Fedea anticipates a "stagnation" in job creation with a slowdown in permanent contracts

The recovery of the labor market after the pandemic and with the entry into force of the labor reform enters a new stage this third quarter.

Economists from the Foundation for Applied Economics Studies (Fedea) anticipate that job creation is slowing down both in the total volume of new workers and in the hiring model they register.

"The Social Security affiliation records for July and August anticipate a stagnation in the number of contributors

in the third quarter, while waiting to know their evolution in September", concludes the report presented this morning at the

, a project that it shares with the EY-Sagardoy Institute and BBVA Research.

Rafael Doménech, head of economic analysis at BBVA Research,

explained that in the second quarter, job creation lost momentum in the second quarter, since both the growth of the extensive margin (employees) and the intensive margin (hours worked) were moderated between April and June regardless of the indicator considered.

In his opinion, the stagnation that he anticipates "is consistent with other indicators of the economy," as is the case with the quarterly data on Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Already last July, after the publication of the data from the Active Population Survey for the second quarter, both the Government and the Bank of Spain warned of a more negative trend than suggested by unpublished records since 2008.

" called for prudence and promised the support of the State to the affected workers.

Her colleague in Social Security,

.

In other words, the recovery in employment has peaked.

The stagnation does not occur only in terms of the volume of workers hired but also in the quality of the employment that is generated

, an aspect that fully affects the labor reform that came into force partially on January 1 and completely on the second quarter with the new contracting rules.

, one of the main experts in labor matters, has stressed that the impact of the labor reform on indefinite affiliation has "stopped" in recent months, although the number of these contracts remains "very substantial".

Throughout the presentation of the study, both Felgueroso and the rest of the economists have stressed that it

.

But, in any case, they are much less enthusiastic than the vice president regarding the turnaround that has occurred in the labor market in terms of ending job insecurity.

In short, it could be said that the labor reform has minimized temporary employment but that

An example could be the discontinuous fixed contracts that the Labor Inspectors point out as potential sources of precariousness.

But Felgueroso has pointed out that there is an increase in the number of casualties of indefinite contracts compared to 2019, the year before the pandemic, while there is a decrease in the case of temporary contracts, due to the fact that fewer are signed. since the entry into force of the labor reform.

For his part, Fedea associate researcher

pointed out that "having an indefinite contract is better than having a temporary one" but warned that

" in employees with discontinuous fixed contracts, since although have the same contract as it is fixed, they can have "the same instability".

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