Our reporter Li Chunlian Gui Xiaosun
Trainee reporter Xu Linyan
After a few months, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has returned to a high of 500,000 yuan/ton.
The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose all the way from the beginning of this year to a high of 500,000 yuan/ton in March, when the market was in an uproar.
After the high price fluctuated for more than a month, until mid-April, when the price fell below 500,000 yuan / ton, market participants debated the prospects of the lithium carbonate market and held different opinions on the price trend.
However, the price has not fallen too much and has been hovering above 400,000 yuan/ton.
The high price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has an increasingly prominent impact on upstream and downstream, and is also reshaping the entire industrial chain.
As the most critical material for new energy vehicle power batteries, the surge in lithium prices has made the cost of mid-stream and downstream enterprises higher and higher. Power battery companies and downstream car companies represented by the Ningde era have also fallen into a vicious circle of price increases to cope with high cost pressures.
The high prosperity of new energy vehicles continues. Although listed companies continue to expand production, the contradiction between supply and demand of lithium carbonate is still difficult to solve in the short term, forcing industry chain companies to start doing their best.
In order to get rid of the passive situation of lack of lithium resources and rising lithium prices, Ningde Times, BYD and other mid- and downstream enterprises have begun to integrate their layouts, joining the upstream mining army and laying out downstream power battery recycling.
Many business people and experts interviewed by reporters from "Securities Daily" believe that with the rapid development of new energy vehicles, the installed capacity of power batteries continues to increase, which means that lithium carbonate will be in short supply in the short term, and the price will remain high. In the face of high cost pressure, the integrated industrial chain layout is becoming the common choice of current power battery companies and car companies.
Will the price of lithium carbonate rise again?
The latest data from Shanghai Steel Federation shows that on September 13, battery-grade lithium carbonate rose by 2,600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 500,000 yuan/ton.
This price has risen nearly 8 times from the beginning of 2021, and nearly 80% from the beginning of this year; on September 14, battery-grade lithium carbonate still maintained a high price of 500,000 yuan per ton.
In this regard, Qu Yinfei, a lithium industry analyst at Shanghai Ganglian New Energy Division, told a reporter from Securities Daily that supply and demand issues led the price of lithium carbonate to rise. The increase in the price of mines in the spot market has increased, and various factors have supported the price of lithium carbonate to return to a high level.
In an interview with a reporter from Securities Daily, Li Shun, the secretary of Salt Lake Co., Ltd., said that the main reason for the rise in lithium carbonate prices was that the entire market was in short supply.
In addition, the new lithium iron phosphate plants in the downstream part have been built and started one after another, and the market demand for lithium has increased.
"With the arrival of the traditional peak sales season, the advance stocking of the industrial chain has led to the rise in the price of lithium carbonate, which is expected to remain at a high level in these two quarters." Cheng Ling, an analyst at Xinyu Lithium Battery, told the "Securities Daily" reporter.
Under the background of high demand, listed companies are accelerating the expansion of lithium carbonate production capacity.
Salt Lake Co., Ltd. stated on the interactive platform on September 13 that the company has now achieved a production capacity of 30,000 tons of lithium carbonate, and the self-built 40,000-ton basic lithium salt integration project has been implemented. The lithium carbonate project is in progress.
On September 14, Guoxuan Hi-Tech also stated in reply to investors that the smelting and processing end Guoxuan Kefeng is expected to produce about 8,000 tons of lithium carbonate this year. Gradually increase, the cost will continue to decline.
At the same time, Guoxuan Hi-Tech plans to build 50,000 tons of lithium carbonate projects in Yifeng and Fengxin, and each will support 7.5 million tons of lepidolite ore mining and dressing projects. In fact, Yifeng Phase I 25,000 tons of lithium carbonate project is expected to be Putting into production in the first quarter of next year will also provide strong support for the company's lithium carbonate shipment target next year.
In addition, Ganfeng Lithium, Zangge Mining, Tianqi Lithium and other related listed companies are actively expanding lithium carbonate production capacity.
According to statistics from the Xinyu database, the new global lithium carbonate production capacity will be about 180,000 tons in 2022; the global lithium carbonate production capacity will be about 400,000 tons in 2023.
