Author: Duan Siyu
Following the pace of major state-owned banks, recently, Ping An Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, Minsheng Bank, China Guangfa Bank and many other joint-stock banks and city commercial banks have lowered the interest rate of time deposits, and the adjustment range is between 5 and 50 basis points, which will further reduce The cost of bank liabilities will ease the pressure of narrowing interest margins.
However, only a few city commercial banks have lowered their interest rates, and most of them are still on the sidelines.
"We haven't adjusted yet. The finance department of the head office and branch is collecting information on the actual interest rate reduction of other banks, and then formulating our response strategy, which mainly depends on the implementation of the same industry." A relevant person from the office of a city commercial bank in East China told Yicai.com reporter .
The reporter learned that this is also the current choice of most city commercial banks.
In the context of falling market interest rates, the consensus in the industry is that in the future, more banks will follow suit to reduce deposit interest rates, leaving room for subsequent reductions in the financing costs of real enterprises.
Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of China Merchants Union Finance and a part-time researcher of the Financial Research Institute of Fudan University, said that during this process, different banks have different development strategies, debt capacity and business structure, and the extent and pace of deposit interest rate adjustments may be quite different.
For investors, since the beginning of this year, the capital market has become more volatile, residents' risk appetite has declined, and more people prefer deposits. Therefore, compared with the reduction of bank loan interest rates, the impact of deposit interest rate adjustments is more obvious.
More stock banks follow up to cut deposit rates
"We adjusted it after September 16. Except for the 15BP reduction in the 3-year time deposit rate, most of the other varieties have dropped by 10BP, and the large-denomination certificates of deposit have also dropped from the original 3.3% to about 3.25%." A certain Shanghai Pudong Development Bank The branch customer manager told reporters.
According to the reporter's incomplete statistics, China Merchants Bank, Ping An Bank, China Everbright Bank, China CITIC Bank, Minsheng Bank, Hua Xia Bank, Guangfa Bank, Hengfeng Bank and many other branches have lowered the interest rate of time deposits recently.
Most of the 3-month, 6-month, one-year, and two-year fixed deposit interest rates of the above-mentioned banks have dropped by 10BP, and the 3-year and 5-year deposit rates are between 10 and 50BP.
This is the second round of cuts in personal deposit rates this year.
After the adjustment, the listed interest rates for deposits of a number of joint stock banks remained basically the same.
Among them, the interest rates of 3-month, 6-month and one-year time deposits are mostly 1.3%, 1.55% and 1.85% respectively; the interest rate of two-year time deposits is between 2.15% and 2.4%; The fixed deposit interest rates of 2.65% and 2.7% are mostly.
In addition to the joint-stock bank, according to media reports, the deposit interest rate in some areas of Bank of Nanjing has actually been lowered. For example, the bank's Nanjing branch adjusted the 5-year time deposit interest rate from the previous 3.75% to 3.65%. The adjustment date is September 16. ; The one-year, two-year, and three-year fixed deposit interest rates have not been adjusted yet, which are 2.1%, 2.6%, and 3.25%, respectively.
However, Yicai searched the official account of Bank of Nanjing and found that the reference interest rate for deposits announced by the bank has not changed.
The reporter also inquired about the relevant departments of the headquarters of many city commercial banks such as Bank of Ningbo and Bank of Shanghai, and they all reported that the deposit interest rate has not been adjusted for the time being.
"We will pay attention to the adjustment of other peers and adopt a follow-up strategy." The above-mentioned person in the office of a city commercial bank in East China told reporters.
Even so, many industry insiders believe that more banks will join the ranks of interest rate cuts in the future.
Dong Ximiao said that the bank's reduction of deposit interest rates is not only due to the bank's own reasons, but also affected by many external factors.
From the perspective of internal factors, this is an active behavior of banks to strengthen asset-liability management and maintain a basically stable interest rate spread.
Since the beginning of this year, banks have increased their interest in the real economy, and the LPR (loan market quoted interest rate) has dropped significantly.
Banks lowered deposit interest rates and reduced costs on the liability side, which helped to keep interest margins stable while further driving down asset-side interest rates, reducing financing costs for companies and residents, and stimulating effective financing needs.
Shen Chao, a macro strategy analyst at HSBC Jintrust Fund, also told reporters that the deposit rate cut this time is to hedge against the downward pressure on bank asset-side yields in the early stage.
Previously, the central bank guided the interest rate self-discipline mechanism to establish a market-oriented adjustment mechanism for deposit interest rates. The member banks of the self-discipline mechanism refer to the bond market interest rate represented by the 10-year treasury bond yield and the loan market interest rate represented by the 1-year LPR to reasonably adjust deposits. interest rate level.
The interest rate of treasury bonds fell significantly in the previous period, and the LPR was also lowered several times. Therefore, the bank lowered the deposit interest rate accordingly this time.
According to data from the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the net interest margin of commercial banks in the second quarter was 1.94%, which was 3BP narrower than that in the first quarter, and was at a historical low. This was mainly due to the several reductions in policy interest rates since the beginning of the year and the impact of benefiting the real economy.
According to statistics from China Merchants Securities, the deposit interest rate cut this time will ultimately reduce the bank's deposit interest rate by about 7 basis points and the cost rate of interest-bearing liabilities by about 5 basis points, which can significantly ease the pressure on banks' interest margins next year.
