Iranian nuclear: back to the blocking box, in the negotiations
The Iran nuclear deal will be on the agenda of the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) this week.
AFP - ALEX HALADA
Text by: Nicolas Falez Follow
4 mins
In recent weeks, reviving the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA) seemed within reach.
Now, the prospect is moving away, according to several sources.
The file is discussed this week in Vienna, where the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is meeting.
The latter believes that it cannot guarantee that Iran's nuclear program is "
exclusively peaceful
".
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It was a joint statement from Paris, Berlin and London that buried the speculation of recent weeks about the revival of the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal: "
Unfortunately, Iran has chosen not to take advantage of this decisive diplomatic opportunity.
Instead, it has continued to expand its nuclear program far beyond any plausible civilian justification.
»
Since last year, intense negotiations have taken place in Vienna with a double objective:
to bring the United States back into the agreement
(Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action,
JCPOA
) that Donald Trump had chosen to leave in 2018 and to restore the parameters of the compromise: guarantee of the civilian character of Iran's nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of sanctions.
A challenge, insofar as Tehran responded to Donald Trump's decision by accelerating its nuclear work, crossing red line after red line.
"
In March, we had a viable text
", notes a French diplomatic source familiar with this negotiation (direct when Iran discusses with China, Russia, France, Germany and the United Kingdom, indirect when Tehran negotiates with the United States).
During the summer, the last sessions were devoted to a compromise document drawn up by the European Union.
Tehran's response came on September 1, "
a step backwards
", according to the head of American diplomacy, Anthony Blinken.
“
A blocking situation, a critical situation
”, is alarmed by a French diplomatic source.
► Listen again: Raphaël Grossi, guest of RFI
Mysterious traces of uranium
The main sticking point
appears in the report
that the International Atomic Energy Agency published last week and in which
it deplores its inability to guarantee that Iran's nuclear program is "
exclusively peaceful
"
.
The IAEA remains unanswered about three sites that Iran has not declared in its nuclear program, but near which mysterious traces of unnatural uranium have been found.
To relaunch the 2015 nuclear agreement, Tehran is asking for the closure of these files monitored by the IAEA.
Unthinkable for the agency, which calls on the Islamic Republic to comply with its “
legal obligations
”.
Blocking is therefore on the menu of the Board of Governors of the IAEA, meeting this week in the Austrian capital.
While the Iranians denounce an "
unfounded
" report and a "
politicization
" of the agency which, according to Tehran,
would give in to "
pressure from Israel
"
, many states have no intention of turning a blind eye to the concerns expressed by Rafael Grossi, the director of the IAEA.
We need "
the widest possible support
" for the IAEA and its director, believes a French diplomat in charge of the file.
American and Israeli election deadlines
And then ?
The Iranian nuclear issue will be discussed this month at the UN General Assembly in New York.
But the deadlock is expected to last at least until the US midterm elections on November 8.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz
, receiving Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid, said this week that a breakthrough could not take place “
for a long time
”.
In Berlin, the head of the Israeli government pleaded for a "
credible threat
" to put pressure on Iran.
According to our information, the Jewish state tirelessly asks its allies to build a military coalition in order to establish a balance of power against Tehran.
A request which meets little echo for the moment on the Western side.
A “threshold state”?
Against a background of deadlock, will Iran continue its nuclear progress, when it already has a stock of enriched uranium 19 times greater than the limit authorized by the 2015 nuclear agreement?
Enough to feed the scenario of a preventive military action by Israel, another country in the electoral campaign since legislative elections will take place there on November 1st.
"
If Iran continues to test us, it will discover the long arm and the capabilities of Israel
", recently launched Prime Minister Yair Lapid, who had carefully chosen the setting for his statement, delivered in front of an F-35 plane of the Israeli army.
There remains a question that hovers over the whole dossier: what does Iran really want?
The atomic bomb or becoming a "threshold" state, that is, possessing enough material, components and skills to assemble a nuclear weapon if it decided to do so?
Ultra-sensitive question insofar as there is no absolute definition of this famous "threshold".
“
The Israelis cannot accept a nuclear Iran,
notes a Western diplomat who knows the Jewish state well,
but can they accept an Iran on the threshold?
»
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