China News Service, September 9th (Xie Yiguan, a reporter from China News and Finance) On September 9th, the National Bureau of Statistics will announce the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August. Under the influence of factors such as rising prices of fresh vegetables and eggs, many institutions It is expected that the year-on-year increase in CPI in August may expand slightly.
The year-on-year increase of CPI in August may continue to hit a new high in the year
In July, affected by the increase in the price of pork, fresh vegetables and other food and seasonal factors, the CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month and a new high for the year.
What will happen to the year-on-year CPI in August?
CPI rise and fall chart.
Figure from the National Bureau of Statistics
According to the monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in August, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 29.11 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous month and up 36% year-on-year; the average wholesale price of vegetables was 4.11 yuan/kg, up 3.7% from the previous month and up 8.5% from the same period last year. ; The average wholesale price of eggs was 10.67 yuan/kg, an increase of 7.2% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 2.1%.
"The high-frequency data in August showed that the prices of fresh vegetables and eggs rose month-on-month, which had a certain upward pulling effect on the CPI food items." CITIC Securities believes that due to the gradual ease of pork farmers' reluctance to sell in the early stage, pork in August The price was basically the same as last month, and there was no significant upward movement.
"Considering the negative impact of the multi-point spread of the epidemic in August on the repair of service consumption, and the drag of the decline in crude oil prices on the price of transportation and communication, the CPI of non-food items may fall to a certain extent. It rose moderately to a level of around 2.9%," CITIC Securities said.
However, Huachuang Securities believes that the tightening of the epidemic prevention and control situation and the downward pressure on the economy continue to suppress the upward slope of core inflation, and the adjustment of international oil prices has led to a significant decline in domestic refined oil prices, both of which have dragged down the upward speed of CPI.
The CPI in August is expected to have zero month-on-month growth and a slight drop to around 2.6% year-on-year.
According to the statistics of Flush iFinD, the average forecast of 17 institutions for the year-on-year increase of CPI in August was 2.79%.
If the above-mentioned average forecast values are fulfilled, the year-on-year increase in CPI in August will continue to expand, hitting a new high for the year.
Data map: Chongming, Shanghai, residents buy pork at the Miaozhen market.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Tian Yuhao
CPI is expected to remain at a reasonable level
A reporter from Zhongxin Finance reviewed the data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and found that due to seasonal factors and the strengthening of market regulation by relevant departments, pork prices declined slightly for many weeks from the end of July to mid-August.
But since late August, pork prices have been "rising" again.
According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, from August 29 to September 4, 2022, the average purchase price of live pigs in designated slaughtering enterprises of live pigs above designated size was 23.40 yuan/kg, an increase of 3.2% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 51.7%.
The average ex-factory price of white strips was 29.96 yuan/kg, up 3.1% month-on-month and 45.9% year-on-year.
"The market was generally worried about whether the upward drive of lard resonance on the CPI would lead to a relatively high reading." Minsheng Securities said that according to our understanding of the CPI weight setting, the impact of this round of pig cycles on the CPI may not be as great as that. The market had expected.
In the second half of the year, the CPI is likely to rise year-on-year, but there is no need to worry too much about the upward rate of the CPI.
Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the National Economic Comprehensive Statistics Department, believes that from the perspective of the next stage, although there is a certain upward pressure, there are still many favorable conditions for maintaining the overall stability of prices. First, the supply capacity of the domestic market. Generally sufficient; second, pork prices do not meet the conditions for a sharp rise; third, international imported factors are expected to decrease.
"From the second half of the year, although affected by short-term factors, the consumer price increase in individual months may be higher, but from the perspective of the whole year, it is conditional for the consumer price to remain at a reasonable level." Fu Linghui pointed out.
(Finish)