Bank adjustment strategies vary
Judging from the rate of reduction of deposit interest rates, the rate of adjustment for different types of banks is slightly different.
In contrast, the six major state-owned banks and China Merchants Bank adjusted the 3-year interest rate by a larger margin, while other joint-stock banks lowered the 5-year deposit rate more aggressively.
Specifically, before this adjustment, the listed interest rates of 3-year and 5-year deposits of the six major state-owned banks and China Merchants Bank were both 2.75%, but among the actual execution interest rates, the 5-year fixed deposit rates of some banks even Below the 3-year fixed deposit interest rate, there is an interest rate inversion.
"The asymmetric adjustment of the three-year and five-year periods this time aims to adjust the interest rate term structure and repair the shape of the interest rate curve." Wang Yifeng, chief analyst of the financial industry of Everbright Securities, told reporters.
As for other joint-stock banks, Wang Yifeng said that under the current background of serious deposit regularization, joint-stock banks' demand for long-term deposits has declined, and then they will moderately control the absorption of 5-year fixed deposits. It has been expected to continue to reduce the interest rate spread of newly issued loans. It is not expected that customers will “lock in” profits in advance through deposits with a maturity of more than 3 years, which will intensify interest rate risk. main reason.
For example, the 5-year fixed deposit interest rate of China Guangfa Bank has been reduced by 50BP compared with the previous period, while the 3-year fixed deposit rate has been reduced by 45BP; the 5-year fixed deposit interest rate of China Everbright Bank has been reduced by 30BP compared with the previous period, while the 3-year fixed deposit rate has been reduced by 10BP.
Overall, after the interest rate adjustment, the listed interest rates of major state-owned banks are basically the same, while the listed interest rates of joint-stock banks and city commercial banks are relatively high.
From the bank's point of view, the reduction in interest rates will benefit banks with a high proportion of personal deposits.
Yu Jinxin, an analyst at Minsheng Securities, said that if the deposit rate cut is extended to more banks, the net interest margins of large banks and rural commercial banks will improve or relatively significantly.
This is due to the fact that large banks and rural commercial banks in listed banks account for a relatively high proportion of personal deposits, and the proportion of personal time deposits of rural commercial banks is significantly higher than that of other types of banks, reaching 50.4% as of the first half of this year.
"The large state-owned banks and China Merchants Bank have a better customer base, lower deposit concentration than other banks, weaker bargaining power of customers, and larger scale of settlement funds. The listed interest rate actually improves the debt cost of such banks. Better." Wang Yifeng mentioned that, on the contrary, other joint-stock banks have a low proportion of demand deposits, a high concentration of corporate deposits, and strong bargaining power of customers. The reduction of listed interest rates will improve the cost of liabilities and revenue of such banks. weaker.
What are the implications for investors?
For investors, the adjustment of bank deposit rates has always attracted much attention.
Since the beginning of this year, the capital market has become more volatile, the net value of stocks, funds and wealth management products has fluctuated greatly, residents' risk appetite has declined, and more people prefer deposits.
Therefore, compared with the reduction of bank loan interest rate, the impact of deposit interest rate adjustment is more obvious.
The central bank's survey of urban savers in the second quarter of this year showed that 58.3% of residents were inclined to "save more", an increase of 3.6 percentage points from the previous quarter.
Lowering the deposit interest rate may, to a certain extent, help residents to increase their willingness to consume and invest, and is conducive to the transfer of funds to the real sector, thereby promoting the formation of easy credit.
Data show that in August this year, resident deposits and corporate deposits increased by 0.83 trillion yuan and 0.06 trillion yuan respectively, an increase of 1.17 trillion yuan and 2 trillion yuan from the previous month, and an increase of 0.49 trillion yuan and 39,000 yuan respectively year-on-year. billion.
Among them, the new scale of resident deposits hit a record high for the same period in history, and the new scale of corporate deposits was only lower than the same period in 2016.
Market players have a strong willingness to save, and the regularization of deposits continues to intensify.
After the deposit rate cut, this situation may change.
Huang Dazhi, a senior researcher at Xingtu Financial Research Institute, said that for depositors with low risk appetite, other products with certain alternatives can be selected.
Such as monetary funds, pure debt funds, bank cash management wealth management tools (such as various baby products of banks), interbank deposit certificate index funds, and products such as incremental whole life insurance that can lock in long-term yields.
"Compared with bank deposits, although these products are not guaranteed by the deposit insurance system like bank deposits, they are very similar to bank deposits in terms of risk, liquidity and profitability, and can replace deposits to a certain extent." Huang Dazhi In addition to choosing products with the same capital preservation nature and similar products, it is also an option to appropriately increase personal risk appetite and increase the allocation ratio of equity assets.
Dong Ximiao believes that the decline of risk-free interest rates in the Chinese market will be a long-term trend.
For the majority of residents, if there are more deposits and cash management wealth management products in asset allocation, the yield may decline.
The relationship between risks and returns should be well balanced, and a diversified asset allocation should be made based on one's own risk tolerance and investment and financial management needs.
In addition, Shen Chao also mentioned that lowering the deposit interest rate has substantially reduced the risk-free rate of return in the market, which is expected to increase market risk appetite to a certain extent, which is beneficial to the bond and A-share markets.