On Thursday, September 1, the Russian currency is moderately cheaper on the Moscow Exchange.

During the opening of trading, the dollar exchange rate on the trading floor rose by 0.03% - to 60.25 rubles, and the euro - by 0.12%, to 60.52 rubles.

The national currency is weakening at the first auctions of autumn after a slight strengthening in August.

So, over the last month of summer, the dollar exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange fell by 2.3% to 60.23 rubles, and the euro exchange rate by 3.2% to 60.45 rubles.

In September, the dynamics of the ruble will continue to depend on the state of supply and demand in the Russian foreign exchange market.

Alexander Dzhioev, an analyst at Alfa Capital Management Company, shared this opinion with RT.

Starting from the second half of spring, dollars and euros received from exports come to Russia in significant volumes due to high prices for hydrocarbons.

Meanwhile, business demand for foreign banknotes remained low all this time due to the reduction in the supply of foreign products to the country.

Against this background, according to the latest estimates of the Central Bank, from January to July 2022, the current account surplus of Russia's balance of payments reached almost $167 billion. This is about three times more than in the same period of 2021.

Thus, an overabundance of foreign currency formed on the market, which contributed to the appreciation of the ruble against the dollar and the euro in late spring and during the summer.

However, in the near future the situation may begin to change, Dzhioev did not rule out.

“The state of the country's balance of payments will be the main factor for the ruble.

A stable current account surplus ensures the inflow of foreign currency into the country.

The continued high prices for energy resources in the world will play in favor of the strengthening of the ruble, however, the restoration of import volumes may weaken the national currency,” the expert explained.

As First Deputy Prime Minister Andrey Belousov noted earlier, in the spring, due to the introduction of Western sanctions against Moscow, the import of foreign goods into Russia almost halved compared to last year.

However, at the moment, part of the losses has already been won back, and the volume of imports is at the level of 65-70% of the indicators for 2021.

“The key role here, of course, was played both by rolling out new routes and, most importantly, by allowing parallel imports.

If we had not allowed parallel imports… then, of course, we would now have a completely different picture,” Belousov explained.

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Although demand for foreign currency in Russia is already starting to grow as imports recover, the interest of many companies and citizens in dollars and euros is still weak.

Alexander Bakhtin, investment strategist at BCS World of Investments, spoke about this in an interview with RT.


“We are now witnessing the suppression of demand for dollars and euros from Russian private investors and banks.

For them, these currencies, in fact, have become toxic due to the ongoing sanctions risks,” Bakhtin emphasized.

According to him, in the second half of September, the tax period may provide some support to the ruble.

At this time, exporting companies traditionally sell foreign exchange earnings and buy rubles to pay taxes.

Meanwhile, the actions of the Central Bank may play against the ruble, Bakhtin did not rule out.

According to the analyst, in September the Central Bank may again reduce the key rate.

Such a decision will increase the availability of loans in the country, but will reduce the profitability of bank deposits.

Cheaper loans will help revive the activity of importers, while low interest rates on deposits will make keeping money in ruble accounts less profitable, which could weaken the Russian currency in the long term.

“Reducing the key rate is fundamentally negative for the ruble, but the effect of this factor is not instantaneous, it is spread over time and in itself moderately contributes to the weakening of the national currency.

At the September meeting, we expect the key rate to be reduced from the current 8% to 7.5% per annum,” Alexander Bakhtin added.

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Manual control

In addition, the ruble may react to the restart of the fiscal rule in Russia, analysts say.

Back in July, President Vladimir Putin instructed the government to prepare proposals for adjusting this mechanism.

Previously, in accordance with the budget rule, the state directed oil and gas excess profits (money received from the sale of oil at a price higher than $44.2 per barrel) not for current spending of the treasury, but for the purchase of foreign currency in the National Welfare Fund (NWF).

The authorities have used this practice in recent years to protect the budget and the ruble from fluctuations in oil prices.

At the same time, in early March 2022, the Ministry of Finance suspended the work of the budget rule due to large-scale Western sanctions, the blocking of almost half of Russia's gold and foreign exchange reserves, and a sharp depreciation of the ruble.

At that moment, it was assumed that all oil and gas revenues that would previously have gone to the NWF would now be spent on supporting the economy.

However, already in the second half of spring, the situation in the economy began to gradually stabilize, and the ruble strengthened to a record high, which began to negatively affect budget revenues.

Against this background, the authorities thought about a possible restart of the budget rule for some weakening of the national currency.

“The Ministry of Finance used to put excess profits from oil and gas into foreign currency, into the National Welfare Fund, and so on, within the framework of the budget rule.

Now foreign currency is toxic, but we are ready to do it (invest money. -

RT

) in order to influence the exchange rate, in the currency of friendly countries.

And through the currency of friendly countries, through cross-rates against the dollar and the euro, it will be possible to regulate the value of the dollar and the euro against the ruble through such a ratio, ”said Anton Siluanov, Finance Minister.

At the moment, the government has not yet agreed on the new parameters of the fiscal rule.

Note that earlier the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina spoke out against the resumption of the mechanism.

According to her, artificial management of the exchange rate can only harm the economy and even lead to devaluation in the future.

However, according to experts, in the end, the authorities will still be able to agree.

“Given the previous experience of passing through similar situations in the Russian economy, the Ministry of Finance will definitely lay down possible risks in this case.

Most likely, a compromise will be found, in which the pressure on the exchange rate during the execution of the budget rule will be relatively mild, ”said Ruslan Mustaev, portfolio manager at Otkritie Management Company, in an interview with RT.

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In general, experts interviewed by RT predict a weakening of the ruble against the dollar and the euro in the coming month.

However, analysts do not expect significant exchange rate fluctuations in the foreign exchange market.

“Our benchmarks for the dollar for the coming month are 63-67 rubles, and since the American and European currencies are likely to remain close to parity, the euro can be expected to be close to similar values,” suggested Alexander Bakhtin.

At the same time, the specialist did not rule out that in the event of a restart of the budget rule, rates could rise to the range of 70-73 rubles.

A similar point of view is shared by the head of the analytical department of AMarkets Artyom Deev.

“At the moment, it is extremely difficult to make accurate forecasts, but it will not be surprising if by the end of September the dollar will cost about 70 rubles, and the euro - about 72 rubles per unit.

Either both currencies will be traded at approximately the same level,” concluded Deev.