(Economic Watch) "World Factory" Flying Southeast?
China News Agency, Beijing, September 16 (Reporter Xia Bin) "China's manufacturing ecosystem is so advanced and developed that I don't think any country can replace China in terms of China's manufacturing ecosystem." ASEAN and China, Japan and South Korea Xu Heyi, chief economist at the Macroeconomic Research Institute (AMRO), said.
Will Vietnam and other Southeast Asian countries replace China as the new "world factory"?
Discussions on this topic have continued in recent years.
Recently, the 24th academic report of the International Finance Forum (IFF) with the theme of "The Rise of Asia" was held. Xu Heyi made the above judgment when participating in the meeting.
According to him, China itself has been outsourcing some supplies to other countries in the Asian region, such as Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, and now more and more services are being transferred to Malaysia, Thailand, etc.
"These countries benefit to some extent from the so-called 'China + 1' strategy."
The "China +1" strategy was originally proposed by Japan in the early 21st century, that is, transferring part of the industrial chain to a third country.
Regarding the current phenomenon of global supply chain adjustment, Daniel Lund, senior vice president of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), believes that more and more countries may adopt the "China + 1" strategy for supply in the future. Chain adjustment, so some manufacturing companies may relocate to other countries.
But he also bluntly stated that China's perfect and advanced manufacturing ecosystem is difficult to replace.
Justin Yifu Lin, Dean of the Institute of New Structural Economics at Peking University, said that this is an adjustment based on economic principles, because when China's per capita income is increasing, of course it needs to develop to the next industrial stage, and the supply chain adjustment currently seen is basically It is based on economic principles, which is good for China and also good for other countries.
Xu Heyi said: "The current global supply chain is very efficient, and it affects the whole body. Any idea of dismantling the global supply chain is almost impossible to achieve."
According to a report released by the Cross-border E-commerce Research Center of Ali Research Institute at this year's Service Trade Fair, although Vietnam's industrial chain and domestic cross-border industrial chains coexist with competition and complementarity, it is difficult to replace China's important position in the global value chain. .
In addition, in the era of digital trade, China's cross-border industrial chain is ushering in an important period of opportunity for the establishment of new comparative advantages.
"Currently, China's garment industry has the advantage of raw material origin, accounting for more than 70% of the world's raw materials, and has the international leading advantages of independent technology and equipment in spinning, weaving, printing and dyeing, as well as flexible supply and small order quick return production capabilities based on a complete link system." Ouyang Cheng, deputy dean of the Ali Research Institute, said that, coupled with the ability of the consumer electronics industry to achieve a "one-hour parts matching circle", it is difficult for Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam to replace China's important position in the global value chain.
It is particularly noteworthy that new energy products, agricultural machinery equipment, machine tool equipment, industrial robots and other mechanical products, geotechnical materials, wood, stone and other construction products on Alibaba International Station are still exported to Southeast Asia as finished products. Primary, intermediate and raw material demand is relatively weak.
A study by the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences also shows that 53% of Vietnamese industries form a general competitive relationship with domestic industries such as transfer of production sites, and 42% form complementary relationships such as cross-border value chain trade with domestic industries.
However, from the perspective of China's industry, China still has an overwhelming industrial advantage over Vietnam.
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