China-Singapore Jingwei, September 9 (Wang Yongle) This morning (September 9), the National Bureau of Statistics will announce the consumer price index (CPI) for August.
A number of institutions predict that the CPI in August rose by 2.8% year-on-year, hitting a new high since April 2020.
CPI growth may hit a new high in more than two years
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the year-on-year increase in CPI continued to expand in July, remaining flat at a two-year high.
For the upcoming August CPI data, Wind data shows that as of September 8, the average forecast of 17 institutions for the year-on-year CPI increase in August was 2.8%.
Among them, the predicted value of 5 companies is above 2.8%, the highest predicted value is 3% given by Huatai Securities, and the lowest is 2.6% given by 4 institutions including Huachuang Securities.
If calculated according to the average forecast by institutions, the year-on-year CPI increase will hit a new high after April 2020.
Judging from institutional forecasts, pork prices have stabilized month-on-month, vegetable prices have slowed down, and oil prices have continued to fall. The year-on-year increase in CPI in August may end the rapid upward trend in the previous two months.
Data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs showed that pork prices fluctuated within a narrow range in August, while vegetable prices slowed down significantly.
As of the week of September 1, the average weekly prices of pork and 19 kinds of vegetables in the wholesale market were 29.53 yuan/kg and 4.56 yuan/kg, down 0.37% and up 8.83% from the average prices for the week ended July 28, respectively.
Although vegetable prices have risen, they have narrowed significantly from the 24.70% increase in the four weeks ended July 28.
In terms of oil prices, the National Development and Reform Commission lowered the price of refined oil twice in August, and the prices of gasoline and diesel were reduced by a total of 335 yuan and 325 yuan per ton.
China Merchants Macro Zhang Jingjing’s team expects the CPI to rise by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year in August.
The team said that the increase in pig prices slowed down in August; although vegetable prices were stronger than seasonal, they fell year-on-year under the high base in the same period last year.
In terms of non-food products, the decline in oil prices has slowed down, and the rebound of the epidemic has not significantly affected offline activities in August. The non-food CPI may rebound slightly under a low base.
The Zheshang Securities report predicts that the CPI in August rose 0.3% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year.
The report pointed out that in response to the rapid rise in pig prices in July, the National Development and Reform Commission held consecutive meetings, interviewed large pig companies, and proposed that they should not hoard and drive up prices.
The extreme weather of high temperature and drought brings inconvenience to the production, transportation and sales of vegetables, especially the growth of leafy vegetables, and the high temperature weather will aggravate the loss in the transportation of fresh vegetables. Since the second week of August, the price of fresh vegetables has risen significantly.
The Zhang Yu team of Huachuang Macro gave the data of "falling back". It is expected that the CPI in August will increase by zero month-on-month and increase by about 2.6% year-on-year.
The team analyzed that the upward slope of core inflation continued to be under pressure, and domestic refined oil prices fell, both of which dragged down the upward speed of CPI.
How will CPI go in the future?
According to information from the National Development and Reform Commission, the government pork reserves have been released in batches since September. The first batch of central frozen pork reserves this year was released on September 8, and it has guided local governments to increase the release of pork reserves in the near future.
In this regard, Wanhe Securities analyzed that this reflects the country's policy orientation to stabilize prices. It is expected that after the CPI exceeded 3% in September, the year-on-year increase in the CPI in the fourth quarter can still be controlled below 3%.
The macro report of Guosheng Securities pointed out that the high temperature and drought in September may continue, or slightly push up the upward pressure on CPI, but the impact is limited.
On the whole, the CPI may fluctuate upwards year-on-year, and the high point may exceed 3.0%, or even touch 3.5%.
Yang Yinkai, deputy secretary-general of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at a regular briefing of the State Council Information Office on August 26 that the overall judgment is that the expected CPI control target of about 3% this year is achievable.
But at the same time, it should be noted that, affected by factors such as imported inflation pressure and seasonal increase in pork prices, combined with the low base effect of the same period last year, the domestic price level from the second months of this year to the first quarter of next year may be slightly higher than the previous months. .
It is worth mentioning that the regular meeting of the National Assembly held on August 18 proposed that from September this year to March next year, the price subsidy linkage mechanism will be adjusted in stages, and the new additions of people who receive unemployment benefits and marginal people living with minimum living allowances will be included in the guarantee. The year-on-year growth rate of the CPI in the start-up conditions dropped from 3.5% to 3.0%.
Wan Jinsong, director of the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, explained at the briefing that the monthly year-on-year CPI growth rate in the start-up conditions will be reduced from 3.5% to 3.0% in stages, mainly because of the impact of the epidemic, disasters, etc., the income of the poor will increase. Faced with more difficulties, the feeling of rising prices may be more obvious.
Since the current price temporary subsidy is issued on a monthly basis, if the activation conditions remain unchanged, some regions, especially the western region, may not be able to activate the mechanism to issue price subsidies because the price increase is slightly lower.
According to the reduced start-up conditions, it is expected that the number of months and regions where the price subsidy linkage mechanism is activated will increase significantly, which means that more people in difficulties in the region will be able to receive price subsidies and their basic lives will be better guaranteed.
(Sino-Singapore Jingwei APP)
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