China News Service, September 9 (Xie Yiguan, a reporter from China News and Finance) According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 9th, in August, the national consumer price (CPI) rose by 2.5% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.

The year-on-year increase in the CPI in August fell slightly

　　Judging from the trend chart of CPI rise and fall, the year-on-year increase of CPI has expanded for two consecutive months. Why did the year-on-year increase of CPI fall back in August?

CPI rise and fall chart.

from the National Bureau of Statistics

　　The specific data shows that food prices rose by 6.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the CPI increase of about 1.09 percentage points; non-food prices increased by 1.7%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the CPI increase of about 1.38 percentage points .

　　According to Dong Lijuan, senior statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, among food, pork prices rose by 22.4% year-on-year, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from the previous month, mainly due to the low base in the same period last year; driven by the rise in pork prices, chicken and duck meat Prices went up by 6.6% and 12.7% respectively, and the increase was larger than the previous month; the prices of fresh fruit and fresh vegetables went up by 16.3% and 6.0% respectively, and the increase was down from the previous month; the prices of edible vegetable oil and grain went up by 7.9% and 3.3% respectively .

　　"According to calculations, among the 2.5% year-on-year CPI increase in August, the impact of last year's price changes was about 0.8 percentage points, and the impact of new price increases was about 1.7 percentage points. The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose 0.8% year-on-year. , the increase is the same as last month." Dong Lijuan said.

Data map: The operation of a Wanjia Happy Farm store at Daxi Road, Shenhe District, Shenyang, around 7:30 in the morning.

Photo courtesy of Shenyang Municipal Bureau of Commerce

The price of fresh vegetables and eggs rose month-on-month, and the price of pork "flattened"

　　From a month-on-month perspective, the CPI has changed from an increase of 0.5% in the previous month to a decrease of 0.1%.

Among them, food prices rose by 0.5%, a decrease of 2.5 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the CPI increase of about 0.10 percentage points.

　　Dong Lijuan mentioned that in food, the production of live pigs has gradually returned to normal, coupled with the seasonal weakening of consumer demand, pork prices rose by 0.4%, a decrease of 25.2 percentage points from the previous month.

　　In a community supermarket in Xicheng District, Beijing, the price tag shows that the price of pork front and rear tip is 19.8 yuan per pound, and pork belly is 23.8 yuan per pound. According to the reporter's understanding, such prices have been going on for more than a month.

　　In terms of other food prices, "the market volume of vegetables in the north increased in August, but the high temperature and dry weather in the south affected the production and supply of vegetables in the mid-to-late half of the year. The price of fresh vegetables in the country first fell and then rose, with an average monthly increase of 2.0% over the previous month, which was lower than the same period in history. The average level; the prices of eggs and fresh fruits all changed seasonally, up 3.5% and down 1.0% respectively." Dong Lijuan said.

　　In a vegetable market in Xicheng District, the reporter noticed that the price of eggs in bulk has risen to 6.8 yuan per pound.

　　Liu Tong, head of Beijing Xinfadi's statistics department, said the recent rise in egg prices was mainly due to the holiday effect, in response to the increase in the opening of schools and the Mid-Autumn Festival.

The pork section in a large supermarket in Fengtai District, Beijing.

Photo by Xie Yiguan, a reporter from China-Singapore Finance and Economics

CPI is expected to remain generally stable

　　As an important factor affecting changes in food prices, due to the seasons and the strengthening of market regulation by relevant departments, pork prices declined slightly for many weeks from the end of July to mid-August.

But since late August, pork prices have been "rising" again.

　　According to the monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, from August 29 to September 4, 2022, the average purchase price of live pigs for designated slaughtering enterprises of live pigs above designated size in the country was 23.40 yuan/kg, a month-on-month increase of 3.2% and a year-on-year increase of 51.7%.

The average ex-factory price of white strips was 29.96 yuan/kg, up 3.1% month-on-month and 45.9% year-on-year.

　　Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission and relevant departments released the first batch of central frozen pork reserves this year, and instructed local governments to increase the release of pork reserves in the near future.

　　"Based on the current point of view, the relative magnitude of the change in the marginal supply and the marginal change in demand will affect the trend and rhythm of pig prices in the second half of the year." said Chen Xueli, an analyst at Kaiyuan Securities.

　　Fu Linghui, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the National Economic Comprehensive Statistics Department, recently said that from the perspective of the next stage, although there is a certain upward pressure, there are still many favorable conditions for prices to remain generally stable. First, the domestic market supply The capacity is generally sufficient; the second is that pork prices do not have the conditions for a sharp rise; the third is that the international imported factors are expected to decrease.

　　"From the price data, the current domestic price rises moderately, which also reflects that the foundation for economic recovery is not stable and the demand is insufficient. It is necessary to continue to do a good job of macro-control to stabilize the economic market." Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, believes that on the one hand, continue to Ensure the supply and price of important commodities, on the other hand, accelerate the implementation of investment projects to form a physical workload, and promote consumption through investment.

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