Our reporter Meng Ke

　　On September 9, the National Bureau of Statistics will release the national CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Industrial Producer Price Index) data for August.

A number of experts interviewed by the "Securities Daily" reporter predicted that the year-on-year increase in CPI in August will end the rapid upward trend of the previous two months; the year-on-year increase in PPI will maintain a downward trend.

　　The price situation continues to remain basically stable

　　From the previous value, in July, the CPI rose 2.7% year-on-year, and the PPI rose 4.2% year-on-year.

　　"In terms of CPI, the upward trend of pork and vegetable prices in August has dropped significantly, gasoline and diesel prices have been continuously lowered, and the prices of other goods and services have not changed significantly. Therefore, the CPI in August is expected to remain at around 2.8% year-on-year, basically the same as the previous month. The rapid upward trend of the previous two months has ended." Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that considering the current overall supply and demand situation in the commodity and service market, the core CPI after deducting food and energy prices in August will be Continue to be at a low level of around 1.0%, which means that the overall price situation will continue to remain basically stable in the short term.

　　Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Market Department of China Everbright Bank, said in an interview with a reporter from Securities Daily that the scissors gap between the CPI and PPI is expected to further narrow in August, with the CPI rising moderately to around 2.9% year-on-year.

　　From the perspective of price trends, Zhou Maohua said that short-term extreme weather and rising prices of some upstream raw materials continue to disrupt domestic price trends, but domestic demand is in the recovery stage, the production capacity of live pigs has returned to normal, the grain reserves are sufficient for successive years of harvest, and the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices The measures continued to exert force, the industrial foundation was sound, and the monetary policy remained stable, etc., to ensure that prices were basically stable.

　　In terms of PPI, Wang Qing said that in August, international crude oil prices fell, driving the overall decline in international bulk commodity prices, and efforts to stabilize the supply and price of domestic industrial raw materials such as coal were also increasing.

As a result, except for some metals, the prices of major means of production generally declined in August.

This will drive the price increase of industrial products to continue the downward trend in the past nine months. It is expected that the PPI in August will be around 3.2% year-on-year, and the increase will be 1 percentage point lower than that in July.

　　"It is expected that the PPI in August will slow down to about 3.0% year-on-year, mainly due to the mixed rise and fall of energy and commodity prices. At the same time, affected by the high base last year, the PPI will further slow down year-on-year." Zhou Maohua said.

　　Pang Ming, chief economist and head of research at Jones Lang LaSalle Greater China, said that it is expected that the PPI in August will continue to decline from the previous month, but the decline may be narrowed, and the year-on-year increase will continue to fall.

　　"The increase in PPI is expected to continue to decline during the year, and the possibility of negative year-on-year growth at the end of the year cannot be ruled out. This will not only ease the cost pressure of downstream enterprises and promote economic recovery, but will also become a positive factor to help maintain the overall stability of the price situation for a period of time in the future. "Wang Qing said.

　　Make every effort to ensure stable supply and stable prices

　　The Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day are approaching, and the consumption of consumer goods such as pork, grain and oil has entered a peak period, and various places have introduced measures to ensure supply and stabilize prices.

For example, on September 2, the Jinan Municipal Development and Reform Commission organized a meeting on supply and price stabilization of important livelihood commodities, requiring strengthening of market price monitoring and early warning, and analyzing and judging price trends in advance; For the people's livelihood commodities such as grain, oil, meat, eggs, and vegetables, which are necessary for the people's basic life, strengthen the supervision of price violations, continue to attack, and make every effort to maintain the stability of the market price order.

　　Talking about what measures should be taken to further stabilize prices, Wang Qing said that considering that the current pig cycle is in the upward phase, in order to avoid the sharp rise in pork prices and promote the CPI to rise rapidly, localities can consider increasing the amount of pork reserves in stages.

At the same time, the scale of pork imports can be moderately increased in the future to ease the pressure on the balance of supply and demand in the domestic market.

Driven by the rise in pork prices, the CPI may face certain structural upward pressure, and the possibility of a year-on-year increase of more than 3% in September cannot be ruled out.

During this period, it is especially necessary to strengthen market communication and stabilize inflation expectations.

　　In terms of PPI, Wang Qing said that the price of international bulk commodities represented by crude oil has recently experienced a downward process, but the prices of international bulk commodities will still face greater volatility in the next few months, and will remain at a relatively high level as a whole.

In order to continue to ease the operating pressure of downstream small and micro enterprises and help economic recovery, the policy of ensuring supply and price stability of important industrial raw materials such as coal and steel in China needs to continue to be strengthened to release high-quality production capacity in an orderly manner.

　　In Pang Ming's view, to do a good job in securing supply and stabilizing prices of bulk commodities, it is necessary to improve the production, supply, storage and sales system, continue to improve domestic resource security capabilities and supply security, and stabilize domestic prices of energy commodities and bulk mineral products.

At the same time, stabilize the sown area of ​​grain and the output of agricultural, forestry and animal husbandry products, especially guide leading enterprises in the industry to strengthen self-discipline, rationally adjust the production structure, effectively improve the quality of output, and maintain a normal production, supply and delivery rhythm.

In addition, the role of reserve adjustment and expected management shall be brought into play, the reserve adjustment mechanism and import and export adjustment function shall be strengthened, and the joint supervision of the futures and spot markets shall be strengthened.

(Securities Daily)