Sino-Singapore Jingwei, September 2 (Yang Jingchuan) "Pork is less than ten yuan per pound in winter, and it has risen a lot recently." In a large supermarket in Fengtai District, Beijing, a pork stall owner said that although the price of pork recently It went higher, but it did not have a significant impact on the sales of its own booth.
When Sino-Singapore Jingwei visited some supermarkets in Beijing, they found that many pork stall owners said that pork prices have risen significantly in recent months.
According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, as of September 1, the average price of pork in the national agricultural wholesale market was 29.76 yuan/kg.
Three months ago, pork prices were still at 20 yuan/kg.
While the price of pigs is at a low level, the performance of listed hog companies is not very optimistic.
In the first half of the year, the "pigmao" Muyuan shares lost more than 6 billion yuan, and Wen's shares and Zhengbang Technology also suffered large losses.
Pig enterprises suffered huge losses, and only one family "survived alone"
On the evening of the 30th, New Hope released a semi-annual report saying that the net loss in the first half of 2022 was 4.14 billion yuan.
So far, the five listed pig companies have all released their results in the first half of the year, with a total loss of over 18 billion yuan.
Judging from the semi-annual reports of the five major pig companies, in terms of net profit attributable to the mother, Muyuan shares lost 6.684 billion yuan, which is in sharp contrast with the profit of over 9 billion yuan in the first half of last year.
Zhengbang Technology and New Hope lost 4.284 billion yuan and 4.14 billion yuan respectively, Wen's shares lost 3.524 billion yuan, and Tianbang Foods made 583 million yuan.
Sino-Singapore Jingwei compared the semi-annual performance of 10 listed pig companies in the A-share Shenwan industry pig breeding sector and found that only Tianbang Foods made a profit, the remaining 6 companies’ net profits turned losses year-on-year, and 3 companies’ losses expanded.
However, Tianbang Foods stated in its semi-annual report that the main contribution to the profit came from the investment income of 1.42 billion yuan from the transfer of 51% of the equity of the subsidiary.
Its net profit after deduction was a loss of 824 million yuan, mainly from the loss of the pig breeding business.
Except for the four major pig companies with high losses, the losses of the other pig companies are relatively small.
Superstar Agriculture and Animal Husbandry, New Ng Fung, Shennong Group, Niuluoshan and Dongrui shares lost a total of 644 million yuan, less than one-tenth of the 6.6 billion yuan loss of "pigmao" Muyuan shares.
In terms of revenue, Muyuan shares increased by 6.57% year-on-year in the first half of the year; Wen's shares and New Hope increased slightly by less than 5% year-on-year in the first half of the year; Zhengbang Technology decreased by 60% year-on-year in the first half of the year, and Tianbang Foods decreased by nearly 30% year-on-year in the first half of the year.
The company with the largest year-on-year revenue growth in the first half of the year was Xin Ng Fung (22.61%), followed by Niu Luoshan (19.29%).
Sino-Singapore Jingwei found that "low pig prices" were attributed to many pig companies as an important reason for poor performance.
Regarding the decline in revenue, Zhengbang Technology said that it was mainly due to the impact of the live pig market, the company scaled down, and the number of live pigs to slaughter decreased; Dawnrays said that it was "mainly caused by the decline in live pig prices." due to a significant year-on-year decrease.
"Pigma" Muyuan Co., Ltd. said that during the reporting period, due to factors such as the continuous rise in grain prices and the impact of winter epidemics, the cost increased compared with last year.
In addition, for the decline in cash flow, Muyuan Co., Ltd. said that it was mainly caused by the decline in the price of live pigs and the decline in operating performance.
In addition, New Hope also mentioned issues such as "low pig prices and rising feed raw material prices". Superstar Agriculture and Animal Husbandry pointed out that with the recovery of live pig production capacity, the domestic live pig slaughter volume continued to increase, resulting in a continuous decline in live pig prices.
Production and sales are improving, how will pig prices go in the future?
However, judging from the July production and sales data disclosed by the five major pig companies, the sales and revenue trends of most companies have improved.
Sino-Singapore Jingwei noticed that, in terms of year-on-year sales volume and year-on-year sales revenue in July, only Zhengbang Technology declined among the five major pig companies.
In terms of specific data, in July, the sales of live pigs by New Hope and Muyuan shares increased by about 50% year-on-year; the sales of pork by Wen's shares increased slightly year-on-year; the sales of commercial pigs by Tianbang Foods increased by more than 10% year-on-year; only the sales of live pigs by Zhengbang Technology decreased year-on-year.
