3 points.

Foreign demand contributed 4.9 points to year-on-year growth.

In the accumulated from January to July, the country exported goods and services worth 222,961 million euros, a historical maximum for this period;

but

(especially due to the greater need for energy and at a higher price), hence the country's trade deficit has increased and with what we export we only cover 85% of our purchases to other countries.

The breakdown by product, however, reflects a

to

million euros (8% of total foreign sales);

a decrease of

in the export of

(computers, smartphones, tablets, headphones, etc.);

a fall of 7.3% in the sale of

;

5% in

and 1.5% in

.

These are the only products of all those exported by the country that have suffered a

but especially the lower sales of automobiles is worrying for the experts consulted by this means, who see in this decrease a reflection of the

Vehicle

are not only 3.7% lower than those of 2021 (which were 18,470.9 million), but they are still

, the year before the pandemic, when they were 19,082.6 million.

The sale of car

has performed better, hence the automotive sector as a whole has registered sales only

The main reason for the fall in sales lies in the

Spanish exports -both in general and for automobiles-, which are mainly European, with a special weight from

This is having a direct impact on our exports as it translates into

Raúl Mínguez Fuentes

, director of the study service of the

explains to EL MUNDO that this weakness in demand that began in the covid, later worsened with the impact of the war in Ukraine and the

that It has been caused by

"There has been a fall in purchasing power by both individuals and companies, and this is compounded by

, which are impregnated with uncertainty, and discourage purchases, especially of some durable products such as automobiles."

The loss of purchasing power that potential buyers have suffered due to the effect of inflation, which in the Eurozone stood at

means that their ability to purchase a vehicle is lower and that in many cases this It is no longer among their priorities.

Supply problems and more expensive credit

On the

side there have also been problems that have harmed exports, such as the

, which has led some manufacturers to even have to stop production, as in the case of

at its plant in

.

In some cases, despite the fact that demand from abroad has been maintained, exports have been affected by not having finished vehicles to sell abroad.

Sources from the Spanish Association of Automobile and Truck Manufacturers (

) point out to this newspaper that it is precisely the offer that is to blame for the fall.

"The drop in car exports is a

derived from the breakdown of the semiconductor and chip supply chain. In fact,

from January to July is 4.4% and exports are down 6%".

"It is not a problem of demand, which remains strong," they

defend.

"It is the global problem of the semiconductor crisis that affects production. And it affects all types of vehicles, makes and models, regardless of whether they are general or premium, all of them. Because

understanding itself strongly within this current supply situation that has been influenced by the war in Ukraine and closures due to confinement due to Covid in world-renowned ports such as Shanghai a few weeks ago".

These difficulties, both on the demand side and on the supply side, "do not appear to be going to dissipate in the remainder of the year", which is why Mínguez predicts that, although inflation is moderating,

Another factor is the

and less favorable financing conditions, which may lead buyers to

high-priced durable goods for which they may need to apply for credit, such as a car or a computer. .

"It is empirically proven that tightening monetary policy has a disincentive effect on the purchase of durable goods," he notes.

Added to these factors from the point of view of demand is a

sector, since consumer preferences in many cases are turning towards the green economy -electric or hybrid cars-, hence The

has fallen

.

This structural change in demand explains why the lower Spanish exports have not been massively replaced by sales from other countries.

"There is no market that is substituting our exports.

and this is a question of demand in general", points out the expert from the Chamber of Commerce.

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