Securities Times reporter Kang Yin
With the rising price of pigs, since June, the price of pigs has risen above the industry cost line, and pig companies are expected to reverse the overall loss trend in the third quarter.
Recently, leading pig enterprises such as Muyuan Stock (002714), Wen's Stock (300498) and New Hope (000876) have successively disclosed their sales data in August.
Although the price of pigs fell slightly month-on-month in August, the number of live pigs sold and sales revenue increased significantly month-on-month and year-on-year.
Both the number of live pigs sold and the revenue increased
Wen's Co., Ltd. announced on the evening of September 6 that 1.5041 million pork pigs were sold in August, with an income of 3.889 billion yuan. The average selling price of wool pigs was 21.89 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month change of 13.58%, 13.68%, and -0.77%, respectively. were 14.76%, 81.22%, and 53.72%.
In addition, in August, Wen's Co., Ltd. sold 96.5007 million broiler chickens, with an income of 3.319 billion yuan, and the average sales price of feather chickens was 18.01 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month change of 4.93%, 13.12%, and 9.95%, respectively. %, 52.5%.
The August live pig sales briefing disclosed by Muyuan Co., Ltd. shows that in August, Muyuan Co., Ltd. sold 4.887 million live pigs (including 303,000 piglets), an increase of 6.4% month-on-month and an increase of 89.9% year-on-year.
Sales revenue was 11.660 billion yuan, an increase of 11.14% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 175.4%.
Among them, a total of 540,000 live pigs were sold to Muyuan Meat Food Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary, and its subsidiaries.
In the first ten days of August 2022, the commodity pig price of Muyuan Co., Ltd. showed a fluctuating downward trend, and began to rise in the second half of the year.
In August, the average selling price of commercial pigs was 20.94 yuan/kg, down 1.83% from July and up 50.4% from the same period last year.
New Hope sold 942,800 live pigs in August, an increase of 0.05% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 20.92%; revenue was 2.193 billion yuan, an increase of 1.2% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 74.46%; the average sales price of commercial pigs was 20.96 yuan/kg, a month-on-month decrease of 0.62% , a year-on-year increase of 44.95%.
Lihua Co., Ltd. sold 57,800 hogs in August, with a sales income of 146 million yuan. The average selling price of hogs was 22 yuan/kg. The month-on-month changes were 76.98%, 69.77%, and -2.04%, and the year-on-year changes were 63.17% and 143.33%, respectively. %, 50.07%.
Lihua shares said that in August, the company's pork sales and sales revenue increased month-on-month; pork sales, average sales price, and sales revenue increased year-on-year, mainly because the company's commercial pigs continued to grow, and sales prices increased year-on-year.
From April to early July this year, the domestic live pig price rebounded obviously from the bottom.
The latest monitoring data from China Pig Network shows that the price of foreign ternary pork was 23.66 yuan/kg on September 6, which was close to the price high two months ago. At that time, the price of foreign ternary pork was 23.92 yuan/kg.
However, because the pig price fell to a trough before, the pig-grain ratio entered the first-level warning range for excessive decline for several consecutive weeks. Therefore, even if the pig price rebounded sharply, it could not reverse the collective loss of breeding enterprises in the first half of the year in a short period of time.
Demand expected to improve in the second half
Pig enterprises are quite optimistic about the demand for pork in the second half of the year.
Wen's Co., Ltd. recently stated in an institutional survey that according to historical experience, the demand in the second half of the year is generally better than that in the first half of the year. The main reasons include the cooler weather in the second half of the year, which is conducive to pork food consumption; the second half of the year has many traditional holidays, such as Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day and New Year's Day. The demand for stocking such as holidays increases and there is a demand for pickled wax in some areas in the second half of the year.
In addition, the current stage of the new crown pneumonia epidemic is in a state of sporadic distribution, and it has entered the stage of normalized prevention and control. The demand for catering and tourism has improved marginally, and seasonal demand rebound is a high-probability event.
Recently, Muyuan Co., Ltd. also said in an investigation that according to the current market price of live pigs and public data in the industry, the company expects that the price of pigs in the second half of the year will be better than that in the first half of the year.
It is expected that the company's pig breeding capacity will reach about 75 million by the end of this year.
In addition, the company has achieved results in reducing costs and increasing efficiency. Since the first quarter of this year, the company's pig breeding costs have continued to decline, and the cost in the past two months has been around 15.5 yuan/kg.
At this stage, the cost of feed accounts for about 60% of the company's breeding costs.
It is worth noting that with the rise in pig prices, the release of reserved pork has started again.
According to the official WeChat account of the National Development and Reform Commission on September 6, the National Development and Reform Commission will work with relevant departments to release the first batch of central frozen pork reserves this year on September 8, and guide local governments to increase the release of pork reserves in the near future.
At present, Guangxi, Sichuan, Jilin, Ningxia, Hunan and other places have started the release of local pork reserves, and other provinces are also stepping up preparations for the release of pork reserves.
Regarding the impact of the government's release of government pork reserves on pig prices, Wen's Co., Ltd. said in an institutional survey that according to previous years' experience, there are many traditional festivals such as Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day and New Year's Day in the second half of the year, and the market pork consumption demand is likely to show a seasonal rebound.
In order to ensure the pork market supply during the holidays, the National Development and Reform Commission plans to release government pork reserves in batches from September, and guide local governments to jointly release the reserves.
For market participants, the release of government pork reserves will play a more important role in guiding policies and emotions, which will help the market to restore rationality, rationally arrange production and operation, and maintain a normal rhythm of seedlings and slaughtering.
However, the limited size of the government's pork reserves actually has little impact on the short-term market supply.