Technical break: Russia suspended gas supplies to Europe via Nord Stream

On Wednesday, August 31, Nord Stream AG, the operator of Nord Stream, will suspend gas flow through both pipeline strings while the main equipment is being tested.

Preventive work should last until September 2, as previously reported by Gazprom.

“The only operating Trent 60 gas pumping unit will be shut down for three days for maintenance and preventive maintenance.

A set of routine maintenance, in accordance with the current maintenance contract, will be carried out jointly with Siemens specialists,” the report says.

Gazprom noted that, in accordance with Siemens technical documentation, the unit must be prevented every 1,000 hours.

We are talking about cleaning the body and inspecting it for cracks or deformations, checking the operation of safety valves, adjusting the air flow control system and a number of other procedures.

“Gas transport via the Nord Stream gas pipeline will be suspended for three days.

Upon completion of work and the absence of technical malfunctions of the unit, gas transportation will be restored to the level of 33 million cubic meters.

m per day," Gazprom added.

Sanctions obstacles

Recall that Nord Stream gas comes directly from Russia to Germany - from the Portovaya compressor station in the Leningrad Region to the German city of Greifswald - from where it is then transported to other EU countries.

Both lines of the pipeline run along the bottom of the Baltic Sea and allow the pumping of 55 billion cubic meters.

m of fuel per year.

Several gas-pumping units (GCUs) of different capacities are installed at the Portovaya compressor station to supply raw materials via the pipeline.

This equipment is maintained by the German company Siemens.

Since the beginning of the summer of 2022, the capacity of the Portovaya CS has fallen by more than five times - from the planned volume of 167 million cubic meters.

m per day up to 33 million cubic meters.

m. Thus, the pumping of gas from Russia to Germany through the Nord Stream has decreased to about 20% of the total capacity of the pipeline.

It is to this indicator that Gazprom plans to return after September 2 at the end of maintenance.

The reason for the decrease in pumping was the problem with the return of the Siemens turbine to Gazprom after a major overhaul.

Initially, the equipment could not be returned due to anti-Russian sanctions of Canada, where the unit was sent for repair.

Later, at the request of Berlin, Ottawa eased the restrictions and sent the engine, but the unit "got stuck" during transit through Germany.

Now the parties still cannot agree on guarantees and documents for transporting the engine to Russia.

In the meantime, the life of other turbines, with the exception of one necessary for the operation of Nord Stream, has come to an end, and Gazprom has completely turned them off, since it can no longer send them to Canada for major repairs.

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In Europe, the reduction in Russian gas supplies is considered politically motivated.

Relevant statements, for example, were repeatedly made by the German authorities, and at the end of July, the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, accused Moscow of allegedly using energy resources to put pressure on the EU countries.

“(President of Russia Vladimir. -

) Putin uses the gas supplied to us as a means of pressure, and we must be ready,” Borrell noted.

However, according to the press secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov, it is Western sanctions that do not allow normal maintenance of equipment and arrange the return of the necessary units to their places of operation.

There are no other obstacles for Moscow to fulfill its obligations, the Kremlin spokesman stressed.

“There is a guarantee that, apart from technological problems caused by sanctions, nothing interferes with supplies.

Russia was and remains ready to fulfill all its obligations, ”TASS quotes Peskov as saying.

Test of strength

On August 19, Gazprom announced plans to suspend gas pumping through Nord Stream for three days, which immediately provoked a panic in the European energy market.

On the same day, the exchange value of raw materials in the EU rose by 9% to $2.7 thousand per 1 thousand cubic meters.

m, and a week later, on August 26, quotes exceeded $ 3.5 thousand - for the first time since the beginning of March.

Immediately on the eve of the shutdown of Nord Stream, on August 30, gas prices in Europe adjusted to $2.6 thousand. As Natalia Milchkova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global, explained in an interview with RT, investors were somewhat reassured by the news that the filling of EU gas storage facilities had already reached target mark of 80%.

Earlier, the European Commission planned to reach this indicator only by November 1.

“Nevertheless, a temporary cessation of gas supplies via Nord Stream may not have the best effect on Europe and will contribute to maintaining high gas prices.

Most likely, in early September, quotes will continue to fluctuate within $2.5-3.5 per 1,000 cubic meters,” Milchakova added.

Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund, shares a similar point of view.

According to him, against the background of the Nord Stream shutdown, the pace of gas injection into EU storage facilities will slow down, and Europe's current reserves may still not be enough to survive the winter.

“Yes, the Europeans have reached the planned levels of injection, but this does not guarantee a normal heating season.

To successfully get through the winter, uninterrupted gas supplies from Russia are needed, as it has been in the past five years, but now there is much less raw material coming from the Russian Federation, ”said the RT interlocutor.

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In addition to the reduction in gas supplies via Nord Stream, today the pumping of fuel through the Yamal-Europe pipeline has completely stopped due to restrictions from Poland.

At the same time, Ukraine has halved the transit of Russian raw materials through its territory, and the European authorities are still opposed to the launch of Nord Stream 2.

Moreover, if, during the three-day inspection of the last engine for Nord Stream, specialists discover breakdowns that prevent the unit from resuming operation, the pipeline may be turned off for a long time.

This, in turn, will be an additional blow to the EU, Igor Yushkov believes.

“In general, the current situation is a test for the European energy system to see if it can exist without Russian gas.

After all, the problem with the turbines is still not solved, and the last engine can be completely stopped just in time for the beginning of the heating season, since it will also have exhausted its resource by this time.

The issue with turbines needs to be resolved - this is the signal Gazprom gives to the European Union, ”the expert emphasized.

According to him, due to the lack of the required volume of Russian gas supplies, even if the EU storage facilities are filled by 80-90%, the fuel in European reserves may completely run out by the middle of the heating season.

This state of affairs risks turning into an even greater increase in resource prices in the region, the specialist is sure.

“The storage facilities were originally built as an addition to the main flow of pipeline gas.

Of course, in the event of a stalemate, the EU will try to buy liquefied natural gas from anyone it can.

However, trying to lure LNG from other markets as much as possible, Europe will significantly overpay.

So in winter, gas prices can rise to $4,000 or even $5,000,” suggested Igor Yushkov.

Earlier, in order to prepare for possible interruptions in gas supplies, the EU countries decided to jointly reduce fuel consumption by 15% during the heating season.

At the same time, the EU leadership actively encourages the participants in the association to share raw materials with each other if necessary, but a number of states have already opposed this initiative.

According to Natalia Milchakova, countries with large gas reserves will be ready to show such solidarity only for a certain fee.

“Those who managed to provide themselves with gas by winter will probably sell gas to their neighbors from their storage facilities.

And those who did not have time will switch to saving mode.

At the same time, energy-intensive industries can be seriously affected: the chemical industry, petrochemistry, metallurgy, and, most importantly, mineral fertilizer manufacturers, whose production depends on gas, Milchakova concluded.