In addition, New Hope, Muyuan Co., Ltd., Wen's Co., Ltd. and Tianbang Foods showed a growth trend in sales revenue from the previous month and year-on-year. Although the sales revenue of Zhengbang Technology increased by more than 10% month-on-month, it fell by more than 70% year-on-year.
As for the improvement of production and sales data, some pig companies also gave their own answers.
New Hope said that the main reason for the large year-on-year increase in the number of live pig sales was the normal release of production capacity, and the main reason for the large year-on-year increase in live pig sales revenue was the sharp increase in live pig sales and the sharp rise in live pig prices.
Wen's Co., Ltd. said that the sales revenue of meat pigs increased month-on-month and year-on-year, mainly due to the month-on-month and year-on-year increase in the sales volume and average sales price of meat pigs.
"The sales volume and sales revenue of the company's live pigs fell significantly year-on-year in July, mainly due to the company's reduction in production capacity." Zhengbang Technology said that the sales volume and sales revenue of live pigs in the first seven months fell significantly year-on-year, mainly due to the decline in domestic live pig prices. and the company's reduction in production capacity.
Sino-Singapore Jingwei also noticed that with the recovery of pig prices, the losses of New Hope, Muyuan and other companies narrowed in the second quarter.
"With the subsequent recovery of the market, the company is expected to gradually achieve better growth and performance through further improvements in efficiency, cost and slaughter volume." New Hope said that in general, it has gone through the most difficult stage.
"At present, the average price of live pigs can cover the full cost, and the operating cash flow of the leading enterprises is expected to turn positive quickly." Western Securities believes that if the price of pigs continues to be high, the leading pig enterprises will turn losses in an all-round way, which will benefit the annual performance.
Guolian Securities said that after entering September, the temperature across the country is expected to drop, which will lead to a rebound in pork consumption. With the addition of school stocking up and the Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day and other holiday consumption incentives, the price of live pigs may be affected by the boost from the consumer side and usher in a phased rise.
CITIC Securities also pointed out that with the reversal of the supply and demand pattern of live pigs, the price of pigs is expected to gradually rise.
Pig prices are rising, and pig farmers are "all expected"?
"One year up, one year flat, one year down".
Generally, the pig industry exhibits cyclical fluctuations, which is the so-called "pig cycle".
Now that the price of pigs has risen, it is good news for both pig companies and small and medium-sized farmers.
"The price of pigs soared in early July, and people came to buy piglets and breeding pigs at 9 pm." Liu Liang, the head of a pig breeding farm in Liaoning, has been raising pigs for more than 20 years.
In his view, the higher price of live pigs has also boosted the enthusiasm of farmers.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, 365.87 million live pigs were sold in the first half of this year, an increase of 8.43% over the same period last year.
The price trend shows that since late March this year, the price of live pigs has been rising.
Among them, the increase in late April and late June both exceeded 10%, and the increase in early July exceeded 20%.
Comparing the price of live pigs in 2022 and 2021, Sino-Singapore Jingwei found that the price of live pigs has generally fluctuated higher and stabilized since the beginning of this year.
The price of live pigs in early June was a watershed between this year and last year.
"I really didn't expect that from June (the price of live pigs) could rise like this."
A person in charge of a local farming and animal husbandry enterprise, who did not want to be named, said that the piglet cost rose from 400 yuan per head in April to 1,200 yuan in early July.
Regarding the rise in the price of live pigs, Zhang Cuixia, chief investment consultant of Jufeng Investment, said that on the one hand, the cumulative effect of being able to breed sows has strengthened the expectation of a recovery in market prices, causing pig companies to be reluctant to sell and hoard; on the other hand, pork demand has increased. As a result, the price of small and medium-sized farmers has risen due to the reluctance to sell.
However, for individual farmers, they don't just want pig prices to "skyrocket".
For them, pig price stability is more important.
"When the market is good, farmers are also under great pressure. Because (pig) prices also make us afraid, we are afraid of stepping on the 'pit' later." Even though he has rich experience in raising pigs, Liu Liang still admitted that the "pig cycle" is becoming more and more The more irregular.
"It increased for 27 months from June 2018 to August 2020, but fell for 19 months from September 2020 to March this year." Liu Liang still remembers that in June last year, he had to pay 200 yuan for selling a piglet .
There are also farmers who expressed the hope that the price of live pigs will remain stable within a certain profit margin.
"Even if a big short-term rise can make a lot of money, I don't want the price to fluctuate frequently, that will only make the future of our pig farming more unclear and confusing." (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
(At the request of the interviewee, Liu Liang is a pseudonym)
(The opinions in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.)
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