On Tuesday, September 13, world oil prices show mixed dynamics.
In the middle of the day, the cost of raw materials of the benchmark Brent brand on the ICE exchange in London rose by 1.6% to $95.49 per barrel, while American WTI rose in price by 1.7% to $88.97 per barrel.
However, in the evening the values fell to $93 and $87 per barrel, respectively.
The observed fluctuations in commodity prices are largely due to the growing uncertainty in the global oil market, analysts say.
Investors are concerned about a possible reduction in the supply of raw materials from Russia against the backdrop of Western sanctions.
Also, players are concerned about the decision of OPEC + to cut production by 100 thousand barrels per day in October and the slowdown due to lockdowns in the economy of China, the largest consumer of hydrocarbons.
“A decrease in Russian oil exports may stimulate price growth, while the actions of OPEC + and the stagnation of demand in China, on the contrary, risk turning into a decrease in quotations.
Therefore, we can expect that in the near future the cost of oil will continue to fluctuate in the range of $ 80-100 per barrel, depending on the information that appears, ”Fyodor Sidorov, founder of the School of Practical Investment, told RT.
In addition, market participants are now closely watching the weekly data on stocks of raw materials in the US, the specialist added.
According to him, a decrease in this indicator may contribute to higher prices in the long term.
According to the US Department of Energy, for the week from September 2 to September 9, the volume of strategic oil reserves in the United States decreased by 8.4 million barrels - to 434.1 million. The value was the lowest since October 1984.
Oil rigs in a field in California
© George Rose
Backup power
Recall that back in early March, the United States introduced a complete ban on the import of energy resources from Russia.
As the White House argued at the time, the United States could afford to take such a step thanks to the country's strong energy infrastructure.
However, some time later, American consumers were faced with a rush increase in fuel prices.
According to the US Department of Energy, if at the end of winter a gallon of gasoline at gas stations in the United States cost an average of $3.6 (about 57 rubles per liter at the current exchange rate), then in March the figure reached $4.3 (68 rubles per liter), and in mid-June, the value exceeded $5 (79 rubles per liter).
To stabilize the situation with prices, the head of the White House, Joe Biden, at the end of March ordered the release of 1 million barrels of oil per day from the country's strategic reserves from May until the end of October.
Thus, it is planned to withdraw about 180 million barrels from the reserves.
“This is the largest release of resources from the national reserve in our history.
As a result, historical volumes will be provided for a historically long period of six months, ”Biden said.
AP
© Evan Vucci
The strategic reserve was created in the United States after the oil crisis of the 1970s in case of new interruptions in the supply of raw materials.
The use of these reserves is traditionally regulated by relevant legislative acts, Igor Galaktionov, an expert on the BCS World of Investments stock market, told RT.
“Purchases and sales of oil from the strategic reserve must be agreed upon in the course of a special administrative procedure.
There are also commercial oil reserves in the country, but these are the reserves of enterprises that are formed and consumed in the course of normal commercial activities,” the analyst explained.
According to Biden's initiative, by November the volume of US strategic oil reserves may drop to 370 million barrels.
At the same time, experts do not exclude that after that Washington will be forced to continue taking raw materials from its reserves.
“The program can be extended for the period of the active phase of the heating season, until February 2023.
This is due to the fact that high prices for gas and coal increase the demand for petroleum products as an alternative fuel for generating energy for space heating,” explained Sergei Pigarev, Senior Analyst at Freedom Finance Global.
Against the backdrop of the release of strategic oil reserves, the cost of fuel at filling stations in the United States has almost returned to pre-crisis levels.
According to the American Automobile Association, today the price of one gallon of gasoline on average in the country has dropped to $3.7 (about 59 rubles per liter), although depending on the state, the figure varies from $3.1 to $5.4 (49-86 rubles). per litre).
At the same time, the rapid depletion of strategic stocks increases the risk of future physical supply disruptions.
This, in turn, runs the risk of turning into a new round of price growth, Igor Galaktionov is sure.
“At some point, the reserves may run out and there will be nothing to compensate for the imbalance.
In addition, in the future, reserves will need to be restored.
Accordingly, the more that are sold now, the longer in the future, purchases of oil for strategic reserves will support increased demand for oil,” he explained.
dangerous limit
To avoid another wave of rising fuel prices, the United States, along with European countries and other G7 partners, thought about limiting the cost of Russian oil.
The initiative is designed to reduce Moscow's income from the sale of energy resources and may become an alternative to a complete ban on the import of hydrocarbons from the Russian Federation.
As part of the plan under discussion, it is proposed to ban insurance and financing of ships that are engaged in the transportation of raw materials from the Russian Federation at a price above a certain limit.
However, analysts doubt the prospects for the implementation of this proposal.
“The G7 countries want to limit Russia's revenues, but at the same time they do not want to withdraw Russian oil from world trade, because in this case oil prices will become too high.
The price cap mechanism could be a solution, but in its current form, the whole initiative looks like populism,” explained Igor Galaktionov.
Moreover, Russia does not intend to trade according to the rules imposed on it and sell raw materials at a loss, Vladimir Putin said earlier.
In this regard, according to him, the plans of the West have no prospects and can only result in an increase in oil prices.
“Absolutely stupid decision.
If someone tries to implement it, it will not lead to anything good for those who make this decision... We will not supply anything if it is contrary to our interests, in this case, economic ones.
We will not supply gas, nor oil, nor coal, nor fuel oil - we will not supply anything ... Those who impose something on us are not in the position today to dictate their will to us.
Let them come to their senses,” Putin warned.
© Roscongress Photobank / Vyacheslav Viktorov
A similar position was expressed in early September by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.
According to him, the G7 proposal is “complete absurdity” and so far does not find support either among other oil producers or among large consumers represented by India and China.
“This is interference in the market mechanisms of such an important industry as the oil industry, which is the most important in terms of ensuring the energy security of the whole world, such attempts will only lead to destabilization of the oil industry ... This will completely destroy the market,” Novak emphasized.
As Deputy Minister of Finance of Russia Alexei Moiseev told RT, it was Western restrictions on the supply of Russian oil that provoked a rush increase in world prices.
At the same time, any attempts to limit the cost of raw materials from the Russian Federation can only aggravate the current difficult situation, the deputy head of the Ministry of Finance is sure.
“This is the market.
The principles of its work were described more than 200 years ago in their writings by Adam Smith and David Ricardo.
You could go and read them.
However, we are told about the price ceiling.
It reminds me more of the state plan in the USSR, when the Soviet leadership was engaged in price regulation, which ultimately led to the disappearance of goods from the shelves.
A similar situation could happen now," Moiseev concluded.