Cheng Ling believes that, driven by high profits, all capitals around the world are working hard to open mines, but the mining cycle of mines takes 3 to 5 years to increase, and it is still tense in the short term.
"It will take time for the construction and production of lithium carbonate, the tight supply of resources will affect the utilization rate of product capacity, and the terminal demand will exceed expectations.
While supply is tight, demand is still increasing substantially. The rapid growth of new energy vehicles has driven the power battery industry to continue to be hot.
According to data from the China Automobile Association, from January to August this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in my country reached 3.97 million and 3.86 million respectively, an increase of 1.2 times and 1.1 times year-on-year, and the market share of new energy vehicles reached 22.9%.
Many market participants expect that sales of new energy vehicles will continue to hit a new high this year, which also means that both power batteries and lithium carbonate will be in high demand.
According to data released by TrendForce on September 14, the installed capacity of the global power battery market is expected to increase from 100 million kWh to 100 million kWh by 2024, and will exceed 300 million kWh by 2030. Among them, the installed capacity of China's power battery market is It is expected to account for about 45% of the world.
Li Ruixue, secretary of the board of Zangge Mining, said in an interview with a reporter from "Securities Daily" that the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to grow, and some new energy vehicle manufacturers upgraded their production lines and expanded their production capacity in the second half of the year. The sales of new energy vehicles will continue to grow rapidly, and the demand for lithium is still very strong.
Qu Yinfei believes that the price of lithium carbonate will remain high, and the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" and the end-of-year rush-loading period will both cause demand to rise.
The overall increase in supply is limited and cannot match the rapidly rising demand.
The quotation and transaction prices in the spot market are gradually increasing, and the high price is above 500,000 yuan / ton.
What about downstream enterprises?
The rising price of lithium carbonate is changing the industrial structure of new energy vehicles and power batteries, and mastering upstream lithium resources has almost become an industry consensus.
The upstream of the lithium battery industry chain is raw materials and lithium battery equipment, the midstream is lithium battery manufacturing, and the downstream is lithium battery applications.
The new high price of lithium battery materials makes the industrial development show two extremes: profits are concentrated upstream, and pressure is transmitted downstream.
This status quo once made companies in different industries "full of complaints": car companies complained that the profits were made by battery companies; and battery companies said that they were under high cost pressure and were also working for the upstream.
Judging from the data in the 2022 semi-annual report, the net profits of listed companies represented by Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium have more than doubled; while the gross profit margins of power battery companies such as Ningde Times and Guoxuan Hi-Tech have fallen sharply. Among them, Ningde Times The operating cost of the power battery system has increased by 186.78% year-on-year; car companies, as the most downstream, have the worst life, and car companies such as Celis and ST Zotye are in a state of loss.
A relevant person from BAIC Blue Valley told the "Securities Daily" reporter that the rise in raw material prices will greatly affect new energy vehicles. At the same time, the price of raw materials upstream of power batteries has skyrocketed, which has also become a "stumbling block" to prevent the rapid development of new energy vehicles.
From the interview of the "Securities Daily" reporter, we can see that this development will continue in a certain period of time.
"In the second half of the year, the terminal industry maintained a high level of popularity, and the progress of lithium iron phosphate production was progressing in an orderly manner, which promoted the increase in demand for lithium carbonate products." Han Minhua, an analyst at Zhuochuang Information, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that new and old players actively entered the market to seek lithium carbonate stability. Suppliers, locking the quantity in advance is one of the main negotiation methods in the industry.
This phenomenon directly leads to the fact that the current social inventory is mainly concentrated in middlemen and downstream head factories, lithium carbonate suppliers have almost no spot inventory, and the price of new orders is firm.
"In the short term, the price of lithium carbonate is under pressure. On the one hand, supported by better demand, the supply side's spot inventory level is not high, and sales are smooth; on the other hand, the price of lithium carbonate has risen this wave, and the price of downstream material products has not There is no obvious follow-up, and there is a block in the transmission of lithium carbonate prices, which will limit the price rise of subsequent products. On the whole, the short-term domestic lithium carbonate prices are expected to maintain a narrow range." Han Minhua told reporters.
