• End of the last brick fever Brake on prices and more expensive mortgages in the new era of housing

  • Novation Market, grace periods and other alternatives to lower the mortgage

The

Euribor

continues its dizzying climb and has already settled at levels not seen since the bursting of the real estate bubble.

The provisional average for the month of September exceeded 2% yesterday

, which is the highest level since November 2011, and the impact it may have on three out of four mortgage holders in Spain, who keep their loans at a variable rate and now exposed to the increase in the index with an unusual rapidity.

In just twelve months, the Euribor has turned around completely and has gone from -0.492% in September 2021

to 2.016%, which is the provisional average rate

for September 2022. In the sector, it is not surprising that the indicator is on the rise, taking into account that it comes from historically low levels and that the European Central Bank (ECB) is raising rates;

what is surprising is the speed at which it is going up.

Just one month earlier, in August, the average rate was 1.249%.

The concern now is the impact that these changes may have on the more than four million people who support a variable mortgage in our country.

According to data from the

Spanish Mortgage Association (AHE)

, at the end of 2021 there were 5,529,502 live mortgages in Spain, and 75.1% of them (4,152,656) were variable rate.

Most of the variable loans for housing in Spain are referenced to the Euribor and its rise now puts in check many families who see how

they will have to face more expensive installments

, while reducing their purchasing power due to the effect of inflation.

The ghost of the last

brick

boom

revives

these weeks more than ever before the fear of repeating the situation of defaults that affected tens of thousands of homes a little over a decade ago.

Evictions then became a daily occurrence, many families lost their homes and delinquencies shook the foundations of the national banking system.

In recent months, the Bank of Spain has begun to detect that the lowest incomes are already reducing their expenses to meet basic expenses such as the electricity bill, while the medium and high incomes have already begun to pull savings reduce the amount accumulated for the future.

With regard to mortgages, the fear of non-payment and delinquency is growing at the same rate as the Euribor, although the consequences of the increase in the index will not be the same for all mortgage holders.

From the Idealista

real estate portal

they assure that these will depend on the moment in which the mortgage was contracted.

"Those who contracted a variable mortgage in August 2021 will have to face an

increase in the monthly fee of 118 euros (1,421 euros per year)

; of 104 euros per month (1,245 euros per year) in the case of contracting it in 2018, and of 44 euros per month (528 per year) in the event that he had hired her in 2005", summarized in the signature.

According to

Funcas

, the consensus expects the Euribor to reach 2.3% by the end of 2023, although other entities do not rule out that it will even reach 3%, depending on the evolution of the European economy and whether the ECB raises rates once more in 2022 or twice at the October and December meetings.

"If we take into account that until March we had negative rates, the minimum annual increases for mortgages that are reviewed imminently already exceed 1,300 euros, on average," calculates the

Association of Financial Users

(Asufin) as a result of the historic rise in rates by the Eurobank just a week ago.

According to its forecasts, the Euribor will stand at 2.2% at the end of the year, "which means that family loans will become more expensive by 130 euros per month and more than 1,500 euros per year."

In addition, if this trend continues, "it is possible that in 2023 we will already reach 3% of Euribor. This translates into

mortgage prices that could already exceed 2,000 euros

, taking as reference a standard loan of 100,000 euros, at 25 years" .

more expensive loans

The ride will not only affect people who already have a variable mortgage, but also those who want to contract it now, because the offers have become more expensive.

Consumers with a

fixed mortgage

are protected from the changes, but difficulties will come for those who intend to sign a fixed home loan now, because they are more expensive and because some entities have begun to

exclude them from their offer

in an attempt to redirect demand towards the variables, which are more profitable for their business.

Other alternatives in which future buyers seek refuge from inflation, such as mixed mortgages, are also gaining momentum.

According to the Trioteca

mortgage platform

, the volume of mortgages of this type formalized on its website tripled in August compared to the previous month.

Mixed

mortgages

are a type of loan that has a fixed interest during its first years and a variable rate for the rest of the term.

These characteristics are very attractive for the banking business, which is why recently the entities are offering

more effusively

than in previous months.

However, they do not always compensate clients, since they are more expensive than a variable during the first years and offer less protection in the long run than a fixed rate loan.

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