The decline in Russia's gross domestic product in 2022 may be slightly more than 2%, and in 2023 - about 0.6-0.8%.

On Monday, August 29, this assessment was given by the country's First Deputy Prime Minister Andrey Belousov.

According to him, today the overall situation in the Russian economy looks "better than it was before."

“This creates very good conditions for the growth of real incomes of the population, and for the growth of budget revenues next year and, accordingly, in 2024-2025.

But, of course, we need to fight for this,” Belousov said at a meeting of the presidium of the government commission to increase the stability of the Russian economy in the face of sanctions.

Back in July, experts from the Central Bank of Russia assumed that GDP would fall by 4-6% this year, and by 1-4% next year.

In turn, experts from the Ministry of Economic Development in mid-August predicted a drop in the indicator in 2022 and 2023 by 4.2 and 2.7%, respectively.

As Andrei Belousov noted, industrial production in the country as a whole now remains 4.5% lower compared to the maximum levels in February and seasonally adjusted.

At the same time, while in some sectors of the economy a deeper decline is observed, in a number of sectors, on the contrary, the decline is less significant or does not exist at all.

The government also does not see significant signs for the worsening situation in the labor market.

According to the latest estimates from Rosstat, for two months now, unemployment in the country has remained at around 3.9%, the lowest level in the history of modern Russia.

Nevertheless, the Cabinet warns of the risks of "laying off the employed" in the near future or of their transfer to intermediate forms of work.

In particular, we are talking about a possible increase in part-time employment, a decrease in the salaries of some citizens or their sending on forced leave, Belousov explained.

“The maximum number is somewhere around 200-300 thousand people.

Of course, we can cope with such volumes, but the regions should know, ”added the first deputy chairman of the government.

Also, the country's leadership is waiting for a further decline in inflation in Russia.

Recall that back in April, the growth rate of consumer prices for goods and services in the country rose to 17.83% in annual terms - the highest value in the last 20 years.

However, now the figure has dropped to 14.6%, and by the end of 2022 it could reach 12-13%, Belousov believes.

In addition, there has been a revival of consumer demand in Russia.

The main reason for this was the reduction of the key rate of the Central Bank, the deputy chairman of the government is sure.

In his opinion, in 2022 the decline in consumption in the country will be about 4-4.2%, but already in 2023 the figure will increase by 2.5-3%.

  • First Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Andrey Belousov

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  • © Pavel Bednyakov

The reduction of the key rate by the Central Bank also made it possible to “break the dead center” in lending to non-financial organizations and the corporate sector, the First Deputy Prime Minister added.

This, Belousov believes, together with the recovery in demand, contributed to the overall growth of business activity in the country.

“Businesses seem to have felt this recovery in demand - we see this in business surveys, in PMI indicators, which are now in steadily positive areas.

That is, business expects that the situation will develop positively,” Belousov said.

In addition, he spoke about the state of affairs in trade.

According to him, the situation with energy exports is still uncertain against the backdrop of Western sanctions, while the supply of non-commodity goods in 2022 may decrease by 17% due to the loss of the European market.

“If we talk about the dynamics of imports, it is now at about 65-70% of the previous year, that is, at the peak, we had a drop in imports by about half.

Now the drop in imports is one third, that is, this difference has been won back,” the Deputy Prime Minister added.

At the same time, deliveries of consumer goods to Russia from abroad have almost completely recovered.

This was largely due to the establishment of new trade routes and the launch of parallel imports, Belousov explained.

Adaptation period

One of the main reasons for the improvement of the economic forecast by the government could be the observed increase in energy prices in the world.

Artyom Deev, head of the analytical department at AMarkets, shared this opinion in an interview with RT.

Although, as a result of Western restrictions, the physical volume of deliveries of Russian hydrocarbons abroad has decreased, in monetary terms, exports are still high, the expert noted.

“GDP is a monetary indicator, therefore, the improved estimates of the authorities are associated with an increase in the cost of gas, oil and oil products, coal, and agricultural products.

We are actively exporting all this,” Deev explained.

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In general, the Russian economy turned out to be more adapted to stress than expected, Georgy Ostapkovich, director of the Center for Market Research at the Institute for Statistical Research and the Economics of Knowledge at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, believes.

As the specialist recalled, after the introduction of sanctions at the end of February, the first macroeconomic forecasts were more pessimistic, but now the assessments of the authorities and the expert community have improved markedly.

“It turned out that even in the face of severe restrictions and the withdrawal of many foreign companies from the Russian market, the economy does not give such a sharp and terrible decline.

However, although the decline was not as sharp, it is likely to be longer.

2022 has been a good year in terms of adapting to sanctions, but restrictions have a delayed effect.

They can show themselves more seriously in 2023 or even capture 2024, ”said the RT interlocutor.

According to him, now the country's economic recovery is hindered by several factors.

In particular, we are talking about a declining population, as well as the high dependence of some industries on foreign technologies.

However, the expert does not rule out that by 2024-2025 the country's economy will be able to reach the pre-crisis level.