On the whole, the price fluctuation of lithium battery materials affects the whole body in terms of the industrial chain.
The latest research report of Ping An Securities believes that the supply of upstream lithium resources is the key to determining the future trend of lithium prices.
The mismatch between upstream and downstream production cycles is the fundamental reason why it is difficult for supply to respond quickly under the outbreak of lithium demand. Under the pattern of shortage, the resource side is still an important variable for the future trend of lithium prices.
From the current point of view, the supply and demand gap superimposes the cost support to move upward, and lithium prices still have some room for upward movement.
The global lithium resources will remain tight until 2024. Under the resource bottleneck, the profits of the industrial chain will gradually increase. The underwriting model may further amplify the contradiction between supply and demand. It is expected that the price of lithium will remain high.
In view of this, integrated development enterprises with high resource self-sufficiency rate or accelerating improvement are generally favored by the industry.
Dong Yang, chairman of the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, said a few days ago that in order to cope with the rise in raw materials, OEMs have entered the upstream and downstream of the battery industry chain. .
For example, in order to lock upstream resources and accelerate the integration of upstream and downstream, CATL has continuously deployed lithium carbonate projects in Yichun, Jiangxi.
On September 7, Longpan Technology announced that Tangshan Xinfeng Lithium Industry and Yichun Times, a subsidiary of Ningde Times, plan to cooperate on a lithium carbonate project with an annual output of 30,000 tons. This is not the first time that Ningde Times has entered the upstream.
In September last year, CATL announced that it would invest more than 50 billion yuan in Yichun to build a lithium battery base and a corresponding production base for lithium carbonate and other materials.
According to public information, Yichun, Jiangxi has the world's largest lepidolite mine, with 2.6 million tons of available lithium oxide reserves, accounting for 37.6% of the country's total. It is known as the "Lithium Capital of Asia".
Previously, leading companies such as Ganfeng Lithium Industry have already made arrangements here.
"From the perspective of the current industry development, it is recommended that upstream lithium salt manufacturers fully integrate global resources, accelerate the research and development process of technologies such as salt lake and mica lithium extraction, and improve the resilience and risk resistance of their own lithium resource supply chain." CCID Consulting New Materials Industry Zhao Dangui, an analyst at the research center, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that downstream battery manufacturers should strengthen technology research and development, improve the key performance indicators of battery products, and at the same time strengthen the life cycle traceability management of lithium batteries, and promote upstream and downstream cooperation in the industry chain to build recycling channels and plastics. Lithium-electricity integrated value chain; Lithium-related enterprises should also accelerate the integrated layout of the industrial chain, which can maintain a relatively stable profit level while ensuring the supply of key resources, and reduce the risks and pressures caused by the substantial expansion of the market.
"The profit of the lithium battery industry chain is concentrated in the upstream lithium mine. In terms of cathode materials in the production process, although the current theoretical profit value is profitable, due to the limited acceptance of price increases by downstream battery factories, the actual transaction is still under pressure, and there is profit space for production enterprises. Limited. Enterprises should plan the layout reasonably according to their actual situation, and avoid blind entry. They should strengthen the planning and layout of the resource side and establish a good cooperative relationship with upstream and downstream.” Qu Yinfei further said.
How to break through battery recycling?
As the price of lithium carbonate continues to rise, the power battery recycling industry has also become popular, and even once caused the phenomenon of "price upside down".
Tianfeng Securities said that power battery recycling is a post-cycle industry of lithium batteries, and the demand is expected to increase year by year due to the prosperity of the industry chain. (Compound annual growth rate) is as high as 48.9%, and it is expected to show exponential growth in the future.
From a long-term perspective, the industry is currently at the starting point of a long economic cycle.
Under the expectation of high economic development, many listed companies have made arrangements in the field of power battery recycling.
"The company mainly deploys power battery recycling business through self-built recycling and disposal capacity, acquisition of existing recycling enterprises, etc." Wang Xuelei, power battery analyst of Shanghai Ganglian New Energy Division, told the "Securities Daily" reporter.
In 2015, CATL entered the field of power battery recycling through the acquisition of Guangdong Bangpu.
