China News Service, Beijing, September 16 (Chief Financial Reporter Li Jinlei) Despite the multiple unexpected challenges such as frequent outbreaks of epidemics and extreme high temperature weather, China's economy continued to recover in August, and major indicators such as investment and consumption generally improved. Most indicators better than last month.
Investment growth picks up for the first time this year
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that from January to August, the national fixed asset investment increased by 5.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.1 percentage points higher than that from January to July, which was the first rebound this year.
Playing the key role of investment is crucial to stabilizing the economy and promoting sustained economic recovery.
Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank, believes that investment has initially reversed the slowdown that has continued this year and is better than market expectations.
In terms of structure, the cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment, manufacturing investment and the year-on-year growth rate of the month all rebounded.
Data show that from January to August, infrastructure investment increased by 8.3% year-on-year, 0.9 percentage points higher than that from January to July; manufacturing investment increased by 10.0%, 0.1 percentage point higher; real estate development investment decreased by 7.4%, a decrease compared with January-July Expanded by 1.0 percentage points.
Fu Linghui, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the National Economic Comprehensive Statistics Department, pointed out that the acceleration of investment growth was achieved in the context of the expansion of the decline in real estate investment, indicating the effect of the investment stabilization policy, especially for infrastructure investment and The impact of manufacturing investment is gradually emerging.
In the next stage, we will continue to make good use of policy and development financial tools, revitalize the local balance of special debt, and promote social investment.
Data map: Real estate real estate.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Bin
The cumulative growth rate of consumption turns from negative to positive
Data show that from January to August, the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 28.256 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%. From January to July, it fell by 0.2%, and the growth rate turned from negative to positive.
Fu Linghui said that in August, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 2.7 percentage points higher than the previous month. China's domestic consumption potential is still huge.
"The policy of stabilizing consumption will continue to play a role." In Wen Bin's view, driven by the policy of halving the car purchase tax, car consumption in August increased by 15.9% year-on-year, a rise from 9.7% in the previous month.
Automobile consumption accounts for about 10% of social zero, and this boosting effect cannot be ignored.
Fu Linghui judged that under the influence of precise epidemic prevention and control and consumption promotion policies, residents' consumption is expected to gradually recover.
In particular, the promotion of preferential policies for consumption of automobiles and home appliances is conducive to boosting the growth of sales of bulk commodities.
Price rises fall
Data show that in August, the national consumer price (CPI) rose by 2.5% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%.
According to Fu Linghui's analysis, from the situation in August, although extreme weather such as high temperature and drought has a certain role in pushing up prices, especially the price of fresh food has a certain impact.
However, in general, the domestic market's efforts to ensure supply and stabilize prices are gradually taking effect, the supply of domestic goods and services is generally sufficient, and the lagging impact of the decline in international oil prices is also emerging.
However, pork prices have rebounded. Under the influence of the low base last year, pork prices rose by 22.4% year-on-year, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the CPI rise of about 0.3 percentage points.
Fu Linghui believes that recently, the relevant departments have launched two consecutive releases of the central frozen pork reserve this year, and instructed all localities to increase the release of pork reserves.
On the whole, pork prices may rise in the next stage, but there is no basis for a sharp rise, and there are still good conditions for price stability.
The real estate market is still in a downtrend
In terms of the property market, data show that from January to August, the sales area of commercial housing across the country fell by 23% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from January to July.
The sales of commercial housing fell by 27.9%, the decline narrowed by 0.9 percentage points.
Wen Bin believes that the decline in real estate sales is narrowing after the central bank guides the reduction of the LPR and the local government continues to relax the regulation of "one city, one policy".
"Although there have been some positive changes in the real estate market, it should be noted that the entire real estate market is still in a downward process, and the year-on-year decline in real estate development investment has expanded compared with the previous month." Fu Linghui said that from the improvement in sales to real estate In terms of investment in production, a process is still needed.
To promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, we still need to continue to make efforts.
What is the future economic trend?
With the repeated epidemics across the country, what impact will it have on achieving this year's economic growth target?
Fu Linghui said that in August, in the face of the spread of the epidemic in some areas and the impact of extreme high temperature weather, industrial production in Sichuan, Chongqing and other places affected by extreme high temperature weather experienced a major decline.
However, some major economic provinces, such as Jiangsu, Fujian and Zhejiang, have recovered well and played an important role in the stable operation of the entire economy.
He judged that from the perspective of the whole year, despite facing some challenges, with the gradual effect of a series of economic stabilization policies and measures, the trend of China's economy moving towards high-quality development will not change, and the economy will still maintain a recovery trend throughout the year.
Wen Bin predicts that as the impact of the epidemic weakens and the policy effect continues to play, the foundation for economic recovery is expected to be further consolidated. It is expected that GDP is expected to rebound in the third quarter.
(Finish)