• The return to social life has everything explosive, in a particularly tense economic climate for the population.

  • The last straw – or rather the highly flammable spark – could be the reform of unemployment insurance, which the government still wants to toughen.

  • Will the strengthening of the conditions of access to contributions set fire to the powder?

Far from the classrooms, the return to school - social - has everything of a powder keg: a population worn down by years of pandemic, the reform of unemployment insurance and that of pensions, galloping inflation which undermines purchasing power and French morale, and possible energy restrictions to top it off.

In such an explosive context, the coming weeks could be the scene of major political and social protests.

And as our late Johnny sang, "all it takes is a spark" to escalate the situation.

The reform of unemployment insurance, therefore, has everything of a candidate to set fire to the powder.

The executive wishes to modulate the aid according to the situation of the labor market: in other words, in this period of low unemployment, to harden the conditions.

An initiative, launched last week in the Council of Ministers, which has everything to displease: the main unions (CFDT, CGT, FO, CFTC, CFE-CGC, FSU, Solidaires and Unsa), as well as five student and high school students, openly criticized last Friday in a press release the reform project with rare unanimity.

While the ministers in charge of the file presented the reform on Monday to the social partners, should we fear that the social pot will overflow?

A concerning reform, really?

Answer all in euphemism of Bruno Cautrès, researcher at Sciences-Po and specialist in French political life: “The moment is not optimal for such a reform, with already a lot of social anxiety.

Life is difficult with inflation.

In addition, the government must not give the impression of a public policy that is only about tightening the screws”.

Furthermore, will the French feel concerned by this reform, which currently only affects 7.4% of the active population?

For Stéphane Rozès, political scientist and president of CAP (Conseils, analyzes et perspectives), it is possible that the population fears its electricity bill too much to worry about job seekers: "The concerns of the French are almost exclusively directed towards the purchasing power.

If they do not consider unemployment to be part of this problem, they may show no interest in reform”.

Surfing on the idea of ​​assistantship

Another element that suggests that the social explosion will not take place: “in times of economic difficulty, even among workers, solidarity with the unemployed tends to decline, notes Stéphane Rozès.

The government is surfing on this idea of ​​welfare to be banned, very widespread among the working classes.

Of course, unemployment is not welfare, it is a social contribution, but the executive plays on this confusion.

Confirmation from Benjamin Morel, Doctor of Political Science at the ENS: "This is not the most dangerous reform for the government, because several studies show that it would not be so unpopular as that".

An Elabe poll conducted in early August indicated that 60% of French people say they are "in favor" of the proposed changes.

The pension reform, otherwise more concerning for a good part of the population and much more unpopular, would then be a more credible spark.

And of course, "if the French cannot finish their end of the month, there will undoubtedly be a real dispute", continues the doctor,

A government that hits the sidelines

Everything will therefore depend on the perception of the French of the unemployment insurance reform, and whether they include it in the question of purchasing power.

“This remains a severe measure for part of the population, in a context of restrictions”, recalls Bruno Cautrès.

Same observation with Stéphane Rozès: “The French can consider that it remains a reform which impoverishes them even more.

“The political scientist adds that despite the current debates around the idea of ​​assistantship, “the French are also very attached to equality and living conditions, even the most precarious”.

Especially as Bruno Cautrès reminds us, the method can leave something to be desired: the ministers consulted the social partners on Monday without giving them the possibility of changing anything: "The times require support, pedagogy , to go gradually.

Especially not to give the feeling of an obstinate and above-ground policy”.

Still in the way of doing things, "faced with the problems at the end of the month, the French have difficulty understanding the government's obstinacy in showing that it is carrying out major structural reforms", recalls Stéphane Rozès.

Benjamin Morel summarizes: “In such a tense context, any social spark can degenerate.

All it takes is a catalyst.

Unemployment reform can be one, even if it is less obvious than the budget, pensions or purchasing power”.

And the spark does not always come from where it is expected.

Economy

Reform of unemployment insurance: The unions in unison denounce an "unfair" and "ineffective" measure

Company

Unemployment insurance: What the new reform could change for job seekers

  • Economy

  • Unemployment insurance

  • Unemployment

  • Unemployed

  • Union

  • Pension reform