In 2018, CATL and SAIC signed a memorandum of understanding on strategic cooperation. The two parties plan to further deepen cooperation and discuss jointly promoting the recycling and reuse of power batteries for new energy vehicles.
In addition, BYD, Huayou Cobalt, Ganfeng Lithium and other listed companies have begun to deploy the power battery recycling industry.
Changchang Logistics also set up a new energy business department in February this year. This department takes automobile logistics as a starting point and explores to provide comprehensive services such as logistics, warehousing, charging and replacing, and power battery recycling for customers in the upstream and downstream industry chain of new energy vehicles.
Gu Ning, deputy general manager of the new energy business department of Changchang Logistics, said in an interview with a reporter from "Securities Daily": "For many years, Changji Logistics has been doing service work around automobiles and has accumulated many resources from OEMs. In addition, the company is still in 4S The store has a strong advantage, and the 4S store will be an important power battery recycling channel in the future. Although the traditional 4S store is still serving fuel vehicles, it will gradually turn to the field of new energy vehicles in the future.”
According to Tianfeng Securities, there are three mainstream business models in the current power battery recycling market: a model with battery manufacturers as the main body of recycling; a model with vehicle manufacturers as the main body of recycling and a model with third parties as the main body of recycling.
Favored by the market and favorable policies, the power battery recycling industry is booming. Since the beginning of this year, the social financing amount of battery recycling enterprises has increased significantly.
However, the problems arising from the rapid development of the industry cannot be ignored. Too many "small workshops" is one of the important characteristics of the current industry development.
Gu Ning told reporters that there are currently more than 30,000 power battery recycling companies in the country, but there are currently only 47 companies on the industry whitelist, but this number is increasing year by year.
There are too many "small workshops" in the industry, and the degree of industry standardization needs to be improved urgently.
"At present, the country has not monitored the whole life cycle of power batteries, and many new energy vehicle owners are only trying to sell their old cars at a high price, and they have not dealt with vehicles through formal channels." Jiangxi New Energy Technology Vocational College New Energy Vehicle Technology Research Institute Dean Zhang Xiang told the "Securities Daily" reporter.
In addition, the "price inversion" caused by the "stocking" of individual traders is another feature of the development of the industry.
Due to the above reasons, many power battery recycling companies have to face the problem of difficulty in making profits.
"At present, the battery recycling business of most companies has not yet achieved profitability. In many leading companies in the industry, battery recycling is not the main source of revenue, but only an auxiliary business. However, there is a large market space for power battery recycling in the future. ." Zhang Xiang said.
In order to avoid the phenomenon of bad money driving out good money, Qi Haishen, president of Beijing Teyi Sunshine New Energy, said in an interview with the "Securities Daily" reporter: "The industry needs to quickly strengthen the cultivation of professional, standardized and large-scale talents for retired batteries. and system construction, fine battery recycling and efficient treatment also test the company's understanding and depth of the battery industry. In general, power battery recycling is a labor-intensive, technology-intensive and capital-intensive special industry. The efficient recovery of rare metals in it plays a vital role in the sustainable development of the battery industry and balancing the market price of new products, especially as the ternary battery installation and decommissioning period is approaching, the industrialization and scale of the battery recycling and reuse market There is an urgent need to establish and improve business models.”
With the rising prices of lithium salt products represented by lithium carbonate and the unbalanced development of the industrial chain, it can be described as killing two birds with one stone.
Talking about the development pattern of the power battery recycling industry in the future, Wang Xuelei said that in the field of cascade utilization, companies with strong business model innovation capabilities are more likely to win the competition.
However, in the field of resource regeneration, smelting and processing enterprises with capital advantages are more likely to win, and the strong will always be strong.
In addition, there is still a lot of room for improvement in the recovery rate of lithium, and it is easier for companies with leading technologies to gain advantages.
"Battery manufacturers and automobile manufacturers have strong advantages in waste sources when they enter the recycling industry." Cheng Ling believes that battery factories and car factories with comprehensive utilization capabilities are expected to further improve their integrated layout and optimize production costs; And the continuous improvement of the recycling network, the existing third-party recycling companies have deepened cooperation with battery factories and car factories to ensure their own recycling waste sources, and rely on the advantages of production capacity, customers, technology and other advantages to establish a leading position.